Not gonna work

[lukster]

Does anyone else think it's a bad idea for the Lebanese army to become entwined with Hezbollah? If Hezbollah is not disarmed what happens the next time they decide to incite fighting? How will Israel distinguish between Hezbollah and Lebanese regulars? I'm confident that Hezbollah would like nothing better than a full scale war between Lebanon and Israel. Looks like they may get it.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,208837,00.html

[Masherbrum]

Originally posted by lukster
Does anyone else think it's a bad idea for the Lebanese army to become entwined with Hezbollah?

Ya think?!!   This is blatantly obvious.

[detch01]

I think it's a bad idea but there isn't much alternative. . The Lebonnese army is still rife with religious splits between christians and islamists, and almost certainly been infiltrated by hezbollah. There's (at best) very little chance that the Lebonnese government can actually exercise control in the area. By the time the UN gets boots on the ground it will be too late to be effective and if the UN follows its SOP's the UN force will be ill-equipped, badly coordinated, and have a mandate, structure and ROE that aren't consistant with the situation. Round 2 is very nearly inevitable IMO.


asw

[Edbert1]

I think they were already intertwined. I mean how do thousands of men in a "militia" move thousands of missiles and rockets around within a tiny country like that without there being some degree of interraction? In fact I'm willing to bet that Hez-ebola is a better fighting force than the Lebanese army and that the army, if not directly complicit, is actually afraid of Hez-ebola themselves.

[JB88]

Originally posted by detch01
I think it's a bad idea but there isn't much alternative. . The Lebonnese army is still rife with religious splits between christians and islamists, and almost certainly been infiltrated by hezbollah. There's (at best) very little chance that the Lebonnese government can actually exercise control in the area. By the time the UN gets boots on the ground it will be too late to be effective and if the UN follows its SOP's the UN force will be ill-equipped, badly coordinated, and have a mandate, structure and ROE that aren't consistant with the situation. Round 2 is very nearly inevitable IMO.


asw

it is splits between muslims that has caused the greatest degree of strife.  sunni's v. shee-ites.  (had to spell it that way...it *** the correct spelling lol) it all stems from the mandate by the league of nations which gave control of the government to one sect (can't remember which anymore) that had the greater population.  when the population density switched civil war became inevitable.  it is still a major part of the problem with syria interceding in lebanons affairs pretty consistantly since then.

add isreal and voila.  instant blood fued, hatfield and mccoy style in a country which was once the jewel of the mediterrainian.

if i recall correctly the druze muslims and the christians tend to be small fringe elements that serve only to create more trouble without actually being the major cause.


anywho.  

we still have the west to thank for this craptasticness, as we are the one whose great grandparents decided that it was up to them to draw a bunch of meaninless lines on foreign soil and decided to instill a ridiculously complex and disbalanced system of government on a people who had no real familiarity with western traditions and idiocies and whose destinies should have been left well enough alone.


just my .o2 there on the end.  but i think the former is at least close enough to accurate.  

88

[detch01]

Originally posted by Edbert1
In fact I'm willing to bet that Hez-ebola is a better fighting force than the Lebanese army and that the army, if not directly complicit, is actually afraid of Hez-ebola themselves.

I'm willing to bet you're right about the fighting ability of the Lebonnese army and its fear of the hezbo's. And while parts of the army almost certainly were/are complicit with the hezbo's, I'll bet parts of the army aren't.  I have a hard time thinking of the Lebonnese army as a national organization, I think of it more as a conglomeration of civil-war falanges all wearing the same suit for convenience sake.




asw

[Yeager]

the Lebanese people have made their support for hizbullies perfectly clear.  Next time there is a fight chances are good Beruit is going down and with that, Syria and Iran will attack Israel and Israel will destroy them or be destroyed, drawing the United States in and then Russia and China will fall behind the arab nations and..........

[lukster]

I'm thinking that both Syria and Iran will see Israel fighting the Lebanese army as a legitimate excuse to intercede. They need justification to avoid denouncement and involvement by the rest of the world.

[detch01]

Originally posted by JB88
it is splits between muslims that has caused the greatest degree of strife.  sunni's v. shee-ites.  (had to spell it that way...it *** the correct spelling lol) it all stems from the mandate by the league of nations which gave control of the government to one sect (can't remember which anymore) that had the greater population.  when the population density switched civil war became inevitable.  it is still a major part of the problem with syria interceding in lebanons affairs pretty consistantly since then.
88

True. That split between sunni (the ones who got the nod from the west) and shi'ite islam is, as far as Iran is concerned, what this past month has been about. For Syria I think it was about getting a little payback for being thrown out of Lebannon and a little showing the Lebonnese that they "need" Syria's involvement.



asw

[Maverick]

The Lebanese army is just the uniform portion of hezbollah. Kinda like letting the fox guard the hen house and bring friends too. Lebanon is just a tool and is owned by hezbollah.

[JB88]

well, at least if that is indeed the case, they will be in uniform and easier to spot.

i don't think that is entirely true however.  as i understand it, there has been an upswell of lebanese who would like to see the syrians and thier hezbollites sent packing.  

imagine what it must do to thier national identity to be constantly at war due to the meddling of others.

remember, it was the PLO who brought on the first isreali occupation of lebanon for the same reason (shelling on the border) and the sentiment in lebanon eventually soured to thier presence.

lebanon was once a very progressive society.

and lets not let iran confuse us with thier religiosities.  these are the persians, the descendants of saladin and the greater persian empire.  these are the ones that the europeans fought for the land that is now modern isreal time and time again.  

thier extremism is as much nationalism as it is anything else and we shouldnt allow ourselves to believe any differently.  religion is how they are riling up the poor and uneducated.

eventually the lebanese may just get fed up and fight back within thier own ranks to reclaim thier own nationalism.  that would be our best bet.  

the palestinians are not exactly loved amongst arabs, and the iranians are not even arabs, so there is always hope that they will stop letting thier unruly friends visit so long.

just my 2 again.

88

[Maverick]

JB,

Story on the news last night. Camera and crew in lebanon in the areas smashed by Isreal. It was the hezbollah folks out there acting as disaster relief, looking over damages and giving money, supplies and aid to the population, NOT the Lebanese government. They wqere acting like regualr insurance disaster agents and were promising a check in 48 hours for the damages. One individual who lost a home and business was on camera saying that hezbollah was there, the governent wasn't and that they trusted hezbollah more than thier own regular government to take care of them.

Like I said hezbollah owns lebanon. In the case shown on last nights news they were buying it right out from under the government.

[Gunslinger]

Originally posted by Maverick
JB,

Story on the news last night. Camera and crew in lebanon in the areas smashed by Isreal. It was the hezbollah folks out there acting as disaster relief, looking over damages and giving money, supplies and aid to the population, NOT the Lebanese government. They wqere acting like regualr insurance disaster agents and were promising a check in 48 hours for the damages. One individual who lost a home and business was on camera saying that hezbollah was there, the governent wasn't and that they trusted hezbollah more than thier own regular government to take care of them.

Like I said hezbollah owns lebanon. In the case shown on last nights news they were buying it right out from under the government.

yup good PR for them considering they started all of this.

[Sandman]

Originally posted by Gunslinger
yup good PR for them considering they started all of this.

Ahem... weren't the kidnapped Israelis captured in Lebanon?

[Nilsen]

Originally posted by lukster
Does anyone else think it's a bad idea for the Lebanese army to become entwined with Hezbollah? If Hezbollah is not disarmed what happens the next time they decide to incite fighting? How will Israel distinguish between Hezbollah and Lebanese regulars? I'm confident that Hezbollah would like nothing better than a full scale war between Lebanon and Israel. Looks like they may get it.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,208837,00.html

Not a perfect situation, but its prolly the best one.

Four ships including the one i served on is now getting ready to deploy to lebanon when they get the go. They will operate under UN command, but only if the UN gives the OK to shoot at anyone shooting at them or threatening them without having to ask anyone for permission first. They will enforce a blockade of weapons and ammunition bound for lebanon. A dangerous deployment but a good one.