China making nuke threats???!!!

[greentail]

W. will not go to war with China. In the last confrontation with them, our fearless leader apologised for making them shoot down our recon plane, remember?

[Fishu]

Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Wow Fishu, it must all be so simple in your mind. Pretty amazing...

Yeah well, it made you to resort to the ages old defense without an argument.

[Wolfala]

Originally posted by greentail
W. will not go to war with China. In the last confrontation with them, our fearless leader apologised for making them shoot down our recon plane, remember?

Which, is flying again and the pilot who had his head chopped off by the propeller was villified by his superiors for 'hot dogging'.

[Hangtime]

Fishu.. yer just jealous because the Chinese don't want to buy Finland.

And, you have Walmart Envy.

[Wolfala]

US DoD Ponders China Threat


by Ted McKenna
Jul. 13, 2005


 
 
 
Insurgencies, terrorists, asymmetric warfare - these are threats that the US military is being revamped to tackle more effectively in the years to come. The Army is creating self-sustaining brigades (see "Renaissance Soldiers"), for instance, for smaller deployments, and the Navy is designing lighter ships for operating in littoral areas (see "Building of US Navy's LCS to Begin").


China has been steadily expanding its fleet of submarines, as well as acquiring new surface-to-air missiles. Western defense analysts debate whether fears of an impending invasion of Taiwan are justified or overblown.

But what about more old-fashioned, conventional threats? In molding its fighting forces to more effectively fight the "Global War on Terrorism," will the US overlook potential state-based threats like that of China, which some defense analysts believe is willing to trigger war with the US by invading Taiwan?

Concerns about China color the development of strategic documents like the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) that the US Defense Department is expected to complete this year, according to panelists at a July 7 forum sponsored by the Heritage Foundation research group on "The 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review: China and Space – the Unmentionables."

For now, much of the focus of the US military appears to be on battling asymmetric warfare, as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as protecting domestic borders. These concerns are expected to be at the heart of US future defense strategy, as expressed in, among other things, the next Quadrennial Defense Review (see "Guessing Game: Quadrennial Defense Review 2005").

But concerns about China's military intentions, though, including suspicions in some quarters – whether founded or not – that it might seek to try to take out US satellite capabilities in the event of a conflict (see "Is Space Weaponization Inevitable?"), appear to be a significant factor in how the US calculates the importance of technologies and weapons systems such as sophisticated fighter aircraft like the F/A-22 that are not so useful for fighting terrorists or insurgents but are critical to waging war with major states.

Strong trade between the US and China to some extent muffles the drumbeat to war that more conservative commentators on China appear to hear. Economics ties between China and the US are significant, with the US economy basically dependent on China for its strong consumer spending. Dr. Michael Krepon, president emeritus of the Henry L. Stimson Center, noted that 70% of the goods sold by the largest US retailer, Wal-Mart, are made in China. China also holds some $230 billion in US debt, on which the US last year paid interest to China of some $9.8 billion.

As seen in government reports such as the annual one issued by the Pentagon on China's military capabilities, the most recent version of which was due to be provided to Congress on March 1 but has been delayed, the US military clearly keeps tabs on what it sees as a major country making significant investments in its military capabilities. Recent comments from officials like Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld indicate growing suspicion about Chinese intentions.

China now has the third-largest military in the world, according to Rumsfeld in a recent speech in Singapore, and continues to acquire advanced technology. "One might be concerned that this buildup is putting the delicate military balance in the region at risk – especially, but not only, with respect to Taiwan," Rumsfeld said. "Since no nation threatens China, one wonders – why this growing investment?" (For more on Taiwan-China tensions, see "Flashpoint Taiwan Straits.")

The New Red Menace?

Dr. David Finkelstein, the director of Project Asia at the CNA Corporation research group, said the Chinese People's Libation Army (PLA), inspired by the technology used by US forces in the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War, including precision-guided weapons, has been "transforming" its force with network-centric capabilities since the mid-1990s. This transformation includes not just acquisition of the technology – from new radar and navigation devices to submarines, both diesel- and nuclear-powered – but also the doctrines that dictate how the technology is used.


The Chinese military, since at least the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War, has recognized the importance of space to military navigation, weapons targeting, and other aspects of modern war, and has sought to build up its satellite launch and operational capabilities. Shown here is the Jiuquan Space Launch Center in northwest China.
Space Imaging

"What US officials and others have been describing as new capabilities are actually the result of decade-plus reform by the PLA," according to Finkelstein. "The '91 Gulf War had a profound affect on the PLA, and it forced the PLA to conclude that they were 20 years behind other militaries and ill-equipped to function in the modern world."

Part of the PLA's transformation has been the reduction in its forces, most recently with a cut of 200,000. According to theories about network-centric warfare, new communications and precision-guided weapons should more than compensate for a reduction in forces. As the PLA has transformed itself, moreover, its focus on certain types of military acquisitions indicate an interest in invading Taiwan and defending against military opposition to such an invasion, according John J. Tkacik, a research fellow on China policy at the Heritage Foundation, who said the country's submarine fleet currently numbers 69 and is expected to grow to at least 89.

Some defense experts say that the US DoD may be overestimating China's defense spending. A US Air Force-sponsored report in May by the Rand Corporation research group estimated China's defense budget in 2003 at between $31 billion and $38 billion. While actual defense spending by China may have been around 1.7 times what China officially admitted to spending on defense procurement, the report found, it was not anywhere near the $60 billion or so that the Pentagon has estimated.

Does China serve as an excuse for acquiring big-ticket defense items that were originally conceived of during the Cold War? Both the US Air Force (USAF) and the Navy, as well as the Army, are scrambling to create new strategies and budgets in the face of the developing "21st century security environment," with the changing production plans for the F/A-22 aircraft being just one example. Where the USAF had once planned to build over 500, today that number has been reduced by budget cuts to 170, though officials argue that more would be needed to effectively oppose a large, conventional military such as China's.

The Navy, meanwhile, though it is attempting to develop new types of smaller ships , is still organized as if on call to re-fight the Battle of Midway, said a former Naval officer attending at recent speech by US Army Secretary Francis Harvey on the Army's 2006 strategy. "China is everyone's reason for a big Navy," he said.

For its part, the Chinese government has sought to downplay its increased defense spending as a military threat. For example, in a recent opinion piece that ran in the government-sponsored English-language People's Daily Online website, the notion of China as a military threat is ascribed to "US right-wing forces and military, [which] are accustomed to regarding China as the 'target' so as to consolidate [their] power and position in the US political circles."

[GRUNHERZ]

Originally posted by Fishu
Yeah well, it made you to resort to the ages old defense without an argument.

Why do you expect anyone to respond to an argument on the sucess of communist economics based on you: "Just Ask Boroda."

You go on thinking that china can just stop doing business with the USA without incurring terrible damage to itself.

It's much simpler that way for you and it makes you happy.

[Wolfala]

Flashpoint Taiwan Straits
A look at one of the most dangerous places in the world

Articles from the Journal of Electronic Defense and Edefenseonline


by Kenneth B. Sherman
Mar. 16, 2005


 
 
 
In May 2004, a flotilla of Chinese warships sailed slowly down the length of Hong Kong's Victoria Harbor in an effective show of force. Officially, the People's Liberation Army described the visit as "an event to honor the PLA Navy's 55th anniversary." Clearly, the subtext was that the People's Republic of China (PRC) was striding confidently on the world stage. This display – the first since the colony's return to China in 1997 – came as pro-democracy advocates were grumbling about Beijing's clamp-down on any appearance of self-determination for the former British colony. Two guided-missile destroyers (Shenzhen and Harbin, Sovremmenyy-class guided-missile destroyers purchased from Russia), four guided-missile frigates, and two submarines with their crews standing topside in dress whites demonstrated China's military strength.


The guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) leads the People's Liberation Army Navy guided-missile destroyer Shenzhen (DDG-167) into Apra Harbor, Guam, during a port call in October 2003. The Shenzhen and the oiler Qinghai Hu (AO-885) made the People's Republic of China's (PRC) first ever naval port call to the island. By all accounts, the PRC is working on developing a true blue-water navy.

While Hong Kong was the venue where Beijing showed the flag, clearly it hoped other eyes were watching as well. Previous demonstrations have been more forward. In the fall of 2003, Beijing sailed a Type 035 Ming-class submarine through the Osumi Strait, about 25 miles off Japan's coast. Startled, Japan didn't know about the presence of this sub until it surfaced. Japan then responded by trailing it with one of its P-3C aircraft. Embarrassingly, the Type 035 is a remodeled Romeo-class submarine, an antique design based upon the German Type-21 U-boat of 1944. Just to make sure no one missed the point, the diesel-electric sub flew the PRC's red flag. The sub then submerged and went on its way, leaving an agitated Japanese public to wonder what the hell had just happened and what it meant.

The submarine reportedly belonged to the East Sea Fleet of the PLA Navy and may have sailed from Zhoushan, in Zhejiang Province. This fleet's major mission is reportedly focused exclusively on Taiwan. It is also capable of blockading the East China Sea and hence stopping US aid from the sea.

Such points are not lost on Taiwan. In August 2004, Taiwan Prime Minister Yu Shyi-kun stated that the PRC is busy mapping underwater topography in the Pacific in preparation for an eventual conflict with the United States there. Chinese surveillance ships have passed close by Japan over 20 times since 2003, frequently tweaking Taiwan by passing just east of the island. Such underwater mapping could be, of course, a prelude to conducting submarine operations in the area. According to press reports, Yu said Beijing's aim was to break the US defense line in the western Pacific – a line that runs through Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines. Another report quoted him as saying: "Communist Chinese forces are coming to the Pacific Ocean for a confrontation with the United States. This causes a threat to security in the Asia Pacific."

Building Up

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is huge. The PLA Ground Force has 1.9 million men, 14,000 tanks, 14,500 artillery pieces, and 450 helicopters. The PLA Air Force has 470,000 airmen, 2,550 jet fighters, and 400 ground-attack jets. The PLA Navy has 250,000 sailors, more than 70 submarines of all ages and conditions, including the Han nuclear attack and Xia ballistic missile boats; 20 destroyers; 35 frigates; and numerous other craft. There are also the Second Artillery Force (Strategic Missile Force) and the Peoples Armed Police.

Writer Jeff Head, author of the "Dragon's Fury" series of novels about a coming war between China and the US (http://www.dragonsfuryseries.com) said that the Chinese are currently embarked on a major shipbuilding program for their navy, a massive buildup where they are currently deploying seven new major ship classes at one time, building up to two of these new ships in each class per year. These include two more Project 956 Sovremennyy-class guided-missile destroyers (DDGs), the Type 52B DDG, the Type 52C Aegis-like DDG, the Type 54 guided-missile frigate, the brand new Yuan-class diesel attack sub (to augment the advanced Kilo-class (Project 636) they purchased from the Russians), the Project 093 nuclear attack sub, and the Type 094 nuclear missile sub.

The Project 965 Sovremennyy guided-missile destroyers are equipped with the improved P-270 (3M80) Moskit (NATO: Sunburn) anti-ship missile with a range of 140 miles (see "Cruiser and Destroyer Killers"). This missile is also likely to be installed aboard Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers and Jiangwei-class frigates. Russia is also said to be selling China eight Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines equipped with the Klub-S submarine-launched anti-ship missile. And in May, 2003, the PRC launched its first destroyer equipped with a domestically built advanced ship missile system (ASMS) for area air defense. The Aegis-like system has been dubbed "the magic shield of China." The PLAN thus joins the US, Russian, Japanese, and (South) Korean navies as the only ones in the region that possess such technology. Such an ASMS permits a fleet or task force to defend itself from multiple missile attacks launched from any direction. The Magic Shield ship reportedly embodies a semi-stealth shape with radar-absorbing and -deflecting materials above the main deck. It is said to carry a Chinese-made, four-faceted, phased-array radar similar to the Aegis' SPY-1D(V) three-coordinate phased-array radar. The Magic Shield destroyer carries far less sophisticated weapons, including a single 100mm main gun and a vertical-launch missile system carrying both anti-ship and air-defense missiles that are reported to be less sophisticated than those carried by its Aegis counterparts.

In May 2004, several photographs appeared in the West of an apparently new class of Chinese submarine being built at the Wuhan shipyard, 420 miles west of Shanghai. It appears to be slightly larger than the Soviet-designed Kilo class, officially named Project 636. The US Department of Defense (DoD) has dubbed this new sub the Yuan class (class 04X). Its design appears to have drawn some features from both the 039A Song class and the Kilo. The Chinese press claims that the Yuan is an improved version of the Kilo, modified with an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system, the current nightmare for the anti-submarine warfare community as it allows a diesel sub to remain submerged for days without snorkeling and thus be essentially undetectable using passive sonar when running on batteries. While Washington initially discounted the Chinese claims, further analysis of pictures has caused something of a stir in Western naval circles. Aside from AIP, the Yuan appears to have a larger hull, diving planes on the sail vs. the hull (as most US subs long have had), and other differences. The Yuan is also believed to be capable of launching YJ-8 series anti-ship cruise missiles as well as carrying 533mm wire-guided torpedoes. One source suggests that the Yuan incorporates a double-hull design integrated with advanced noise reduction techniques, including anechoic tiles, passive/active noise reduction, and an asymmetrical seven-bladed skewed propeller of the type long favored by the West but difficult to produce.


China received its first 30 Su-30MKKs in 2000. Subsequently, the PRC has acquired more while arming them with a variety of weapons, including the Kh-29T air-to-surface missiles, and the KAB-500Kr glide-bomb. It also carries the Gsh-301 cannon and several types of air-to-air missiles. In 2002 China upgraded its Su-30s with the C-801 anti-ship cruise missile.

PLA Air Force

The PRC is in fact in the midst of a major submarine-building effort, and will soon have more classes of subs than any other country. China is believed to think of its subs as its first line of naval power, as the aircraft carrier is for the US Navy. Unable to compete in aircraft carriers with the US any time in the foreseeable future, China seems to be creating a sub force that has offensive as well as defensive capabilities. With approximately 57 submarines now, China may soon have over 100 fully operational boats, despite the huge cost of the effort. Recently, the PLA Navy appointed a submarine-trained admiral as its top officer, another event signaling the importance of submarines to its plans.

In comparison, the armed forces of Taiwan number approximately 430,000 for all services, plus 3.8 million reservists of varying degrees of usefulness; conscription remains universal for men. Taiwan is decreasing the size of its military with a targeted end strength of 270,000 by 2012. Taiwan traditionally has had far more sophisticated military equipment than China, thanks to continued support from the US. Head notes that this is changing as China comes online with such aircraft as the Su-27 and Su-30, as well as so many new ship classes. When you consider the new Type 52B and Type 52C vessels, along with the Sovremennyys, Kilos, Type 093 and Yuan subs, the ROC must get AEGIS destroyers quickly or they will be in danger of falling behind since China is now developing its own Aegis-type system (see below). While Taiwan has benefited from such aging weapons systems as early-model F-16 fighters and Perry-class guided-missile frigates, rearming Taiwan is one of the Pacific's continuing hot buttons.

[Wolfala]

The Politics of Protection

In particular, Taiwan's attempt to update its submarine force has had more twists than a mystery novel. Taiwan currently has two Dutch-made Zwaardvis-class diesel-electric submarines, launched in the early 1970s. The vessels carry the Argos 700 radar-warning receiver and the SPR-06/00 S-Ku band electronic-support-measures (ESM) system using a BBR-05/00 receiver and an EIS-1 classifier, as well as the HSA Mk8 fire-control system. Taiwan's two other submarines are ex-US Guppys. Launched in the 1950s and last updated in the 1960s, they were equipped with the vintage EDO BQR, the Raytheon/EDO BQ5 4C, and the Thompson (now Thales) Smtra DOOG 1B active/passive sonar. Now barely able to dive to 200 feet, they are on their last sea-legs. As recently as June 2004, Taiwan continued to insist that it was preparing for the biggest weapons purchase in history: an $18-billion buy to include not four but eight submarines, plus a fleet of anti-submarine aircraft and a modified version of the Patriot anti-missile system.

Having examined the submarine issue exhaustively – even considering building eight updated Barbel-class diesel-electric submarines for Taiwan – the US has most recently suggested that Taipei again start a parallel effort of shopping for used submarines, perhaps from the same European countries that have until now steadfastly avoided doing anything that might displease Beijing. At various times during the past two years, the following have been named as possible sources for new subs for Taiwan: General Dynamics Electric Boat, teamed with Collins-class submarine maker Australian Submarine Corp.; German company STN Atlas; German shipyard Howaldswerke Deutsche Werft (HDW), maker of the Type U-212/U-214; Raytheon; Holland's R.D.M., maker of the Moray-class attack sub; Northrop Grumman Litton Ingalls Shipbuilding yards in Pascagoula; Lockheed Martin; and even possibly Israel, which co-produced its Gal-class attack subs, since decommissioned.

As far back as 2001, Taiwan was said to have been working with Australia to purchase of country's Collins-class subs. The Collins, a major potential export for Australia, has performed very well in naval exercises worldwide, even "sinking" a US Los Angeles-class boat in a 2004 exercise that the US Navy refuses to discuss. Plans for Taiwan to acquire these boats have remained hard aground. RADM John Butler of the US Navy's Program Executive Office for Submarines recently told the Asian press that the US is ready to issue a request for proposals for submarines as soon as Taiwan commits the necessary initial funds, estimated at $300 million. Nevertheless, RADM Butler acknowledged that this seems unlikely before 2006.


With the US Navy quickly retiring 40% of its P-3C airplane fleet to save money, these aircraft are almost certain to enter the export market in the near future. Taiwan is a likely customer, despite a recent report that Taiwan may have delayed its decision to buy P-3C aircraft. Furthermore, in order to resolve the issue of obtaining more modern naval aircraft, Taipei had also raised the possibility of buying used P-3Bs from the US Navy.

US Navy

The issue of money is secondary to one of politics. Europe remains resistant to any plan that might annoy Beijing, which is featuring more prominently in Continental diplomacy. In 2003 the Chicago-based Bank One Equity Partners quietly purchased Germany's HDW shipyard, considered by Germany to be one of its defense-industrial crown jewels, for $875 million when engineering company Babcock-Borsig declared bankruptcy. Bank One Equity had apparently hoped the acquisition would allow it to team with Northrop Grumman to furnish Taiwan with eight new diesel-electric submarines, a potential multibillion-dollar deal. Northrop Grumman, in turn, indicated it was considering using advanced hull-design and composite-materials technologies developed by Swedish sub-maker Kockums, which HDW acquired in its bid for the US Navy's Littoral Combat Ship program.

Faced with the PRC's displeasure, Germany balked at the deal, saying it wouldn't allow HDW designs or technologies to be used to build submarines for Taiwan. Adding insult to injury, Germany then announced its willingness to allow HDW to instead become part of a Franco-German group, ostensibly favoring seeing HDW "in European hands, with Franco-German cooperation." Such a deal shut the door on Taiwan. Moreover, French President Jacques Chirac has led the drive to ease European Union (EU) sanctions on arms sales to Beijing imposed after the Tiananmen Square massacre of students in 1989 (see "Controversy Dogs EU-China Arms Ban").

On a more successful note, Taiwan has gone ahead with the purchase of four ex-Kidd-class destroyers from the US for $850 million. In fact, Taiwan is reorganizing its navy around four task forces, each with a Kidd as the primary combatant. The Kidds are built on Spruance hulls but provide far more robust anti-air and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. In August of last year, Reuters reported that despite an absence of any formal announcement, the US is moving closer to agreeing to sell Taiwan Aegis technology, perhaps in the form of Ticonderoga-class cruisers that the US is beginning to retire. That same month, the US leaked plans to sell Taiwan four anti-missile warships equipped with high-powered radar systems, with delivery to begin by 2011.

Historically, the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan's official name) Navy (ROCN) has been organized around Task Force 62, the name the US gave the ROCN in signifying allied relations between the two countries. Once it receives the four ex-Kidds, however, Taiwan will create Task Force 63, to be composed of several detachments of Kidds, plus ex-Knox-class frigates, ex-Lafayette-class frigates purchased from France, and Chengkung-class frigates. Submarines are also planned for the mix. Taiwan currently has just four aging subs. Under Taiwan's plan, a wartime Task Force is a temporary grouping of seven to eight detachments, each with a mixture of ships. In peacetime the navy's warships are deployed in administrative groupings of the same class ship at one base or patrol area. The establishment of the Task Force 63 is expected to give the ROCN greater survivability and firepower in the battlefield, with the four ex-Kidd-class destroyers becoming the flagships of separate detachments of the task force. The Kidds have substantially more powerful radars and longer-range air-defense missiles than other ROCN ships. In peacetime Task Force 63 is to be commanded by the chief of the educational training and doctrine development command, indicating a change in traditional Taiwanese military doctrine in line with US thinking.

With the US Navy quickly retiring 40% of its P-3C airplane fleet to save money, these aircraft are almost certain to enter the export market in the near future. Taiwan is a likely customer, despite a recent report that it may have delayed its decision to buy P-3C aircraft. A source at Lockheed Martin said that both Taiwan and India are continuing to actively discuss details of just such purchases. Furthermore, in order to resolve the issue of obtaining more modern naval aircraft, Taipei had also raised the possibility of buying used P-3Bs from the US Navy, the TACNAVMOD version of which is comparable to the P-3C Update II.


The PLA Navy destroyer Harbin (DD-112) pulls into Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on March 9, 1997. The Harbin and two other PRC ships visited Hawaii as part of a goodwill visit between the US and Chinese navies. The ships continued on to San Diego, CA, for a first-ever visit by PLA Navy ships to the mainland US. The US and the People's Republic of China navies are the two largest fleets in the Asia-Pacific region.
US Navy
The Dragon's Wings

China is serious about upgrading its air force as well as its navy. In February 2004, the PLA purchased 100 Su-30MKK fighters from Russia for its Air Force and Navy. An upgrade over earlier Su-30s, the naval version is designed to fly from aircraft carriers, although the Chinese version of such a ship more closely resembles that of a US helicopter assault ship such as the USS Austin (LPD-4) or the new San Antonio class. The new aircraft can carry the Kh-31 anti-ship missile, putting it squarely in line with Beijing's concern about US naval forces and their potential role in protecting Taiwan from an invasion from the mainland. The Su-30 is also an air-superiority fighter and, thus, a direct threat to both US and Taiwanese air forces.

The Su-30MKK is a two-seat multirole fighter developed from the less capable Su-27 Flanker. China received its first 30 Su-30s in 2000. Subsequently, the PRC has acquired more while arming them with a variety of weapons, including the Kh-29T air-to-surface missiles, and the KAB-500Kr glide-bomb. It also carries the Gsh-301 cannon and several types of air-to-air missiles. In 2002, China upgraded its Su-30s with the C-801 anti-ship cruise missile, modeled after the French Exocet anti-ship missile. This weapon is also deployed aboard Chinese combat ships and subs as the C-802. The Su-30 is a demanding aircraft, and at least one is rumored to have crashed during training of Chinese pilots.

As of May 2003, the PLAAF was equipped with Su-30s at the 1st Regiment of the 1st Division, based in Anshan; the 4th fighter regiment of the 2nd Air Division at ShuiXi; the 9th fighter regiment of the 3rd Air Division at Wuhu; a regiment of the 19th Air Division at Zhengzhou; a regiment of the 28th Division at Quzhou; and the 90th fighter regiment of the 33rd Air Division at Chongqing. Between 21 to 38 Su-30MKKs are at the Flight Test Center at Cangzhou near Beijing. Another formation might be in the process of conversion, this likely to be a regiment in the 29th Division at Quzhou near Nanjing, formerly equipped with J-7Ds.

[Wolfala]

The 14th Division in the Nanjing military region, which also acts as a Blue Flag Aggressor force, may also be equipped with a number of Su-27s. Typically, Su-30s and Su-27s serve together in the same outfit. A PLA air regiment consists of 20-40 aircraft.

 In 2003 the PLA Navy was confirmed to have armed its 60 or more Su-30MK2 and Su-30MK3 aircraft with the Kh-59MK anti-ship missile, a weapon with a range of 180 miles. Each aircraft can carry up to six of these missiles. In 2004 Beijing unexpectedly held its annual war games early near the Straits of Taiwan in which the Su-30MKK was prominently featured. China's acquisition of additional tactical aircraft designed for shipboard operation and sea attack reinforce the message that Beijing's long-held desire to create some form of aircraft carrier for its navy is alive and well.

Beyond that, Beijing is putting considerable effort into upgrading its domestic combat aircraft manufacturing capabilities. Shenyang Aircraft Corp. has continued to produce Su-27 SK fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components has reportedly surpassed 70 percent. The same company now prepares Su-30 MKK fighters for manufacturing. The Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters, which are said to roughly compare with the F-16. A new generation of the JH-7A Flying Leopard is being tested. This aircraft (not to be confused with the PLA's J-7, which is essentially a Chinese-produced MiG-21) is analogous to the Su-24 fighter-bomber and is designed to carry new over-the-horizon air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles and a variety of bombs.

Interestingly, one fighter project began with US support. In 1986, the PRC had signed a $550-million agreement with Grumman to modernize its fleet of J-7 fighters under the so-called "Super-7" upgrade before the program was canceled because of growing political tensions between the PRC and the US in the 1990s. The Super-7 program was eventually replaced by the FC-1 program. Principals are the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Company, Pakistan's Aviation Integrated Company, and Russia's Mikoyan Aero-Science Production Group. The FC-1 finally was shown to the public in 2002, six years behind schedule, and first flew as the JF-17 "Thunder" tactical jet in 2003. The JF-17 flew a successful third test at China's Wenjiang Airport in mid-April 2004, according to Beijing media sources. The jointly developed Chinese-Pakistani aircraft reportedly flew successfully during its brief planned hop (see "Chinese-Pakistani JF-17 Continues Flight Testing").


Beijing is putting considerable effort into upgrading its domestic combat-aircraft manufacturing capabilities. The JF-17 – built by a consortium of Chinese, Pakistani, and Russian companies – is superficially similar to the F-16. The aircraft, which is now in flight tests, reportedly can fly at speeds up to Mach 1.6 and will carry a 23mm GSh-23-2 twin-barrel cannon, up to six PL-7 and six PL-10 air-to-air missiles, anti-ship and anti-radiation missiles, laser-guided bombs, and a variety of other air-to-ground ordnance.

Superficially similar to the F-16, the JF-17 can fly at speeds up to Mach 1.6, and Beijing claims that it will carry a 23mm GSh-23-2 twin-barrel cannon, up to six PL-7 and six PL-10 air-to-air missiles, anti-ship and anti-radiation missiles, laser-guided bombs, and a variety of other air-to-ground ordnance. The next test flight is to analyze onboard electronics and weapons systems. Production of the JF-17 is officially set to begin by 2006, and the PRC is said to be targeting Mirage, F-16, and F-7 users as the most likely customers.

In a move that reinforced the opinion that China sees the US Navy's carriers as its primary potential opponents in any stare-down over Taiwan, Beijing recently appointed two top anti-aircraft-carrier warfare officers to head the People's Liberation Army General Staff Department. Lieutenant General Xu Qiliang and Vice Admiral Wu Shengli, deputy commanders of the Shenyang and Guangzhou Greater Military Regions respectively, were named deputy chiefs of staff as the US "Summer Pulse 04" aircraft carrier battle group surge exercise was being organized for the Pacific. These two appointments end a 25-year tradition of selecting chiefs of staff from the Army. China is reportedly still smarting over the results of the 1996 Taiwan "missile crisis," during which the US sent two carrier groups to the area – a force that China did not have the power to neutralize at that time. Summer Pulse 04's surge of seven carrier groups must have really rattled the Chinese high command.

Mind the Gap

The PRC's offensive and Taiwan's defensive strategies are all designed around the fundamental problem of how A intends to get across the moat and into B's fortress. Amphibious warfare has always been non-trivial, to say the least, and in the modern era of standoff precision-guided weapons and cluster munitions, it approaches the realm of impossibility. As always, the key is to for the attacker to suppress the defender's forces so that the former can get ashore and establish a beachhead. Easier said than done.

Any PLA amphibious force would run into a phalanx of anti-ship missiles, naval mines, etc., before reaching the shoreline, where the aforementioned cluster weapons would be waiting for it. Failure to achieve and exploit a beachhead would likely lead to independence for Taiwan, if not an end to Communist Party rule in China. The PRC seems to have tacitly acknowledged its military predicament by deploying steadily increasing the numbers of CSS-7 tactical ballistic missiles (TBMs) against Taiwan. The CSS-7 missile is solid-fueled and can be fired from a mobile launcher on short notice. Damage to Taiwan would be considerable before anything might be done about it. Furthermore, a rain of ballistic missiles might conceivably serve to force Taiwan's capitulation.

The build-up began in 2000, and by May 2001, the PRC had completed a base for approximately 100 CSS-7 (Dong Feng-11) missiles at Xianyou, just 135 miles from the Taiwan's shores. The truck-mounted missile carries an 800-lb. warhead more than 180 miles. The missile uses jam-proof inertial guidance, and current mobile launchers are believed to have GPS launch-reference positioning. There are now reportedly 300 CSS-7 missiles in place, with an eventual goal of 500 projected by 2007, plus another 300 smaller, less accurate CSS-6 TBMs. In September of last year, China also test-fired a new land-attack cruise missile designated the Dong Hai-10 (East China Sea-10) with a reported range of 900 miles.

As has been previously noted, Taiwan is bolstering its integrated air-defense system to include improved early-warning radar and ballistic-missile-intercept capabilities. However, the best way to prevent enemy missiles from reaching their targets is to destroy them on the ground. If the mainland's vast arsenal of TBMs could themselves be attacked, then the PRC's "bombardment" strategy would be diminished, and the specter of a cross-strait invasion would arise again. For this reason, Beijing is also investing in an integrated air-defense system to protect its mainland assets. Russia's Rosoboronoexport arms agency in August 2004 signed a $980-million contract with the PRC for delivery of the S-300PMU-2 Favorit air-defense system. This is the largest contract for delivery of Russian air-defense systems to the PRC in recent years (see "China Buys S-300PMU-2 Air-Defense System").

The Burning Question

The 2001 forcing-down of PR-32, a US Navy EP-3E electronic-intelligence aircraft from Fleet Air Reconnaissance Squadron One (VQ-1), raised alarms all over the world. However, after several weeks' worth of propaganda by the Chinese government, the crisis was defused when unofficial blame was placed upon the hot-dogging Chinese fighter pilot who failed to stay clear of the number-one propeller arc of the US plane. The $80-million PR-32 has since been reassembled and repaired and is back in service.

Is war likely? Some analysts think that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. China's media reportedly have been repeating that the PLA is preparing to gain a victory in this "internal military conflict in a high-tech environment."

Senior Chinese leaders in the Central Military Command have occasionally alluded to a coming war with Taiwan. According to one journal in 2000, PLA General Zhang Wannian, vice chairman of China's Central Military Command, told an audience that "during the period of [2001-2006], it is certain that war will break out in the Taiwan Strait." General Zhang predicted China would strike Taiwan first, launching a "decapitation strike."

Writer Jeff Head notes that without the ability to defeat US carrier groups, China has few options to counter US military support for Taiwan. To deal with expected counterstrikes from the US, Chinese war planners reportedly have intensively studied the recent US-Iraq War and concluded that China cannot compete with America's technological strength. While the US has not officially recognized Taiwan as a separate country, it has repeated its intention of defending Taiwan from an attack from the mainland. The goal of Chinese planners in a conflict to take Taiwan would be to subdue and secure the island nation quickly, before the US could muster an effective response. Taiwan recently acknowledged that it could defend itself against a Chinese attack for perhaps two weeks without the direct intervention of the US. Beijing has countered with an estimate of six days.

[Wolfala]

This does not suggest that China has abandoned the technological warfare approach. After the US-Iraq War in May 2003, China's President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao stated the necessity of "active support of national defense and modernization of the army," with emphasis on further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA while mobilizing China's entire scientific and technological potential for the PLA's needs. The chairman of China's Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, emphasized that that the PLA should transform itself into a "smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army." Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as reducing the PLA's active service personnel – primarily the ground forces – by 200,000; maximizing IT and other advanced technologies, including nanotechnologies, space technologies, and electromagnetic weapons; improving the education and qualitative training of PLA servicemen; and acquiring the most advanced weaponry.

China is hardly immune to the great forces now moving the world. China's communist government has held power in large part through the control of information. The advent of powerful, secondary communications networks such as the Internet, means the end of this control – a technology China both embraces for its own success and fears for the dangers it brings.
 
 
Articles from Journal of Electronic Defense and Edefenseonline

[Hangtime]

Damn.. lost 4 pitons and a carbiner on that wall of text.

Aside from the cut and paste order and duplication issues I didn't see anything there that indicates that China is doing anything other than asserting itself as the pre-dominate military force in THEIR sphere of influence.

Now, if I lived in Australia or New Zealand, I'd be *****ing up a blue streak about wot in hell is happening.. but unlike Finland, they have the Big W.

[Fishu]

Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Why do you expect anyone to respond to an argument on the sucess of communist economics based on you: "Just Ask Boroda."

You go on thinking that china can just stop doing business with the USA without incurring terrible damage to itself.

Boroda is the expert on telling you how communists creates jobs, so why not?
They'll do it in a way or another anyway, but Boroda has better details on the 'how' part.

Why couldn't China stop doing business with the USA?
Just a few years ago they didn't do it either, nor with any other non-commie country.
Their people won't be screaming a bloody murder if the government bans trade to/from the USA and the means to go around the trade embargo.
However in the USA people would be pissed when there would be a temporary shortage of some products, companies would loose a fortune in their chinese investments and there would be at least temporarily higher prices on products which were outsourced from China in a way or another.

However chinese could still trade with other asians and europe.
I don't know why any single country under trade embargo would have "disasterious" effects on China's economy.
Especially when just a few years ago they were only beginning to consider the trading.

Outsourcers would be hit far worse in lost investements, lost sales and increased prices.

They don't either really give a **** if few people are doing bad.
Most of the people in China are still living in poverty and without any of the simpliest luxury that we westerners are used to as a minimum stantard of living.
Only a minority lives in the "advanced" cities, where the pseudo capitalism is most seen and the benefits gathered into.
The majority wouldn't feel a thing.
The outsourcers would be crying loud.

[Meatwad]

is taiwan part of china, or is it just a little country all on its own? If china would enter taiwan, that would be invading a foreign country and declare war, wouldnt it?

[Gh0stFT]

Nukes? no way. What i'm afraid of is if China becomes a superpower
with a huge millitary and they start to spread around the globe building
bases...

...but maybe i'm still drunk from yesterdays party ;*)

[Meatwad]

I dont think china would spread like an overfed leech.

japan - who knows what they would do
russia  - look what happened during ww2, they push back and invade china

usa - bomb the crap outta china
aussies - i guess draft the kangaroos and arm them with boomerangs, dont know if aussies have much of an army anymore.