Democrats Jump the Shark

[Charon]

I've long stated, and I'm hardly alone in this, that the Democrats could screw up a wet dream. They have this great opportunity handed to them (after fumbling the great opportunity of 2004), but how long until the meltdown?

Yeah, they have the increase in Blue Dog Democrats to moderate the party, but them Blue Dogs "just won't hunt" in NY and San Fran.

It's a populist "raise the minimum wage" chant today from Teddy et al, but how long until will we hear: "Taxpayer supported gay marriage for illegal immigrants!"

Iraq is almost too easy, yet it may be the issue they can slide by the most on giving the whole WTF do we do now anyway aspect.

The Democrats have a big tent, being pushed up by a big power woody right now. But there are different opinions under that big tent yearning to be free. So how long until they Jump the Shark and alienate the independents, moderates and swing voters. By 2008 certainly, but just how soon and over what issue?

It took the Republicans 6 years and a war, but then the Republican tent was far more stable. The Blue Dogs aren't going to play well since they want to serve more than 4 years and will be replaced if they play along with an agenda that is too liberal. The liberal wing will be under heavy pressure to "stick it to the man."

Opinions?

I'm not talking mild stuff (like the Pelosi/Murthra deal), but Bill Clinton style reform healthcare/Gays in the military initiative type of stuff.

I'll start. Immigration will be the first big Jump the Shark moment for Democrats, and it will play out by mid 2007. It's a hot issue, and while neither party wants to solve it the Republican's do a better job at lip service. The only hope the Democrats have is if it dies a natural, quite  death. I don't see that happening just yet.

Charon

[bsdaddict]

Originally posted by Charon
I've long stated, and I'm hardly alone in this, that the Democrats could screw up a wet dream. They have this great opportunity handed to them (after fumbling the great opportunity of 2004), but how long until the meltdown?

while I agree 100%, this phenomon isn't exclusive to the D's.  After Clinton, the R's missed the message by abandoning the classic principles that motivated the voters (the good conservative stuff like small gov't, lower taxes, states rights, etc...) and took it as a validation of the neocon agenda.  Just the same way the D's are now misinterpreting the voters.  Check out this quote from Kennedy in this article  on the minimum raise hike.

"If there is one message from this election that emerged loud and clear, it's that no one who works for a living should have to live in poverty," Kennedy said.

in one ear and out the other.  good grief!

[Gunslinger]

The worst part about all this is going to be an amnesty bill.  They will be supported by the president and it will be hard for those against it to shoot it down.

The other thing we will see alot of is usless investigations.  The are going to call alot of people onto the carpet to determine many things that previous oversight has figured out and spend a bunch of money to learn that very few laws where actually broken.

[eagl]

The iraq thing is easy.  Just quit funding it.  They've had that option twice a year for the entire duration of the war.  They're damn hypocrites for not taking it, but apparently it's not a very important issue since they have had the opportunity but failed to act.

There is a mid-year budget plus-up that is tied to almost zero other programs but the war.  Stopping that would halt the war overnight.  It was delayed for a couple of weeks 2 years ago and there was near-panic in the military.  We did the numbers and as a simple example, funding one month of flying in Iraq would have cut almost 4 months of training out of our annual flying program.  3 months delay on the mid-year supplement and we'd be done.

It's all about partisan politics and re-election.  If they used their constitutional right to stop funding the war, they wouldn't have the issue to harass the president with.  So keep funding the war while pretending to oppose it, and they look like heroes.  Nothing happens for more than one year without conscious congressional action to fund it, period.

[DREDIOCK]

Originally posted by eagl
The iraq thing is easy.  Just quit funding it.  They've had that option twice a year for the entire duration of the war.  They're damn hypocrites for not taking it, but apparently it's not a very important issue since they have had the opportunity but failed to act.

[/B]

Your assuming most Democrats are in favor of just pulling out plain and simple
And that isnt the case.
And few can agree that if we are to pull out. How to go about it.
Too many Democrats agree that we cant just pull out.
Nor will we.
Its not going to happen.

Problem is they all ran their mouths moaning and groaning and whining so much about it to demonise the right without having any real plan of their own to offer that is much different then whats already being done.

Like the saying goes.
"Be careful of what you ask for. You may just get it"

they would have been far better off toning it down just a little bit and saving it all for the big push in 08.

I predict that given their small majority. they are going to be able to do very little in the next two years to change things.
Something that may come back to haunt them
As about the only thing congress can manage to decide on doing quickly is vote pay raises for themselves

[eagl]

Nope, I don't assume most favor immediate pull-out.  But controlling the funding is a very powerful way of saying what they can and cannot do.

If you apply 50% of the funding, then they can only have 50% of the troops in theater.  Just keep whacking away with the budget stick until you get compliance.  That's how the constitution was set up to work.  I'm not sure why congress is determined to bypass their constitutional power to work through the media, but I'm convinced it's because they would rather try to make their political opponents look bad on TV than to actually do their job (making legislation).

[Charon]

Check out this quote from Kennedy in this article on the minimum raise hike.

Exactly bsdaddict.  I saw the press conference on C-Span and Kennedy was foaming at the mouth. I can't imagine minimum wage will be all that's pushed.

I believe many of the swing voters will give them some extended months of a grace period to "work with the President" on Iraq and they can bluff it and play politics for about that long, IMO. But... I think they will want to see at least some symbolic wheels set in motion soon. And, there is that vocal core of the base that wants the troops out yesterday and they fully believe the election provided a mandate for that -- and I doubt they'll be quite about it.

Charon