Hey Wolf, how's the Golf out at Post-Grad?
As I posted in the other thread, I'm pretty sure that the ship in the Pictures is the Varyag, the 2nd "Ship of a thousand names" (Tblisi, Brezhnev, Kuznetsov, pick your favorite).
If so, the threat would be real enough for our Interests in Asia. No, they aren't going to sortie and Sink the Kitty Hawk Battle Group tomorrow. But they certainly make things sticky for Japan and Taiwan.
If they could conduct offensive operations off the East coast of Taiwan It would certainly increase the complexity of the Taiwanese defense. Resources that would normally be used to repell the attack from the West would have to be turned about to find and sink the Varyag.
In a conflict over the Spratly Islands, China would have a near insurmountable advantage if they could bring significant air power to the region. I think that with a single CVBG the Chinese could probably brush aside the Philippines and Vietnamese claims.
The question then becomes a political one: How do they divide out the US from taking too active a role in the defense of Taiwan and our other interests in the region. I have no idea how they would plan to do this.
What are you doing out at Post-Grad anyhow?
-Sik