Hi Seagoon,
The "coat hangers and back-alleys scenarios" aspect really does interest me, because it's interesting to look past the political and theological arguments and see through to the impact of it.
Because it's one thing to say "Abortion is murder in the eyes of God", and a whole different ball of wax to deal with the consequences should they get their way.
(That is if the consequences are of any consequence when one holds such an unflinching stance.)
I looked into it a bit just now, and it's widely believed that 30 states would flip to criminilization of abortion should Roe v. Wade get struck down. Many of those already have laws on the books that would automatically go back into effect. Some have so-called trigger laws which would put new criminalization law into effect the minute that decision gets made.
I also found that 1.3 million abortions are performed per year in the United States.
Now, doing sloppy math here (the only kind I know), that means 60% of the country outlaws abortion, meaninng that 780,000 women who otherwise would have gotten an abortion, can't.
That has to be mitigated by the number of women who would travel out of state (the farther south you are, the farther you gotta go). Now I suppose the money and travel aren't going to be a problem to some of these women. To the poor, well they're just going to be out of luck. 'Cuz it's not going to be cheap.
So then, how many of those 780,000 Red State women who had abortions last year won't be able to? Half? More than half? Less than half? Lets just say half, for the sake of argument.
390,000 unwanted pregnancies every year in the United States to impoverished women. That's what that means.
But there's something else to consider which would whittle that number down a little. Those "smokey back room" abortions and the "do-it-yourselfers". So out of those stuck 390,000 women, how many are going to attempt one those? Half? More than half? Less than half? It's probably waaaay less. Lets say 5%.
So now we've got 370,500 unwanted pregnancies, and 19,500 black market or home styled abortions.
Of the later, those 19,500 women, what percentage of those abortions are going to be botched, resulting in requiring proper medical treatment from a hospital, and what percentage are going to result in death?
Lets say 60% of them go off without a hitch, 30% require further treatment, and 10% result in death.
It's rough - admittedly. But based on those numbers, what are we left with?
390,000 women flee their state for an abortion.
370,500 have their unwanted pregnancies.
11,700 get successful illegal abortions.
5,850 face criminal prosecution (for murder?).
1,950 die.
Every year.
