Guns are an easy scapegoat for social problems that require too much change and too much short term pain to really address.
1. The war on drugs is currently a closed topic. Some support the war on drugs some don't, but ther is no real discussion on "should this be the solution?" because there is a huge prison, law enforcemnt multi-billion industrial complex that makes it taboo to even discuss. So, the whole gangland thing isn't going to go away.
2. There are self sustaining segregated poverty pits that are not going away -- NIMBY and the fact that useless inner city "community leaders" will lose their power base prevent anything approaching a decentralization of the problem.
3. It's not popular to hold people responsible for their actions, by and large, among the special political interests and voting blocks in the high crime areas.
So, there's no really immediate solution to the root causes of crime. The way things have shaked out, urban politicians declare a "war on guns" to look like they are doing something. It's common for these politicians to be Democrats, but Bloomberg and Giuliani are both ardent anti gunners and Republican mayors. In rural areas, it's common for Democrats to support the 2nd. Bush currently "supports" the second but he is not active about it outside of letting things lapse and has stated he would sign an Assault Weapons ban if one were brought to his desk. IMO, I see his support more along the lines of "hunting sports" if push came to shove. Semi automatic "assault rifles" are a common issue, because:
1. Only a small percentage op people -- a niche among gun owners -- have these weapons. The media in urban areas is only familiar with firearms from TV, as is most of the voting population regardless of their political background. They either don't care, or have some negative connotation with firearms in general in many cases.
"Assault Weapons" are easy to vilify whether they live up to that rep or not. It's usual to lump in .50 rifles and high capacity magazines in the same package. It's also easy for the country club trap shooter crowd and the "...shot my deer, time to put the Remchester away until next year" crowd to not show their fellow gun owners any real support (... "they will never take my guns-- just give them what they want now and maybe they will go away).
2. It's not uncommon to have these semi automatic rifles weapons presented as machine guns as Chicago's "Top Political Hack Cop" stated in the local media: "You can empty the magazine in one or two pulls of the trigger...." Nobody covering the story knew enough to call him on this, or just didn't care." So, people think they are banning machine guns.
3. There have been rare, highly media covered events involving these weapons. They generally play a minute role in crime, and even when they are involved it's not uncommon for the media to ignore the 12 gauge shotgun that created most of the fatalities and concentrate on the "evil black rifle."
While currently a full ban on shotguns, bolt action rifles and many pistols is unlikely, there is a constant effort in these areas to go after the easy meat and incrementally tighten the screws. The same can be said nationally if it is useful, as it was for the Clinton Administration in the mid 1990s.
In general, there are only a few very activist anti- 2nd Amendment states and 2nd Amendment federal politicians. But, there are plenty that will cast a vote when the time comes for various "sensible gun laws" (drafted by the reasonable folks over at the Brady Campaign) including assault weapon bans and various purchase/gunshow/registration initiatives. And, in some states it is a very aggressive assault. IL, Calif., NJ, NY, Mass. (ironically the home of the "Minutemen") are the prime examples.
Daley, for example, with his "tobacco"style suit against gun manufacturers was essentially trying to financially ban firearms in the US. He works much harder at his State/county/City efforts where my rights could be radically different from my fellow Americans living 40 miles away. The more recent IL proposals (that one piece of "stalled regulation" you downplayed Nash) is only the most recent of what is a yearly legislative event at either the county or state level. The more recent efforts generally do not include grandfather clauses, so it's very much a 4th Amendment issue for me as well as a 2nd Amendment issue. Move out of state or deactivate/destroy in 30 or 60 days or whatever. So yeah, its a big real issue for me.
Charon
