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Author Topic: Cause of death and lifetime odds  (Read 1073 times)

Offline MrRiplEy[H]

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2005, 11:53:57 AM »
Umm.. the odds for an asteroid impact can't be right. How many instances of people dying to one do you know?

Is any impact expected in near future?

How many people died in a tsunami recently? And we know another one can appear to any of the several large earthquakes per year.

So either they know something that the general public doesn't or the numbers are way off.
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Offline eskimo2

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2005, 12:01:15 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by MrRiplEy[H]
Umm.. the odds for an asteroid impact can't be right. How many instances of people dying to one do you know?

Is any impact expected in near future?

How many people died in a tsunami recently? And we know another one can appear to any of the several large earthquakes per year.

So either they know something that the general public doesn't or the numbers are way off.


A big one killed a few million trees in Russia a few decades ago; it probably took out a few lumberjacks too.

As far as tsunamis go, you have to weigh how many die each year on the average against how many don't die; most of the world survives.

eskimo
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Offline Simaril

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2005, 01:59:36 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Mathman
If I only live 75 years instead of 78 because I ate In-N-Out, oh well.  At least I ate some good food instead of some lamer protein shake from GNC that you will either poop out or piss out because your body only absorbs what it needs.

All hail the Double-Double!


Also need to consider lost function because of disease -- which IMHO is much more important an issue than length of life.

The issue with most lifestyle choices (like diet, cigarettes, exercise) isnt lost years of life but rather how messed up your last 10-15 years get to be. And the people with higher risk lifestyles are much more likely to be the ones woth multiple hospitalizations, multiple meds, and serious life limitations as they get to that last decade...
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Offline myelo

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2005, 03:29:34 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Simaril
Also need to consider lost function because of disease


That woudl be stroke ... the number one cause of disability.

Everybody on top of their blood pressure?
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Offline Sandman

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2005, 03:32:07 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by myelo
That woudl be stroke ... the number one cause of disability.

Everybody on top of their blood pressure?


110/79 :aok
« Last Edit: October 02, 2005, 04:06:49 PM by Sandman »
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Offline Simaril

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2005, 04:01:35 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by myelo
That woudl be stroke ... the number one cause of disability.

Everybody on top of their blood pressure?



Important to realize that ALL vascular disease -- whether stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or amputation -- is a variation on a theme.

Although heart attack is the #1 killer, all vascular disease has the same risk factor list (in rough order):

cigarettes
high blood pressure
high "bad" LDL cholesterol
diabetes
lifestyle
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Offline StSanta

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2005, 10:59:46 AM »
Life long odds are good, but to get anything really useable, you gotta factor in risk groups and demographic factors.

For instance:

The number one cause of death amongst skydivers aged 20-45 is skydiving. There's 1 fatality per 1000 skydivers annually.

The number one cause of death for BASE jumpers, same age group, is BASE jumping.

The number one cause of death amongst people who primarily tend their gardens, age 60-80, is probably not gardening.

So it's nice to know the general stats, but if you want to see an "immediate picture", ya gotta factor in who you are, what you are doing and so forth. Only then can you get something that relates directly to you and your particular circumstances.
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Offline deSelys

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2005, 11:05:10 AM »
Bah! I plan to live forever.

So far so good...
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Offline Hangtime

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2005, 11:08:41 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by StSanta
Life long odds are good, but to get anything really useable, you gotta factor in risk groups and demographic factors.

For instance:

The number one cause of death amongst skydivers aged 20-45 is skydiving. There's 1 fatality per 1000 skydivers annually.

The number one cause of death for BASE jumpers, same age group, is BASE jumping.

The number one cause of death amongst people who primarily tend their gardens, age 60-80, is probably not gardening.

So it's nice to know the general stats, but if you want to see an "immediate picture", ya gotta factor in who you are, what you are doing and so forth. Only then can you get something that relates directly to you and your particular circumstances.


Santa!

Yer alive!!

Good ta hear from yah, yah miserable beyatch!
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Offline Holden McGroin

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Re: Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2005, 02:33:16 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Ripsnort


Asteroid Impact*  1-in-200,000**
 
Tsunami*              1-in-500,000

...

SOURCES: National Center for Health Statistics, CDC; American Cancer Society; National Safety Council; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; World Health Organization; USGS; Clark Chapman, SwRI; David Morrison, NASA; Michael Paine, Planetary Society Australian Volunteers


Last year a hundred thousand or so died in a tsunami.  The last asteroid impact killing a human?  Google is still looking....

I wonder if any of the other stats are screwed up?
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Offline Samiam

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #25 on: October 04, 2005, 03:47:00 PM »
Mathman, help us out with what these odds mean.

Is the implication that 1 in every five deaths world-wide (or is it nationwide) is attributed to heart disease?

The numbes don't ring true if this is the interpretation: specifically, there certainly isn't one legal execution for every 58,000 deaths.
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Offline Curval

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #26 on: October 04, 2005, 03:56:27 PM »
What about "Natural Causes"...or "Old Age".

What are the odds for those?
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Offline BlueJ1

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Re: Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2005, 05:49:11 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Ripsnort
Falling Down
 1-in-246
 


Last time I fell down I didnt die, I dont think...

Quote
Originally posted by Ripsnort
Planetary Society Australian Volunteers

Volunteer to die ?
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Offline myelo

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #28 on: October 05, 2005, 04:58:05 AM »
Heart disease, stroke, etc. are considered "natural causes".

Hardly anybody dies of "old age". The natural lifespan of humans is about 120 years. Most people get some fatal disease before then.
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Offline Samiam

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Cause of death and lifetime odds
« Reply #29 on: October 05, 2005, 02:02:21 PM »
I still don't understand how these odds are computed.

I'm convinced that most people's odds of drowning are much, much higher than of being killed by a firearm. But not according to this.

I can also pretty much guarantee that I will not perish as the outcome of a legal execution.  Without researching actual statistics, I figure the number of people who die in the US in any given year is measured in the millions. Compared with three or four that are executed. Over a lifetime, I'd intuitively say that odds of being executed are in the 1/1,000,000 order of magnitude, not 1/50,000.
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