I really like a couple of things about this - one is the color scheme - big yellow numbers on the nose, and the yellow nose tip. You've got great pics of the planes for reference, (1 color! - I note how the green doesn't look too brown to me). Also that color pic shows the gun muzzle stains pattern - i see now that Itsy Bitsy II's nose tip should be all aluminum, with muzzle stains in the top part darkening it. From the painting I work off of, it just looked like the top half of the nose tip was painted black. NOTE: I don't see that squad art symbol on the radiator housing - the housing looks bare to me...
Might be nice to have a 38 from that theater, too.
Good eye, I never would've spotted that hand on the nacelle! I don't think it blows your theory though - seeing the pic you posted of Col Wray giving the palm-outward rigid digit salute sorta clinched it for me - its gotta be that.
Not sure how keen I feel about creating another skin that needs editing from its true appearance, though. And not sure how HTC feels about 2 skins for the same individual, on the same basic fighter type. Has that been done before?
There is something special about this skin though - is this the plane that got the first kill for a P-38 pilot who went on to become an ace in type? Something like that? I'm sure its historically notable for some reason similar to that...