Peak Oil

[jEEZY]

In the late 19th century pre-eminent economist, and noted know it all,  Robert Malthus predicted that the world population would outstrip the food supply. He predicted famine and disease. He had all the scientific facts known at the time. And, indeed, he was correct, if the world would have stayed at the technological level then known. But an amazing thing happened, namely, the world changed. Forces he could not have possible foreseen changed the equations that he based his theories on. Obviously, the world did not starve itself out of existence.

This should serve as the grain of salt with which to understand doomsayers.

[lazs2]

you guys rememeber all the "survivalist" guys that were running around in the late 70's and 80's... allmost had me going... looked like fun.

If all you handwringers would sell your cars there would less of you in my way at the pumps.

lazs

[oboe]

Originally posted by jEEZY
In the late 19th century pre-eminent economist, and noted know it all,  Robert Malthus predicted that the world population would outstrip the food supply. He predicted famine and disease. He had all the scientific facts known at the time. And, indeed, he was correct, if the world would have stayed at the technological level then known. But an amazing thing happened, namely, the world changed. Forces he could not have possible foreseen changed the equations that he based his theories on. Obviously, the world did not starve itself out of existence.

This should serve as the grain of salt with which to understand doomsayers.

I submit to you that the game is not over yet.    But yeah, there are alot of unseen forces out there.

Was Euell Gibbons one fo those survivalist guys?   Or was he just a naturalist?   I never did eat a pine tree.  Though I do like pine nuts.

[lazs2]

he was a naturalist I believe... the survivalists were food and fuel hoarders with a cache of firearms and medical supplies.  They believed in civilizations imminent collapse and anarchy (no such luck)... they were armed to the teeth and used 12 volt systems and all sorts of alternative power sources along with underground diesel tanks... some converted cars or trucks to diesel.

Some of the things they did are fairly common now like wind and solar power and diesel or electric vehicles and... who in their right mind can argue against the prudence of being heavily armed with a good supply of ammo and the ability to make it?

lazs

[jEEZY]

The variables in a problem like this out wiegh anyones ability to understand the current situtation; let alone make predictions of what the situation might be in the future.

I still remember my rather dull high school chemistry teacher decrying the loss of garbage space; he predicted that we would run out of room for garbage in 2005. He obviously never drove through NV.

Anywho, look at who this guy is:

Matt Savinar was born and raised in California. He received his undergraduate degree in Political Science from the University of California at Davis.  He received his law degree from the University of California at Hastings College of the Law, is a California licensed attorney.

He is not an economist, he is not a scientist, or math guy. He is an attorney with a poly sci degree. Trust me on this (I am a CA attorney with a history degree), he is not a very reliable source.

[lazs2]

well put jeezy but... those who like doom and gloom will not be disswayed by a little logic.   They will simply scour the internet for more proof of end of the world...

why do they do it?  damned if I know.

lazs

[AdmRose]

Originally posted by lazs2
well put jeezy but... those who like doom and gloom will not be disswayed by a little logic.   They will simply scour the internet for more proof of end of the world...

why do they do it?  damned if I know.

lazs

Some like being pessimists.

[Nuke33]

Originally posted by jEEZY
Anywho, look at who this guy is:

Matt Savinar was born and raised in California. He received his undergraduate degree in Political Science from the University of California at Davis.  He received his law degree from the University of California at Hastings College of the Law, is a California licensed attorney.

He is not an economist, he is not a scientist, or math guy. He is an attorney with a poly sci degree. Trust me on this (I am a CA attorney with a history degree), he is not a very reliable source.

The fact that he's a lawyer by profession has nothing to do with his ability to direct to reliable sources.. If you've taken the time, like I said to really go through it, you would understand that there are very reliable and convincing arguments..

I also submit as oboe did that the game is not over yet and that there are unforseen forces at work, however something better change and change fast or this will eventually become a reality whether anyone wants to believe it or not in my opinion..

[JB73]

Originally posted by jEEZY
I still remember my rather dull high school chemistry teacher decrying the loss of garbage space; he predicted that we would run out of room for garbage in 2005. He obviously never drove through NV.

i reasearched that in a paper i wrote in college....

back in the early 80's there were all sorts of rumors going around about garbage, and then the whole MOBRO barge incident happened (see here ). the story got blown out of proportion by the media, and the press had a feeding frenzy on the affairs of garbage in the country. of course this barge couldn't go anywhere, all the landfills were full. (oh yeah, the guy trying to profit on the garbage had mob affiliations not mentioned in the major press)

it was almost this incident alone that led to the EPA producing reports on the "epidemic" of garbage.

late in 1999 (i can't find the article now, but it is out there) a man who was no longer with the EPA admitted the reports were flawed, and used erronious calculations. it didn't matter, the damage was done.


just like jEEZY said, even a college professor fell into the trap of mis-information (what a shock LMAO).

here we sit today knowing that the entire pile of garbage for the whole continential US for 100 years can be piled into 1 single fill 30 miles by 30 miles, and 800 feet tall. now it is not feesable to do, but look at the total dimensions. break it up to smaller bits, and it is easily taken care of. the only problem now is NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard).

[jEEZY]

Originally posted by Nuke33
The fact that he's a lawyer by profession has nothing to do with his ability to direct to reliable sources..  

True enough, however, his profession has trained him to advocate. Meaning he is directing you to sites that will support his position without giving you any persepective--that's what he does for a living (although it does not look like he is presently employed).

I am not saying he is trying to mislead you. But he is probably got an agenda, and is trying to argue his point. I looked at his sources, indeed many of them are legit. But I could prove any number of doomsday scenerios with legit statistics. Like running out of food, or the spread of epidemic disease, or dying by violent crime, or global climate change.

But the issue is when does reseach turn in to advocacy. I fear the two have become so interetwined in our society that one cannot rightfully tell the difference from the other.

[Tuomio]

Peak oil might have positive effects too. We western people have the money and factories to start using alternative energy storaging methods quickly. Most likely gasoline will be replaced by various different methods competiting eachothers. Its not hard to imagine something good coming out from such competition.

However, poor countries cannot adapt and their economies could take much bigger hits while ours might actually get a boost (at their expense probably).

Things will change, but thats the nature of life. Change is good and the faster we have to face it the better.

[oboe]

Not that I'm quaking in my boots about the end of the world, or stockpiling food, medicine and ammo, but what is the "little logic" that is supposed to reassure me?

Don't Worry, be Happy?   Something will turn up that will prevent the catastrophe, because it always has in the past?

He discounts ethanol as an alternative fuel source, because it takes more energy as input to make a unit of ethanol than the ethanol delivers in return.   I have heard that before, yet my State is getting pretty hooked on ethanol because its appealing politically - its another market for the farmers' corn.

I don't think everything he says is bunk - I haven't read anything on his site that I know to be untrue.   I just think he has connected the dots and drawn a practically impossible worst case scenario conclusion - the end of civilization as we know it.     Interestingly, he doesn't have a magic product for sale that will save you - he just offers educational materials that reinforce his beliefs.

The theory I have about pessimists/optimists is that it corresponds to a person's appearance--optimists tend to be good looking; pessimists not so much.    Obviously, then, Mr. Savinar has a face only a mother could love...

[oboe]

Originally posted by jEEZY
...But the issue is when does reseach turn in to advocacy. I fear the two have become so interetwined in our society that one cannot rightfully tell the difference from the other.

I think this is true as well.   At times it seems there really is no objective science being done anymore.

[Yeager]

Invest in horse brokers and carriage manufacturers....buy property and grow horse food.  As a thing expands, it will inevitably retract, then expand again...and the cycle repeats itself again and again.  When its all said and done it wont matter anyway because you were never here to begin with.

[stantond]

The depencence on oil is driven by economics.  As oil gets more expensive, alternative energy sources will become competitive in cost.  Eventually, someone will come up with high energy density light weight battery technology which will open a whole new era in renewable energy.  Maybe someone will figure out how to make nuclear fission waste non-hazardous.  

Until then, revel that people figured out what to do with all that black gunk that used to just contaiminate the farmland.  Maybe, just maybe, by 2050 we can deplete all the oil reserves from the middle east.  I support that.  



Regards,

Malta