Author Topic: NOAA's Problems Predicting Hurricane Season (Read 355 times)

Shuckins · « **on:** July 31, 2006, 10:53:26 PM »

2005 was a record year for hurricanes and tropical storms. Among the records set were:

A record number of named storms - 26

A record number of hurricanes - 13

A record number of category 3 or greater hurricanes - 5

The lowest pressure ever measured in a hurricane - 882 mbs. - Hurricane Wilma.

Climatologists and proponents of global warming fully expected that trend to continue. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, along with leading climate scientists at the University of Colorado, predicted that the 2006 storm season would be well above average, and would see the production of:

17 named storms

9 hurricanes - 5 of category 3 or higher.

_______________________

So far this season, it seems that it is a bit harder to predict storms than they thought.

At last count, only 3 storms have been large enough to be called tropical storms and be awarded names.

There have been no hurricanes as of yet. None, zilch, nada.

At this rate, this may be the quietest storm season on record.

I wonder what's going on out there in the Atlantic?

AquaShrimp · « **Reply #1 on:** August 01, 2006, 03:18:15 AM »

Hurricanes are a natural heat distribution system. Heat builds up in Africa, it forms into a hurricane, and heads for Florida.

So, in simplest terms, less heat- less hurricanes.

Nilsen · « **Reply #2 on:** August 01, 2006, 03:31:24 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by AquaShrimp
Hurricanes are a natural heat distribution system. Heat builds up in Africa, it forms into a hurricane, and heads for Florida.

So, in simplest terms, less heat- less hurricanes.

We had some good educational threads here last year after catrina on this topic. I im not mistaken the temperature in the gulf of mexico also plays a big part in how these things build up before they hit shore.

Im sure we can dig up some of the old threads and links on the topic.

I hope this is a better season than the last, even if I may loose money on it.. Money is far from everything.

When does the hurrican season officialy start again?

Debonair · « **Reply #3 on:** August 01, 2006, 03:48:12 AM »

money is right next door to everything....i cant predict hurricanes (actually thats not 100% accurate: Mk.IIc will pwn Mk.I & Mk.IId) but i can tell yall that the Washington Redskins will win the next Superbowl

JB88 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 01, 2006, 03:53:34 AM »

it has already started.

it lasts until november.

it's still early in the season, so we (down here) arent counting ourselves lucky just yet.

hurricanes suck.

Nilsen · « **Reply #5 on:** August 01, 2006, 03:56:38 AM »

Have all the dykes been repaired down in New Orleans?

Correct me if im wrong, but isnt some of the refining capacity still down since yesteryear?

Debonair · « **Reply #6 on:** August 01, 2006, 04:37:02 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Nilsen
Have all the dykes been repaired down in New Orleans?...

zOMG i have a stack of $1 dollar bills that says "i hope not"

Shuckins · « **Reply #7 on:** August 01, 2006, 05:40:01 PM »

Down South we call them "levees."

And I doubt seriously that they are fully repaired.

lasersailor184 · « **Reply #8 on:** August 01, 2006, 05:43:15 PM »

What causes the hurricanes is the cold waters of the atlantic meeting up with the extremely hot air off of the deserts of africa.

It's just that warm waters give the hurricanes a boost. Ironically, the entire east coast of the US has the gulf stream and gulf of mexico.

BigGun · « **Reply #9 on:** August 01, 2006, 06:11:21 PM »

I think I heard the first part of August is typically the busiest part of the hurricane season.

Debonair · « **Reply #10 on:** August 01, 2006, 07:23:27 PM »

i heard that if you sneeze fart & hiccup all at the same time, you die

Debonair · « **Reply #11 on:** August 02, 2006, 01:24:16 AM »

rofl they named a tropical storm "fabio"
lolololol, i hope i pwns key west lmao!!!!1111oneoneoneone:rofl

DiabloTX · « **Reply #12 on:** August 02, 2006, 01:29:59 AM »

I predict that Carolina will succesfully defend it's Stanley Cup.

Nilsen · « **Reply #13 on:** August 02, 2006, 03:02:34 AM »

There is one brewing off Antigua right now. His name is Chris and he may get real angry.

Oil prices bounced to 76 $

DiabloTX · « **Reply #14 on:** August 02, 2006, 03:04:27 AM »

NO PRECIPITATION FOR OIL!!!!