Author Topic: Currency - redux?  (Read 2728 times)

Offline lasersailor184

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Currency - redux?
« Reply #45 on: November 30, 2005, 10:16:50 PM »
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I explained at the begining why countries can let the US dollar fail. Countries that are sitting on tons of US dollars have already lost productivity because of it. Countries will just lose more if they continue having a trade surplus with the US, thier economies will improve if they stop.


No, that is absolutely wrong.
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Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #46 on: November 30, 2005, 10:16:53 PM »
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Originally posted by BigGun
China can just call it in???? How so?

The one that issues the Note, US Treasury, can call the note in, not the one holding the note. China owns Treasuries for which the get paid interest. They can't just call & say hey, we want all the principal paid to us now. Just one of many problems with lot of statements above, wish had the time to go into. Definately over simplistic point of view.


Okay, they can sell off thier US dollars while they still have book value.  Or wait for the T-Bills to mature then sell off the US dollars.


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How does investments play into your little scenario? What is need of foreigners to achieve returns on investments? How reliant is China on foriegn investment? For China to continue to grow its economy it needs huge amounts of foreign investments.


Investment is taking some actual wealth and exchanging it for stuff to increase productivity.  In order for China's economy to keep growing, it needs actual goods and resources, not piece of paper with dead Presidents on it.

Last year China imported about $34 billion dollars worth of stuff from the US.  Compared to the $194 billion it sent.  Now if the US dollar tanks, will China be able to $34 billion worth of stuff the following year?  You bet, not only that but they will be able to buy it for much much cheaper.


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Also not sure what referring to when including them as powerful? Military basis, maybe so. Economic basis, hardly. China is a minor country economically. What is there GDP again?


GDP is an erroneous way of measuring the economy of a country.  If a countries government went $1 gazillion in debt one year and spent that money, it would show that the GDP of that nation increased by $1 gazillion.


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Also to compare current economy to 1930s or other time periods is truely comparing apples to oranges. The way in which trade works is very very different than 70 years ago. Globalization is a major change which makes 1930s not comparable to now.


Sure it's comparable.  The laws of supply and demand hasn't changed since then, globalization or not.  


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Originally posted by Ripsnort
The American public controls their economy. We stop buying, they drop. No?


Read what I posted at the top.  I also state my "point" in the first paragraph of the first post up their.

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #47 on: November 30, 2005, 10:22:39 PM »
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Originally posted by 2bighorn
On the other side, they have some 80 billions trade surplus (total), while we have 150 billion deficit with China alone.
Our economies are very interdependant, so it kinda equals out.


It would only equal out if China had a hope of being able to recieve equivalent value in trade at some point in the future.  I don't see how that's possible.

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But it would hurt them same way it would hurt us.


Why would it hurt them?


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Originally posted by lasersailor184
No, that is absolutely wrong.


I merely restated my arguments of which you said...

"Most of what Thrawn has been saying is pretty much right."

...in a different way.  What's changed to make them now wrong?
« Last Edit: November 30, 2005, 10:31:44 PM by Thrawn »

Offline Stringer

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« Reply #48 on: November 30, 2005, 10:30:42 PM »
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
The American public controls their economy. We stop buying, they drop. No?


The American public does not have that kind of control on anything....especially itself.

The only way the American public will stop buying goods from China is if the American and European companies that build factories there or source their goods from there stop doing so because those companies have found a cheaper labor source elsewhere....like India or even smaller producers like Vietnam.

As a Global Supply Chain guy, I've seen first-hand the fear in other countries eyes when China was gaining entry to the WTO.  The only thing at that time that made them able to compete with China was the duties we were imposing on Chinese goods.  China's labor force was the meanest and cheapest around.  Now, there are some producing countries that are cheaper, but they don't have the infastructure or population to handle the volume that we have placed on the Chinese.

It used to be that the race was on to get into China to source goods from there.   Now the race is on to move into western China because the labor is cheaper there then near the northern (Shanghai) or southern (Shenzen) regions.

I don't remember the exact number that China is spending just on road building for 2005, but I believe it equals what we spent on our entire Interstate system over a period of many years.  They are serious about maintaining their lead producer status.

The American public is the fuel to alot of the world's economic growth, no question.  But we do it on borrowed money.  And there's no disputing that as well.  

As of now, China has a vested interest in keeping our currency afloat.  But no situation lasts forever and this one will change as well.  Maybe they find Europe a good consumer market, or maybe their own population becomes a great consumer market.  Then our importance to them will diminish.  We may hold alot of cards now, but nothing stays static, and we aren't a lock to keep those cards.

Offline Rolex

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« Reply #49 on: November 30, 2005, 11:19:14 PM »
Well said, Stringer. It's rare to see a reasonable person around here who actually knows something about a topic. Particularly this one.

Offline 2bighorn

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« Reply #50 on: November 30, 2005, 11:28:31 PM »
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Originally posted by Thrawn
It would only equal out if China had a hope of being able to recieve equivalent value in trade at some point in the future.  I don't see how that's possible.
Because they aren't limited to the USA market to buy goods. They can and they do spend $$ elsewhere.
Whilst their surplus with EU and USA is about 245 billion, their total trade surplus is only 80 billion. Somewhere they do indeed trade lots of money for the goods.

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Originally posted by Thrawn
Why would it hurt them?
Because almost 20% of their export goes to US. You can't just lose 1/5 of your market without getting hurt. Besides they sit on billions and billions of dollars. They have lot more to lose with $ devaluation then just an export market.

Big surplus or deficit. None is sustainable over long period of time and over certain breaking point.

If dollar drops, whole world will suffer (especially Canada ;)  ). It's in everyone's interest to keep it afloat, and in the future, gradually diversify into other currencies. The latest may push us into slight recession, but recession is the only thing that can cut our growing trade deficit and definately is much better than world wide depression.

Offline BigGun

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« Reply #51 on: December 01, 2005, 10:42:28 AM »
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Originally posted by 2bighorn
China's GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) is
7,334,254 mil $ (7,123,712 by WB) 2nd Place

PPP gives more accurate figures than that of current market exchange rates, especially because China is keeping their currency artificially low.

List of countries by GDP (PPP)

CIA gives GDP as PPP as well http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP_PPP.pdf


Whether or not PPP is more accurate is not accepted gospel. Just a different way of calculating GDP, and it uses a lot of assumptions (guesses) in its calculation. Nominal is the actual GDP at the current Market exchange rates.

Was interesting if you look at per capita GDP.

Nominal China ranks 110 at 1,272 (below Angola but above Indonesia) ....US ranks 7th at 39,935

PPP China ranks 97th at 5,642 (barely above Venezula and Peru)....US ranks 3rd at 39,496

From this, China is a emerging/developing market economically and is in no way a superpower economically. For the most part of the country, China is very poor on an economic basis.

Using the much more generous PPP percapita GDP, Assuming growth for US is constant 3%, and China has longterm constant growth of 8% (which is ridiculously generous, no way economy can consistently grow at that rate) it will take over 40 years for China to approach US level of wealth.

Again, using the much more generous PPP per capita GDP, Assuming growth for US is constant 3%, and China has longterm constant growth of 5% (which is still ridiculously generous to assume China can consistently grow at that rate) it will take over 100 years for China to approach US level of wealth.

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #52 on: January 02, 2006, 10:34:26 AM »
Someone linked this at AGW.  I imagine my reasons for posting it hear are self-evident, what with the recently noises about Iran and all.  



"December 29, 2005

Doomsday for the Greenback    
by Mike Whitney
 

http://www.opednews.com

A preemptive attack on Iran would “provoke other industrial nations to strategically abandon the dollar en masse”… “in an effort to thwart the neoconservatives from pursuing their desperate strategy of dominating the world’s hydrocarbon energy supply.” William R. Clark “Petrodollar Warfare; Dollars, Euros and the upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse”,


The Federal Reserve is the financial headquarters for the cartel of multinational banking establishments. The confederation of banks in the Fed underwrites the exploitative activities of the world’s main industries and sets rates in a manner that best serves their objectives. This is how the bankers perpetuate the system of economic hegemony and apply the shackle of debt and dependence to the planet’s most destitute countries. The Federal Reserve is every bit as critical to the maintenance of the empire as its political counterparts in Washington or its blood-brothers in the US Military. It is the largest of the empire’s three gears; economic, political and military, which mobilize the mighty wheel of state terror.

If we look carefully at the Iraq war, the main financial institutions stood squarely behind the hostilities and did their best to create a hospitable economic environment for aggression. The Federal Reserve dropped the prime rate to a paltry 1.5% just 6 months before the Iraq invasion to keep the American economy purring along while Bush dragged the nation to war. The bloody footprints for Iraq lead straight to the oak-panel doors of America’s primary lenders even before they trail off to the bastions of America’s energy giants.

There’s a reason for this. The main impetus for the war was not petroleum, but greenbacks and the future of a currency that is underwritten by $8 trillion of debt. The only way to safeguard its dominance is to back up the listing dollar with boatloads of oil. And, that is exactly the plan.

The Capital of Empire

America’s capital is not in Washington DC. In fact, it is not geographic location at all. It is the greenback, the epicenter of the global rule. The dollar is the cornerstone upon which the mighty pillars of empire rest.

At the same time, the greenback is the greatest swindle in human history; a worthless scrap of paper buried beneath a mountain of debt. It is only through the skillful mix of politics, diplomacy, and brute force that the grand deception is maintained. As America’s fortunes grow more tenuous, the probability of attacks on the dollar will increase exponentially. Even now, nations are conspiring to knock the dollar from its towering summit and introduce a more equitable system.

At present, the greenback serves as the world’s reserve currency, the main medium of exchange. This allows the US to pile up enormous debt while avoiding the pitfalls of skyrocketing interest rates or hyper-inflation. The $2 billion of borrowed wealth that props up the faltering empire every day comes primarily from the exporting powerhouses Japan and China. This means that America’s profligate spending is financed by the labor of some of the most poorly paid workers in the world.

Ironically, sweatshop workers in Kwantung Province are now bankrolling the criminal occupation of Iraq by facilitating America’s massive trade deficits.

Every greenback carries with it the accumulated weight of two centuries of war, slavery, and ethnic cleansing of Native Americans. It is the flaccid script that has fueled 50 years of covert activities, coup d’etats, and third-world death-squads. It churns through the arteries of the empire to the furthest most extremities where torture and abuse are carried out beneath the tri-colored standard. It is strewn across the empire like the myriad gulags that now speckle the planet. It is the heart of the beast; a venom-pumping organ with arteries strung across the globe like the concertina-wire that surrounds Falluja, Samarra and Tal Afar.

Eventually the stately images of Lincoln and Washington will be stripped from the currency; replaced with the looming specter of Guantanamo’s gun towers or the iconic figure of an Abu Ghraib prisoner, hooded in sackcloth, arms outstretched in Christ-like submission, wires draped from his hands and feet. These are the freshly minted symbols of the new realm, the republic of terror.

As the empire extends its withering grip to the world’s last resource-centers, the dollar is coming under increasing scrutiny. It is the dollar that facilitates the perennial war and the vast expansion of military force; just as it is the dollar that binds together the constellation of American colonies that function exclusively in the interests of their Washington overlords. The asymmetrical warfare that is approaching will put the greenback squarely in the crosshairs; the weal-link in America’s coat of mail.

Hugo Chavez knows this, as did Saddam; that’s why he switched to the euro 6 months before “Shock and Awe”. Now, Putin is trading oil in euros and Iran will open an oil bourse in petro-euros in March. For Iran, its actions are tantamount to a declaration of war. Already, America’s proxy Israel has threatened to attack in March. Is it merely coincidence that Iran’s oil bourse is scheduled to open at the same time?

No, it’s not.

The empire requires a steady diet of petrodollars to maintain its gluttonous appetite for debt. If the oil-producing nations switch to euros, the dollar would freefall like a wingless gull and America would be trapped in a bottomless vat of red ink.

America’s prodigious dept has made the war for the world’s remaining resources an existential struggle. A retreat from Iraq is no longer possible. If America’s debt is not propped up with oil reserves the anemic dollar will crumble with the economy following right behind.

In William R. Clark’s “Petrodollar Warfare; Dollars, Euros and the upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse”, Clark outlines the problems the dollar faces if Iran proceeds with its plan to use a euro-based oil trading exchange. The new Iranian bourse would compete head-on with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and London’s International Petroleum Exchange IPE) giving international buyers an option of “buying a barrel of oil $60 on the NYMEX or IPE or 45 to 50 euros via the Iranian bourse.” Clark calls this the Federal Reserves “biggest nightmare” as it would precipitate a face-off between the dollar and the euro and would fundamentally change the dynamics in the world’s largest market.

“In essence, the US will no longer be able to effortlessly expand credit via US Treasury Bills, and the dollars demand-liquidity will quickly fall.” This will “challenge the hegemony currently enjoyed by the financial centers in both London and New York.”

In other words; doomsday for the greenback.

Clark also notes that “both Russia and China significantly increased their central bank holdings of the euro, which appears to be a coordinated move to facilitate the anticipated ascendance of the euro as a second world reserve currency.” This would effectively end the petrodollars hegemony as the “monopoly oil currency”.

The world is preparing for a seismic shift in the global power-structure, but Washington believes it can forestall that change through military force.

The prospect of a competing Iranian oil-exchange greatly increases the likelihood of a unilateral attack by the US. Clark anticipates that this may “provoke other industrial nations to strategically abandon the dollar en masse”…”While central bankers throughout the world community would be extremely reluctant to ‘dump the dollar’”… “They would likely move in tandem on the currency exchange markets in an effort to thwart the neoconservatives from pursuing their desperate strategy of dominating the world’s hydrocarbon energy supply.”

A strategy to “dump the dollar”?

Some variant of Clark’s scenario will undoubtedly transpire pending an American attack on Iran. The world will not confront the empire militarily, but neither will they stand idly by while vital oil resources are put at risk. A coordinated assault on the dollar is an extreme, but probable consequence.

The vulnerability of the dollar, skittering atop an ocean of red ink, has become the Achilles heel of the empire. Washington may believe that its weakness is well-concealed behind a wall of high-tech weaponry and media propaganda, but potential adversaries will certainly know where to strike if they are forced to respond.

America’s future has grown increasingly uncertain due to the reckless militarism of its leaders. An attack on Iran is sure to incite an asymmetrical war that will target the greenback; dislodging it from its lofty perch.

When the dollar collapses, the baling-wire of economic coercion that keeps the empire sewn together will quickly unravel."
« Last Edit: January 02, 2006, 10:38:23 AM by Thrawn »

Offline john9001

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« Reply #53 on: January 02, 2006, 10:43:38 AM »
when the dollar collapses chevy and ford will be selling $500 cars to the rest of the world and jobs will be outsourced to the "cheap" labor the the USA.

Offline NUKE

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« Reply #54 on: January 02, 2006, 10:45:05 AM »
I love conspiracy theory believers. They never give up.

Offline Shamus

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« Reply #55 on: January 02, 2006, 11:22:15 AM »
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Originally posted by john9001
when the dollar collapses chevy and ford will be selling $500 cars to the rest of the world and jobs will be outsourced to the "cheap" labor the the USA.


No they will be 500 Euros or $500,000.00, but just think about it, all of us in the US will be multi-millonaires :)

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Offline lazs2

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« Reply #56 on: January 02, 2006, 12:02:13 PM »
So... we are doomed?   Our currency will be as worthless as canadian money?

lazs

Offline Maverick

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« Reply #57 on: January 02, 2006, 12:14:04 PM »
Yep Laz, you better stock up on chickens as they will be the next currency in the US due to their ability to be transported easily and the eggs they lay.  The sky is falling the sky is falling....... run and hide.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2006, 12:17:04 PM by Maverick »
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Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #58 on: January 02, 2006, 02:29:54 PM »
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Originally posted by john9001
when the dollar collapses chevy and ford will be selling $500 cars to the rest of the world and jobs will be outsourced to the "cheap" labor the the USA.



Yep, in the long term the market will sort itself out, assuming the government doesn't try and "fix" it.  It's getting through, or even finding the opportunities during the economic crisis that's the key.  I wouldn't want to live in a city when it happens though.

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #59 on: January 03, 2006, 08:41:45 AM »
Well... It is hard for me to know what to be the most frieghtened of...  The crashing of the greenback and turning into a canada like third world country or... the impending global warming or...  

bird flu!

I don't know how anyone hopes to get through life alive!

lazs