Chirac Losing It

[Habu]

Interesting article in the NY Times.

First he makes a bunch of outrageous statements regarding Iran making nuclear bombs and then the next day he retracts them.

Senile old git

[Toad]

Or else you just saw what Chirac really thinks; Iran with a nuke really isn't a big problem. I wouldn't jump to "senility" just yet. Maybe that is his true position and thus the true position of the French government.

There are divisions within the French government — and between Europe and the United States — about how much Iran should be punished for behavior that the outside world might not be able to change. Some French officials worry that the more aggressive course of action by the United States toward Iran will lead to a confrontation like the Iraq war, which France opposed.

In noting the sanctions against Iran that were imposed last month by the Security Council, Mr. Chirac warned Tuesday that escalation of the conflict by both sides was unwise. “Of course we can go further and further, or higher and higher up the scale in the reactions from both sides,” he said. “This is certainly not our thinking nor our intention.”

Maybe it was just a peek behind the curtain.

As far as his contention that they can't launch on Israel, I think he misses the change in tactics. I seriously doubt any country planning such a move would launch from their homeland. That'd be like painting a bullseye on your own forehead. Rather, the weapon would be supplied to a shadow group with suicide troops (maybe Hezbolla which is said to be under heavy Iranian influence) so that there would be at least some doubt about the true source of the weapon/strike.

In this world it would take only a shred of doubt to protect Iran from any retribution.

[Habu]

Mr. Chirac, who is 74 and months away from ending his second term as president, suffered a neurological episode in 2005 and is said by French officials to have become much less precise in conversation.

The French policy on nuclear proliferation has always been dangerous and reckless.

The Iraqi nuclear program of the late 70's and early 80's was to construct a French designed and built reactor solely for the purpose of making nuclear weapons. The French knew this and did not care despite the turmoil such a development would have had on the middle east.

Read his comments in that article and see how little the top opinion on that subject has changed.

Allowing nuclear weapons to be developed by country lead by a Holocaust denier who has avowed to wipe Israel off the map is pure maddness.

[Bodhi]

Originally posted by Toad
In this world it would take only a shred of doubt to protect Iran from any retribution.

The only problem with that logic John is that the onboard Uranium will have it's own very distinct signature.  So, like DNA in a crime, they will be able to prove Iran was responsible.

[Toad]

Are there any officially certified samples or profiles of the product of the Iranian refinement process?

I don't think there are. Further, I'm sure when the time comes to get one they will either refuse or pull a switcheroo and provide something that does not corelate to their production process.

[Bodhi]

I think the problem with that will be the centrifuges.  They will be too highly contaminated to allow for a "switcheroo".  But, then again, I am not a nuclear physicist and am only speculating.  

The scary thing is that the liberals will probably have completely disarmed us by the time Iran tries it anyway....  

[Toad]

You assume that they will allow the centrifuges to be inspected and samples taken.

[Habu]

If a nuclear attack is launched against a country like Israel the response will be in minutes not days or weeks.

Such an attack would not be a one off event but part of a plan by the attacker to wipe them off the map. Thus Israel would would not sit by for a month or so while samples are collected and analysed and then sit though some sort of trial where guilt is determined. Finally a decision is made to retaliate and then and only then a nuclear retaliatory attack is launched (against an empty city).

It doesn't work that way.

[Captain Virgil Hilts]

Originally posted by Toad
You assume that they will allow the centrifuges to be inspected and samples taken.

Which further assumes that all centrifuges will be known. Not likely.

Everyone keeps saying everything nuclear has a DNA like signature. The problem is that you have to have the original to compare it to. The idea that some agency some where knows about EVERY SINGLE PIECE of nuclear material is wishful thinking at best.

When it happens, and it probably will, having a DNA like signature from the material used will be real comforting to the victims and their families. Almost as comforting as having DNA evdience from a murder but nothing to compare it to in the way of known DNA samples. And just about as useful.

[Toad]

Originally posted by Habu
If a nuclear attack is launched against a country like Israel the response will be in minutes not days or weeks.

Such an attack would not be a one off event but part of a plan by the attacker to wipe them off the map. Thus Israel would would not sit by for a month or so while samples are collected and analysed and then sit though some sort of trial where guilt is determined. Finally a decision is made to retaliate and then and only then a nuclear retaliatory attack is launched (against an empty city).

It doesn't work that way.

Tell me how this works.

A nuclear device is smuggled into Tel Aviv by unknown parties; shipping container, back of an Abdul's Rental truck, whatever. The device is exploded dead center down town.

In minutes, Israel responds and hits.... what country?

We have the same problem in the US, btw.

[Captain Virgil Hilts]

Originally posted by Toad
Tell me how this works.

A nuclear device is smuggled into Tel Aviv by unknown parties; shipping container, back of an Abdul's Rental truck, whatever. The device is exploded dead center down town.

In minutes, Israel responds and hits.... what country?

We have the same problem in the US, btw.

EXACTLY.

And even if you DID know where the device came from, it wouldn't matter. The devices (yes, that's plural, they'll be like Lay's potato chips, you won't get just one) will be in the hands of terrorist groups who already don't give a damn about anyone outside their little group, and they have little or no regards for human life even within their group. If they were in the hands of Hamas or Hezbollah (a radical wing of either, most likely), for example, you can be sure neither group will be bothered in the least if the victim of the attack reduced the source of the weapon to glowing rubble. In fact, that would be the best possible excuse to trigger the next device. Given the desire of the current regime in Tehran to see the Islamic version of the Apocolypse, it wouldn't even be a surprise.

The most likely scenario, given the mindset of the people involved, is that they end up with several devices in several locations. Each retaliatory strike will be followed by the triggering of another device, at least until they run out of devices. Because they don't care who they kill. No one is innocent. Not even their own.

[Habu]

Simple

Tehran. About 5 minutes after the bomb goes off.

Then the next 5 biggest towns in Iran.

You can't make plutonium in your basement. If you have a reactor then you are going to be held accountable, even if you got a terrorist to do your dirty work.

And while that is going on I am sure North Korea and Pakistan would be sweating bullets while the US ponders if they were responsible.

[Hap]

Originally posted by Captain Virgil Hilts
Because they don't care who they kill. No one is innocent. Not even their own.

This rings very true.

hap

[Toad]

Andi if it later turns out that Syria had purchased the materials and they were responsible, how would you explain that to Iran?

Or are you just in the "nuke SOMEONE" mode?

[Habu]

Toad it would not matter.

Do you think that it mattered that Iraq was in no way responsible for 9-11 when the US invaded it?

When a bomb goes off your enemies will pay. Even if they did not deliver it personally. If you don't respond you will be extinct in a short time.

Do you not think Russia could not have snuck a bomb into the US all through the cold war? Why did they not do it? They could have had one stored in NYC in a basement just waiting for the right time to set it off.

Why did Russia instead build billions of dollars of military junk that probably would not have worked if ever needed instead?

It was because both Russia and the US had an understanding. You don't f*ck with nuclear weapons. If you do then you will be obliterated. And since both sides knew that there was no winner in a nuclear war neither ever stepped over that line.

Why do you think Russia backed down in the Cuba missle crisis? It was because there was a line in the sand and the US would have attacked their ships and then they would have had to go to war against the US. So they backed down.

If you think the response to a nuclear attack on Israel would be careful investigation you are deluded. Israel would have no choice but to nuke their biggest enemies who were capable of carrying out the attack.

The scary thing about all of this is people believe Iran and its leadership is crazy enough to try an attack.