Fuel and Air mixtures have an LEL (lower explosion limit) and UEL (upper explosion limit) - If the mix of fuel vapor and oxygen in the air are within the correct percentages, then even a small spark can cause an explosion.
Without looking up exact figures, fuel will burn over quite a wide range of mixtures. A full tank has a low percentage of O2, so a fire is more probable, a near empty tank has a higher percentage of O2, so an explosion is more probable.
One must also take into consideration the altitude. The higher up, the less O2, so the fuel / air mix will be different in a fuel tank at sea level verses at 20,000 feet.
Anyway - AFAIK, AH already simulates the "self sealing" tanks that some planes have. It's just that once you finally see a fuel leak or fire, there has been enough damage to prevent the self-sealing tank from sealing up again. - In other words, if a zero takes a single .50 in the wing tank, it should be leaking. A P-51D, getting a single .50 in the wing tank will be self-sealed and have no problem.