In USSR it was like US spys on us, sending spy planes (remember U2?), make quick runs in and out of our airspace so we have no time to catch, planning provocations... And we are defending. I hear same story from americans about how it was back at that time. So it was not "95% chance...". It easy could be "CIA trying to fool us sending all flashing big plane like it is civilian but we are not fools"...
A U-2 darting in and out of airspace at probably VERY high alt is alot different than a COMMERCIAL aircraft going very slow with its lights on at normal COMMERCIAL altitude with normal COMMERCIAL running lights on...is a bit differnet.
Besides..if were were going to spy..why in the hell use a 747 when we have the U-2 SR-71 and planes speciffically designed to do it..
And if they though that maby..by some chance..it could maby be possable...that maby..the at plane was some sort of COMMERCIAL jet flying at COMMERCIAL altitude WITH ITS RUNNING LIGHTS ON that is secretly a spy plane...thats pretty far fetched isnt it...some would say that such "evidence" wich is exactly what it isnt would warrent taking the risk of killing a bunch of innocent people... AND THEY DID IT TWICE.
given the amount of reason russia had to believe that was a spy plane for shooting it down is like.....
Walking down the street and seeing someone walking towards you..and shooting them in the face..because they COULD have been a criminal...of course russia did that to citizens anyway..so i guess maby to them that line of thinking does did make sense.
BTW im not bashing the CITIZENS of China or the USSR when i am ranting or whateve, im targeting the Elitest fruit loops that are responsable for this crazy toejam.
I had a friend on ICQ for 2 years named Peter Valosov (i think thats how he spelled it) who lived in Murmansk, he was a very nice and we always talked about political crap and it was always nice to have a CIVIL discussion with somebody who has an UNBIASED opinion, about crap we saw in the news and stuff...i havent heard from him since he got married and moved though
anywho the point is that given the OVERWHELMING probibility that they were about to kill a bunch of innocent people should have far outweighed any benifit they would see from shooting it down if so happened it was a spy plane.....and you would think they would have learned that the first time.