This is going to be a long war, a guerrilla war

[leonid]

It will be across continents, spanning the globe, and requiring the participation of a great many nations.  It will be a world guerrilla war that may last as long as a decade, or longer.  It won't be clean, and losses among the civilian population will most likely continue as the struggle continues.  But, it must be done, because there is no alternative.

What must also be done is to try and resolve long standing conflicts like Northern Ireland and Israel/Palestine, but with the aim of peaceful resolution.  If this is not done, then terrorism will never truly cease.

The world has some rough years ahead, but if we stick together as nations and maintain our values, there may be a better world to look forward to.

[newguy2]

There will be one thing different here compared to other guerrilla wars. No one will be sending them the supplies needed to fight it. In retrospect, How long could have either Vietnam or Afghanistan held out without the supplies that the west and the east send in? I don't believe the mideast has much of a manufacture base. Any surrounding mideast country trying to supply them, would be the next target.

[leonid]

I disagree.  Much of bin Laden's financing has been through sympathizers in the more affluent classes of the Arab world.  Trying to find these trails within a free financial market will be quite a job.  Also, communication are over the internet, using encyption programs like PGP, and placing these documents in the most unlikely of places, like porn sites.  

This war will cross many boundaries, like finance and education, as well as the more usual country and political ones.  Those people who committed this act were all older with family and kids, not angry young 22 year olds.

This war will be a combination of clandestine raids and ambushes within the civilian world, as well as the possible regular war in countries that continue to harbor terrorists.  And to be honest, the big war will be the one in the shadows, amongst us, rather than the more conventional ones, using regular military forces.

Like I said, we have a long haul ahead of us.  But it must be resolved.

It will be interesting to watch and see how much all this impacts on our civil liberties, as indeed, they must if we have any hope of getting them in our own, or the world's, backyard.  But, at this point, there really is no choice.

[ 09-16-2001: Message edited by: leonid ]

[newguy2]

Were talking about to diffrent things I believe.

  Your talking about money, I'm talking about supplies. Without a constant flow of hardware, ie. guns, firing pins, ammo, medical items, spare parts and ammo for RPGs, arty rounds, arty spare parts so on. Any war, guerrilla or not will need a constant supply of even the most basic items to remain effective.

   Vietnam and Afghanistan are a good case in point. Do you believe they paid hard cash from both the west and the east for the hardware they needed to remain in the fight? Or was it given to them because the superpowers were at that time playing chess?

    The counties in the Mideast are not self effcient when it comes to military hardware. There is no manufacturing base to replace equiment loss in the field. There is no superpower to contantly pour in needed military supplies as was the case in all successful guerrilla wars fought since WW2.

     Both the US and Russia have been the primary source for all military supplies in used by all of the mideast. Russia claims they are going to support us in this. No supply source. Sure there arms dealers out there that will sell anything they can get their hands on, at what cost? AK spare part kits that went for 10 bucks today could be 1000 tomorrow. Supply and demand thing.

  Guerrilla war? If I was them that's how I'd fight it. I don't feel they can mantain it.

BTW, I'm refering to a guerrilla war that results from occupying ground forces. I'd expect attacks on western civilian targets to be stepped up as this unfolds.

[ 09-17-2001: Message edited by: newguy2 ]

[Pepe]

Let me impersonate a FDB and say this is about the best excuse to visit pron sites I've heard up to date. Let's track & report those messages! Thks Leonid!  

On the serious issue, free world must unite against these fanatics. There is a very, very difficult issue to address: these muslim fanatics have effectively used arab anger against west to unite themselves. Just like they have done with us with their infamous act. And they've effectively set up a linked financial network wich is very hard to track, with the current legal situation.

Problem with this, if we are coherent, and we hit harboring countries, the list is pretty big. Talking withoug checking financial links with fanatics, these names come to mind: Algeria, Lybia, Irak, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan....Pretty big indeed. If we relate to financial ties, Gulf States will have to give lots of explanations, and disclose lots of information, not sure if they will. Albania needs a scrutiny too, in terms of terrorist's safe haven...

And this is only taking into consideration muslim fanatic terrorists.

Besides the unavoidable military action, intelligence one has to be taken. Especially focused on financials, IMHO. And, in this field, we (not just U.S. but the whole free world) need new laws with regards to capital flows, corporate ownership and bank accounting. Countries like Switzerland, Liechtenstain, Channel Islands, Jersey, Delaware corporations, that is, tax havens of whatever nature have to be transparent to our governments. Account ownership and Shareholders' names have to be public. Not corporate names but individuals' ones. Go down the chain, and know WHO is physically behind corporations/trusts/foundations names.

What begun with tax "optimization" have turned into something much more dangerous. We've been dealing with this (drug money, for instance) for a long time, with little results. It's time to solve the information issue. Now it's even more important.

Cheers,

Pepe

[leonid]

Newguy,

I think terrorists merely need to get in country in the USA, then they'll be able to purchase whatever weapons they need.  WTC proved you don't need an army to kill 5,000 civilians.  Just time and money.

And I believe terrorism is a form of guerrilla warfare.  It is used to defeat an adversary by demoralization by forces that are elusive and that only strike at weakpoints.  These forces melt into the civilian population when necessary.  

To me, terrorism is an offensive form of guerrilla warfare.  This results in a sympathetic civilian base that is almost always in another country than the one terrorists are attacking.  Whether terrorists can establish secret bases in the countries they are attacking remains to be seen, but it will need to be something they will have to consider, should nations hosting terrorists be attacked.  You don't need a rifle range to teach someone how to flick a bomb switch, or fly a commercial aircraft, or drive a car, or make a bomb.  You really just need money and the time to acquire those skills.

[ 09-17-2001: Message edited by: leonid ]

[leonid]

Btw, just because I'm talking all analytical here doesn't mean that I have no real fears for the future.  Terrorism means we are all possible victims at any time, and I think this is going to be hanging over our heads for awhile, especially since the 'ante' just went through the roof.  It's made me rethink a lot of things lately on a personal level, and I still need to sit down and seriously reflect on all this.  I can't tell you how worried I am for my son's future.