Author Topic: Thoughts regarding Drake's Equation (Read 1099 times)

bustr · « **Reply #30 on:** April 15, 2005, 06:12:34 PM »

Is there not bacteria in rocks that can survive in vacume and extrem temps?

Thrawn · « **Reply #31 on:** April 15, 2005, 06:25:22 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Chairboy
A note, you credited me with the quote you're responding to, but you took a Skuzzy quote and changed attribution to Chairboy.

Forgot to edit the copy and paste.

vorticon · « **Reply #32 on:** April 15, 2005, 06:54:30 PM »

does the frequency of a radio wave decrease over distance?

Tumor · « **Reply #33 on:** April 15, 2005, 07:31:10 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Skuzzy
It would be truly arrogant to think we are the only some-what intelligent species in the Universe.

AhhhHA!... you watched Cosmos too

Siaf__csf · « **Reply #34 on:** April 17, 2005, 02:22:58 AM »

It takes intelligent life to transmit radiowaves anywhere. Even if the probability of life is high, intelligent life will be much more scarce.

If the development of intelligent life took as long in other planets as it did on earth, we'll receive thier first transmissions after a thousand to several millions of years so be patient.

And I concur with what samiam said.

DREDIOCK · « **Reply #35 on:** April 17, 2005, 07:54:17 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Siaf__csf
It takes intelligent life to transmit radiowaves anywhere. Even if the probability of life is high, intelligent life will be much more scarce.

If the development of intelligent life took as long in other planets as it did on earth, we'll receive thier first transmissions after a thousand to several millions of years so be patient.

And I concur with what samiam said.

that is of course provided such life developed during the same timespan and at teh same moments in time as our own.

Thousand years sooner and we shouls start getting is now.
but hey we could have already missed such transmissions by 100 years as we've only been babbling in radio for around that long. Which is really a mere butterfly sneeze of a moment in time.

Timing is everything

bozon · « **Reply #36 on:** April 17, 2005, 12:29:50 PM »

This equation is horrible science.
Most of the parameters are GREAT unknowns and no uncertainties are stated.

For now, all scientist could detect are Jupiter type planets which are very close to their star. Just a reminder - our solar system is built the other way around: small planets in close orbits, the big gas blobs outside. Having massive Jupiters in inner orbits leads to instabilities of small planets orbits. So in practice, all system in which we can detect planets are poor candidates for detecting life.

A creating of a jupiter planet can be explained by theory (ok, weak). The creation of small planets is much more problemtic and simulations failed so far to explain them. I don't know where the fraction Ne is comming from.

So Fp and Ne have huge errors on them. I got no idea about the conditions needed to develop life, but I know the conditions that cannot develop life (or any complex molecules) simply due to the type of "sun" star. Most system are of the later type.
This equation does not link life-probability to the type of system.

There's a known reasonning stating that the earth is a unique case based simply on assuming no relation between stellar physics and life evolution. Just goes to show that with lausy statistics manipulation you can get any result.

I don't belive we are unique - just very improbable.

Bozon

J_A_B · « **Reply #37 on:** April 18, 2005, 01:28:11 PM »

The problem with science is it's always limited to current human understanding. Trying to understand life on other planets now is like a 16th-century scientist trying to understand nuclear physics--it's just not possible.

Sooner or later, we'll have some sort of breakthrough that is thought "impossible" by current known science, then we'll be able to see firsthand what awaits us in the universe.

There IS a constant--over the centuries, more often than not it's the naysayers who are ultimately proven wrong. The Earth was flat....no, it turned out to be round. Man could never ride without a horse....wait, we can. Man could never fly....but we learned. Man could never make it off the Earth....wait, we did.

J_A_B

Yeager · « **Reply #38 on:** April 18, 2005, 01:36:37 PM »

Life is not unique to this planet.

Siaf__csf · « **Reply #39 on:** April 18, 2005, 01:44:19 PM »

What if we're already doomed as we've sent open radio transmittions for decades, an open invitation for a more advanced hostile alien population to attack us.

Hssshh...