Economics – Population Question

[eskimo2]

A company/factory opens up in the middle of nowhere.  It employs a cross-section of people: management, engineers, marketing, factory workers, maintenance people, etc.  1,000 people are employed.  They bring their families and a city springs up.  People of all typical occupations move into the city to support and serve the company/factory workers and each other: doctors, grocers, lawyers, policemen, firemen, educators, restaurant owners & workers, city employees, shop owners & workers, repairmen, landscapers, etc.  

If the product that the company/factory produces is the only real export of the city; what is the city’s population?

Note that the key to this question is not simply determining how many doctors/lawyers, grocers/etc. a city of 1,000 needs because the doctors/lawyers, grocers/etc. must also support/serve each other.

Related Question:
A company/factory that will employ 1,000 opens up in a city of 100,000.  Does its population eventually swell by the same amount if the company’s product represents the only change in the city’s exports?

[FBplmmr]

if they are building conveyor belts I am going to ask skuzzy to lock this !

the large city doesn't swell as much because the services already exist and are most likely not running "at capacity"  where as the "new city" becomes a "new market" for enterprising people to move in and provide services.

[eskimo2]

Originally posted by FBplmmr
if they are building conveyor belts I am going to ask skuzzy to lock this !

LOL!

Maybe they are just making one really big one!

[Xargos]

How many are illegal aliens?

[kamilyun]

Not an economics major here, but it's an interesting question to chomp on.  However, I think this question is a lot like the conveyor belt question!

Hypothetically, the city could grow to infinity!

I initially thought it was simply a question of import/export balance, but then the US economy and population are growing despite our "trade deficit"

[Debonair]

they need an airport too:aok:aok:aok:aokunless the factory guys are a bunch tightwads:mad: :mad:jerks

[john9001]

i want the starbuks franchise for that city.

[Rolex]

Your question can't be answered without knowing the location of the factory, which determines birthrate and multipliers for taxpayer support services.

But, standard economic averages indicate a 1,000 employee factory will create 4,720 jobs.

[eskimo2]

Originally posted by Rolex
Your question can't be answered without knowing the location of the factory, which determines birthrate and multipliers for taxpayer support services.

But, standard economic averages indicate a 1,000 employee factory will create 4,720 jobs.

Wow, location determines the birthrate?  How much can it sway?  

I’m happy with your “standard” though, Thanks!

We’ll figure this factory has a typical age range, marriage rate, offspring, etc.  Is this a standard thing they teach in economics?  Was this your major, or did you just retain this from macroeconomics somehow?  Also, would it change things much if it was a higher income factory versus a lower income one?

[john9001]

does this factory have a conveyor belt?

[eskimo2]

Rolex,

The 4.72 multiplier, this means that each factory job will create 3.72 more jobs.  How many dependants/children will there be?  Let’s assume that for some reason a typical average of retired folks also move into town, what does that do to the question?  Or is that absurd, do all old people move to Florida?

[FBplmmr]

Originally posted by eskimo2
Rolex,

The 4.72 multiplier, this means that each factory job will create 3.72 more jobs.  How many dependants/children will there be?  Let’s assume that for some reason a typical average of retired folks also move into town, what does that do to the question?  Or is that absurd, do all old people move to Florida?

i did

[Rolex]

My masters was in political economics. I remember a 3.72 multiplier as being the secondary and tertiary jobs created, but it may be the total, including the workers. I'm not 100% sure now because it's been almost 20 years since I helped two large companies establish subsidiary factories in the US, Mexico, UK, Germany, Thailand, Belgium, Ireland, Malaysia and China.

Birth rates by nation vary by 600%. That's significant.

My point is, you have to pick a location and time, eskimo. That determines what "typical averages" you can use for income, family size, marriage rates, tax base for infrastructure, local norms for social services people and facilities, etc. "The middle of nowhere" is leading you down the same path as the conveyer thread. A problem intended as a simple system force vector analysis with the items meant to be ignored not stated was turned it into an engineering problem.

This is more complicated because at least a dozen conditions required to even make a guess have not been clarified.

Less than 10,000 people is a good ballpark guess assuming 55% marriage rate and less than 2 children per married couple.

[storch]

you forgot the prostitutes, dope dealers and used car sale people.

[Rolex]

It's located in "the middle of nowhere,'" not south Florida...