The Cease Fire (analysis from Stratfor)

[PonyDriver]

Israel are victorious,

I respectfully disagree.  By virtue of merely surviving, I feel Hebollah won a decisive and dangerous victory.  They have to be encouraged by Israel's seeming reluctance to asborb many casualties...the kind of casualties it would take to route out the Hezis. The Hezis won, IMHO from both a tactical and PR standpoint.
 They won the actual battle by surviving and they certainly won the PR war.  Foolish people around the world were quick to ignore their sense of right and wrong(if they had one in the first place) and somehow equate the Hezi's and IDF. I refer to all the insane/virtueless people who spouted that Israel was overreacting.  I feel that as soon as this began happening that it was the beginning of a PR victory for the Hezi's.
This is why I call the Hezi victory dangerous.  It's dangerous in that there are more than enough people in the world who seem to think there is a place in the world for Hezbollah.  Just look at the posters on this board who claimed Israel went too far.  They called for negotiations and restraint on the behalf of Israel but when asked, and you had to really hammer them with the question or they simply ignored it,  they didn't have any idea how to deal with Hezbollah, all they cared about was that civilians were dying.  Most of them refused to admit that the Hezi's were even terrorists and needed to be eliminated.  There are enough of these kind of amoral apologists in the world to  pressure the would be virtuous( as far as warring on terror) nations from following through decisively. Thus I feel it was a huge PR victory for Islamic fascists.

hezbollah now have to fire their rockets through 15000 UN Peacekeepers

I hope you are right but I don't think the UN peacekeepers will suddenly become an effective force. I think they will be ineffective at best, a shield for the Hezi's(whether a willing shield or not) for the Hezi's to hide behind as they rain rockets on Israel at worst.   I suspect the latter as UN sloth and inaction will allow the Hezi's to act w/ near impunity in the UN peacekeeping zone.  This of course will begin after the Hezi's, now protected by the UN from Israeli attack, rearm from shipments out if Iran and Syria.

[bj229r]

A real army doesn't fight its wars from behind the skirts of women and children. Put them in ANY sort of stand-up fight and Hezbollah is history

[PonyDriver]

A real army doesn't fight its wars from behind the skirts of women and children. Put them in ANY sort of stand-up fight and Hezbollah is history

I don't mean to sound rude but.....it's never going to happen so what does this have to do with anything?

[lukster]

I didn't read all of it but I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion. That being that because Israel didn't defeat Hezbollah utterly Arabs would increase their attacks. He cited many instances in which Israel did render their enemy impotent and yet they regroup and come back for more, time after time. Little doubt they will continue to do the same.

[LePaul]

End point being...

1)  Israel did not meet its military objectives

2)  Its soldiers are still in the hands of terrorists

3)  This truce is merely a respit.  Round II will resume anytime.

4)  The UN will only scold Israel, it will not do so in regards to Lebanon or Hezbollah.  The UN is a very very one-sided negotiator

5)  As far as military operations went, this was a cluster fk from the get go.  

Looks like Israel needs a regime change

[Captain Virgil Hilts]

Originally posted by Vulcan
I think that analysis is kinda stupid actually.

Israel are victorious, hezbollah now have to fire their rockets through 15000 UN Peacekeepers and while the short term risk for israel has been alienating the rest of the world, hezbollah is now placed in that position. Should there be repeats of the marine barracks bombings I think the world will throw in the towel on lebanon and let the israeli's go for broke.

IMHO israel played a perfect game, set, and match.

No, Iran and Syria will resupply Hezbollah during yet another "ceasefire", under yet another UN resolution, while the helpless UN looks on and wonders speechlessly. Then Hezbollah will fire the rockets from BEHIND the UN peace keepers, and when Israel retaliates and takes them out, Israel will be blamed for the hog tied helpless UN peacekeepers that end up as smoking holes in the ground, as well as countless civilians. The same people that pissed and moaned about Israel THIS time, will piss and moan about Israel NEXT time, just like they always have and they always will.

A wise man once said "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result." It isn't insanity though, it is stupidity and arrogance.

[Vulcan]

Originally posted by LePaul
End point being...

1)  Israel did not meet its military objectives

2)  Its soldiers are still in the hands of terrorists

3)  This truce is merely a respit.  Round II will resume anytime.

4)  The UN will only scold Israel, it will not do so in regards to Lebanon or Hezbollah.  The UN is a very very one-sided negotiator

5)  As far as military operations went, this was a cluster fk from the get go.  

Looks like Israel needs a regime change

Bollocks. You don't know for sure what israel's objectives were.

My humble uninformed view is this:
Israel at some stage identified a weapons buildup in southern lebanon, including upgrades to more complex weaponary. Sooner or later those weapons were going to be used. Israel have never shied from a pre-emptive attack. The kidnapped soldiers were a good excuse (and I'm not saying it was a bad reason to go postal either).

So what does Israel hope to acheive? Well, you can't really kill terrorist organisations. But you can strip them of their assetts. Hezbollah has 3 groups of assets, first its own people, second its weapons, and third the south lebanonese civilians who it hides behind.

So, if Israel hits southern lebanon hard enough, turns it into a no mans land, pushes the civilians out, then it denies hezbollah one of its primary assets. IMHO Israel didn't plan to stay in Sth Lebanon, they just wanted a moonscape to make hezbollahs life miserable and discourage civilians from living there, thus removing hezbollahs 'cover'.

The UN Response to israeli actions was predictable. So israel have dropped a massive problem on hezbollah's lap. 15000 UN Peacekeepers. Historically hezbollah have not got on well with peacekeepers, and while israel may have lost the short term PR war I think you'll see things swing against hezbollah in the coming years as they revert to their old habits.

Either way, I see it as a medium term israeli victory. The outcome is either hezbollah is neutered on the northern border (unlikey) or hezbollah goes to war with the UN (most likely), or theres a remote possibility that the UN pulls out (as in somalia) and lets israel and lebanon duke it out. If it does get to option 3 then hezbollah have probably lost the PR war already.

Iran also risks getting a wet slap on the hand from the UN should iranian weaponary start being used against UN peacekeepers in lebanon.

So... who says israel lost?

[Maverick]

Is it going to be 15,000 armed UN peacekeepers or will it be 15,000 UN hostages and human shields?

[PonyDriver]

So... who says israel lost?

I did. see my above post

[Bluefish]

Well, Vulcan, let's examine the equation:

1.  What did Israel lose?  You did not refute Stratfor's point that Israel lost the legacy of 48 years of unquestioned victory (in every previous conventional military action, at the conclusion the enemy was incapable of  continuing the contest).

2.  What did Israel gain?  By your calculations it has:
a. Deprived Hezbollah of its weapons.  Iran, however, can buy LOTS more.
b.  Turned S. Lebanon into a "moonscape" which the population vacates and Hezbolla's life is miserable because it's cover is removed.  This might be valuable IF Hezbolla were waging a true guerilla insurgency a la Algeria or Vietnam (although US moonscape-creation was not notably successful as a counter-insurgency tactic in Vietnam).  In any event, you did not refute Stratfor's point that this is not truly an insurgency.
c.  Given Hezbollah the "massive problem" of 15,000 UN peacekeepers, whom Hezbollah will likely either fight or force to withdraw, thereby losing the "PR war".  Hmmmm, UN peacekeepers, however numerous, seldom seem to be much of a problem for anyone ready, willing and able to kill them.  It also seems unlikely that the PR war that Hezbollah and its Iranian masters are most interested in (think the Al Jazeera audience) would be anything but impressed if Hezbollah ran the UN's bellybutton clean out of Lebanon, just like they did with the US and French in the early '80s and the Israelis in 2000.

Upon due reflection, if I were the Israelis I wouldn't trade their former legacy of invincibility for everything they "gained" plus the town hall clock.

[Vulcan]

1) lost what? A war? The only people touting an israeli loss at those who delight in such trophies, real or not.

2a) Lebanon might think twice about what they let the iranians move into lebanon, especially now israel has demonstarted a more we don't give a *** about what we hit attitude. Plus any iranian weaponery or troops will be sitting next to UN peacekeepers, iran might want to think twice about that and its implications should hostilities between the UN and hezbollah include the IRG.

2b) You miss the point. Lebanese civilians are now adversed to living in the twenty miles north of the israeli border. As such two lifeforms will occupy this area, hezbollah and UN peacekeepers. Makes it easy to pick hezbollah out. Hezbollah have relied heavily on that civlian population as a human shield of sorts. Its nearly gone now.

2c) What PR war on Al Jazeera. Theres nothing israel could do short of nuking itself to please that audience. I'm talking the broader world stage.

Israel is setting a scenario in lebanon that will be to its advantage, its has dragged the rest of the world in kicking and screaming. Now hezbollah and iran are not just fighting israel, but the whole world. If I was an israeli politician i'd be happy with that


edit: just learned the lebanonese army will have 15000 troops in with the 15000 UN Peace keepers. 30,000 troops for hezbollah to play with... oh my

[PonyDriver]

Now hezbollah and iran are not just fighting israel, but the whole world

You live on a different world than me, if this is the case on your world.

just learned the lebanonese army will have 15000 troops in with the 15000 UN Peace keepers. 30,000 troops for hezbollah to play with... oh my

Once again you seem to think the UN peacekeepers are a copmpetent and trustworthy force.... you seem to be assuming this about the lebanese as well... who had indicated the would fight on the side of Hezbollah. Your conclusions are....... unfathomable to me.


You seem to think that simply because I think the Hezi's won that:

The only people touting an israeli loss at those who delight in such trophies, real or not.

This is just plain .... incorrect.  I wanted to see Hezbollah annihilated.  From my POV you are wrong on several counts.. time will tell... and it won't take but a few months.

[PonyDriver]

Lebanese civilians are now adversed[sic] to living in the twenty miles north of the israeli border.

Just  how do you know this, exactly?

[Rolex]

The IDF also embedded its forces among arab civilians in northern Israel, using them as shields. Both sides are complicit and neither are saints in this regard.

Syria has not supplied arms or cash to Hezbollah since 2000. It does offer advice, areas for training and a supply route for Iranian arms. Of course, Syria is more interested in its own agenda for Lebanon than in the agenda of Lebanese people, including Hezbollah, but let's be precise about the language used to define their role.

Hezbollah will never be annihilated without annihilating over a million supporters in Lebanon and tens of millions of regional supporters who view it's role differently than Israel does. Not a likely or plausible strategy either.

So, what does that leave? It leaves what it has always left - negotiation followed by periods of relative calm, followed by renewed fighting, followed by negotiation, followed by...

I still fail to understand why this is so emotionally important to people in Texas, or California, or Florida, or New Zealand. Hezbollah has no interest in you, their interests lie with Lebanon. There are dozens of regional conflicts in Africa and Asia that kill many more people. Is it because they are Arabs and Arab Islamics are the "fear de jour?"

[PonyDriver]

The IDF also embedded its forces among arab civilians in northern Israel, using them as shields.

Really?  source??