Author Topic: Veto it again  (Read 1099 times)

Offline john9001

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 9453
Veto it again
« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2007, 07:38:48 PM »
Originally posted by Sandman
This just in... Iraq has already been mismanaged.


there you go again Moriarty, always with the negative.

Offline -CodyC

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 175
Veto it again
« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2007, 08:14:42 PM »
Hornet and gunslinger im not disagreeing with you guys, but take a look at this page and tell me what it would matter to us if Iran did control Iraq.
Imports
By those numbers, if Iran cut off our oil supply from Iraq that would equate to 5% of our daily consumption, which is by no means small.  So now iran has control of iraq, what happens next? You say they bully Saudi Arabia.  Well take a look at this link.
Demographic
If that map correctly distributes the muslim religion through the middle east then do you expect all of those countries that are almost completely Sunni to sit by and let the Shi'as do as they please?

I personally don't think we should leave Iraq anytime soon, because I agree that Iran would move into Iraq.  Im not there, nor will i quote any statistics about how much better it is getting there, because i don't know.  However if we leave the only thing that will change is that there will be no Americans for them to kill.  Eventually the people will grow tired of the death and distruction with or without our presense.  If we're gone iraq becomes a breeding ground for state sponsored terrorism and we go through it all over again.

On the other hand say we leave and Iran invades Iraq.  What if the Sunnis actually do something about this?  What if neighboring Sunni nations react negatively towards Iran?  So now it is Sunni on Shi'a and they are sorting out their own problems.  Sunnis largely outnumber the Shi'a, is there a chance for resolution?  Do you think Iran will see that they are largely outnumbered and back down from an impending threat?  I dunno the answers to this, it's all hypothetical.  But if we leave we are gambling on the Sunnis standing up to the Shi'a in Iraq.  If it goes down as you say hornet and Iran takes over Iraq and then is able to bully Saudi Arabia, well that would risk some 20% of our daily oil imports.

This is all a game of "What ifs?" and makes for good debate.

Offline Gunslinger

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10084
Veto it again
« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2007, 08:55:23 PM »
good post cody but consider this.  There is more demand for oil then there is supply.  If we can't get that 5% from there then we have to get it from somwhere else.  Where?????

Not to mention every time there's a fart in the region the prices get jacked with.

It's not just about supply though, there's alot of income be made for a country like Iran.  Do you want a country like that be "rich" as well?

Offline tedrbr

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1813
Veto it again
« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2007, 09:04:20 PM »
2 month appropriations can't work.  Iraq and Afghanistan operations have been borrowing from the U.S. Air Force and Navy budgets for months now to fund Army and Marine operations.  Many non-combat operation expenditures have been getting deferred to support operation expenses world wide.  
A 2 month "allowance" only creates more problems, and will probably effect programs to improve and up armor vehicles in the war zone next.  TUSK kits for Abrams tanks for urban environments, Falcon III AN/VRC-110's to replace older SINCGARS radios in theater.  They will have to fund food, fuel, payroll, bonuses, and bullets as the priority --- which means equipment cuts.

Larger issue about the "Will of the People" to pull out.
So, will America's new motto be  "When the going gets tough, the U.S. gets going?"  Is Rome falling?  Are we as a nation a paper tiger now?  

Will of the people?  Please! Going INTO this war after a quick victory in Afghanistan and still seething over 9/11 was POPULAR with the American John Q. Public.   Look at what happened to the Dixie chicks as an example of how the Will of the People reacted to anti-war talk back then.

Since we were the one's who went in and broke the country, we have no obligation to fix it?  "Sorry 'bout the mess and all the dead Iraqis.  Good luck to you.  Don't forget to write." ??

Now, the War was won, but the Peace and Nation Building was screwed up by the numbers from the Administration, the State Department, the Intelligence Community, the Pentagon, and last, but not least CONGRESS.  Plenty of blame to go around Disneyland on the Potomac.

* Not enough boots on the ground.  No where near enough.

* Firing 400,000 Iraqi soldiers, sailors, and airmen who were courted to sit on the sidelines during the invasion - who were led to believe they'd work for the new management - who knew where much of the ordnance and equipment was stashed around the country - many who were little more than thugs.  
Many of which military planners had originally counted on to secure the country (and thus allow us to invade with lower numbers).
All cut loose to instead join the insurgency, the militias, raid ord sites, make IED's and VBIED's, or turn to organized crime in hijacking convoys and kidnapping people for ransom.  (May be the single biggest blunder of whole fiasco).

* The Jiffy Pop Constitution and weak central Iraqi government.  
Congress most of all, but everyone pressuring a new Iraq to come up with a microwave constitution and quick elections.  Took the U.S.ofA. THIRTEEN YEARS to come up with a Constitution, and we weren't ready to kill each other in age old blood feuds.   To think that a divided Iraqi people in a middle east culture could come up with a good constitution and government in less than a year was foolish.  
So, we got a government of compromise and with no central power or authority.  We'd have been better off with a constitutional monarchy with the old King or a interim dictatorship-- but American prejudices toward "democracy" and "freedom" would not allow any thought of a regionally traditional government that had a chance at providing a strong central government.  

* Thinking Jordan, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or anyone else in the neighborhood has ANY interest in a stable Iraq with western ties.  
They have their own sectarian differences, they don't want American bases next door, they don't want Iraqi oil on the market, they don't want to close their borders to allowing the more fanatic of their citizens from going to Iraq to get killed fighting Americans, and they earn money in American contracts in support of the war in some cases (Kuwait, UAE, Qatar).
People looking to Iraq's neighbors to help the situation are fools.

* Wrong equipment for wrong kind of war, and not enough on hand since the draw down from the 1990's.

There are others, many others, but those are some of the big ones.

Yes: Over 3,350 American troops KIA.  Another 800+ contractors killed.  Another 25,000+ wounded.  All since March 2003.  

Some figures put it at 3,000 to 4,000 Iraqis are killed every month.  The United States created that situation.  I can already hear responses with shades of "their lives are not worth nearly as much".  (How Christian of those that feel that way.  I'll stay agnostic.)  Guess I have a different perspective by actually spending a tour in Iraq trying to help and interacting with Iraqis nearly every day, and seeing them as people.

5,000 American service veterans commit suicide every year.  Where's the public concern for them?  

"Will of the People".  I might buy into that if a higher percentage of the people actually got out and voted, and if they were not so much a mass, uninformed, reactionary mob most of the time.  They were "for" the war in the beginning.  Now it's en vogue to be "against" the war.  Oh lookit!, we're with the popular kids!  Maybe it's time to go all Starship Troopers and only give citizenship and the vote to those that serve?

Going in was a mistake.  The conduct of the war from the government leadership was abysmal.  Mistakes were legion.  But to do a 180 turn and pull out leaving the mess we've created is probably the worst of many bad choices we could make.

There is no longer a "Win" situation.  There will be no "victory" in Iraq.  Too many mistakes have been made along the way.  We've come now to a point at choosing among various "bad" solutions.  Leaving them to their own devices is one of the more bad choices in the long term from a geopolitical and regionally strategic perspective.   If the region implodes after we pull out: can western economies survive $150 per barrel sweet crude?

My fear:  To save some lives now (and political expediency) will cost many more American servicemen and women their lives later.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2007, 09:06:57 PM by tedrbr »

Offline Odee

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2718
      • 49th Fighter Group
Veto it again
« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2007, 09:23:21 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Sandman
This just in... Iraq has already been mismanaged.
True, true... But until now, not at the levels it was during 'Nam

Quote
Tedrbr sez: Maybe it's time to go all Starship Troopers and only give citizenship and the vote to those that serve?

I've always thought that should be the case, and for the same reason Heinlein said.
~Nobodee~   Get Poached!
Elite: Dangerous ~ Cmd Odeed

http://www.luxlibertas.com/

Offline bj229r

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6735
Veto it again
« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2007, 10:38:13 PM »
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20070510-120705-6975r.htm
Quote
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates yesterday told Congress that al Qaeda will establish a stronghold in Iraq's Anbar province if U.S. troops pull out prematurely and that the group is reacting to the war debate in Washington by stepping up attacks.
    Furthermore, the entire war effort will be disrupted unless Congress quickly passes an emergency funding bill acceptable to President Bush, he said.
    Mr. Gates' testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee preceded today's scheduled House vote on a bill that the White House promises to veto because it rations war spending and sets up a July vote to cut off funds if progress in Iraq is inadequate.
    "If we were to withdraw, leaving Iraq in chaos, al Qaeda almost certainly would use Anbar province as another base from which to plan operations not only inside Iraq, but first of all in the neighborhood and then potentially against the United States," Mr. Gates told the committee.
    The hearing was on the $481 billion Pentagon budget request for the next fiscal year, which is separate from the nearly $100 billion that Mr. Bush requested to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan until Sept. 30, the end of the current fiscal year.
    Mr. Gates said delays in approving emergency funds -- which the president asked for more than three months ago -- have hampered the war effort.
    He said al Qaeda is a "thinking enemy" that has adapted its strategies as the United States changes its own. The group also is expanding both its organization and terrorist capabilities, Mr. Gates said.
    "We know that al Qaeda has re-established itself ... on the western border of Pakistan where they are training new recruits," he said. "They have established linkages now in North Africa. Al Qaeda has actually expanded, I would say, its organization and its capabilities."
    The Army has slowed spending at bases in the United States and plucked $1.6 billion from Air Force and Navy accounts to fill funding gaps at the battlefront, Mr. Gates said, adding that more raids of military accounts are likely.
    "If we pulled out all the stops, used everything possible available to us, we could probably fund the war into July," he said. "But I would tell you the impact on the Department of Defense, in terms of disruption and canceled contracts and programs, would be huge if we had to do that.".






http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200705/POL20070510a.html
 
Quote
Democrats hoping to win control of the White House in 2008 must seize the "golden opportunity" presented by failures in the war in Iraq and rethink their approach to national security, according to a security analyst and former staffer for Vice President Al Gore.

"Iraq continues to deteriorate, with the triumph of 2003 becoming the tragedy of 2007 and beyond," Lawrence Haas writes in the latest issue of the Journal of International Security Affairs. "Americans are increasingly angry at this turn of events and are laying the blame squarely at President Bush's doorstep."

"For Democrats, who desperately want to regain the White House, the political opportunity is obvious," writes Haas, a former communications director for Gore and a former communications director for the Office of Management and Budget under President Bill Clinton.

Haas speculates that the war in Iraq "has given Democrats an opening - but only an opening, not a guarantee of future political success," and outlines steps Democrats must take to regain the American people's trust on national security issues.


If the Dems WANTED us to lose how would their actions/words be any different?
Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers

http://www.flamewarriors.net/forum/

Offline -CodyC

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 175
Veto it again
« Reply #21 on: May 10, 2007, 11:14:37 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Gunslinger
good post cody but consider this.  There is more demand for oil then there is supply.  If we can't get that 5% from there then we have to get it from somwhere else.  Where?????

Not to mention every time there's a fart in the region the prices get jacked with.

It's not just about supply though, there's alot of income be made for a country like Iran.  Do you want a country like that be "rich" as well?

Ok. Then i direct you to this site, which is more useful than just a quote on our oil reserves.
Oil Reserves
My calculations based on the numbers from this site put our oil reserves at a little more than 3 years.  Also we would only be losing 5% of the oil we bring in and in the past Saudi Arabia has been very good about increasing the amound of oil it exports to us.  Even if saudi arabia didn't do this, we're losing 493,000 barrels per day by a hypothetical situation in which iran takes over iraq and cuts our supply.  Well if we took this amount out of our oil reserves then we would deplete our reserve in a little more than 124 years.  This is all quick calculation on my part, so feel free to criticize them if you come up with something different.  This of course is all a hypothetical that  i don't agree with, but i pose the question because i think about it as an argument for why we should leave.

I agree with everything tedrbr has said, hard not to.

bj229r, democrats in this situation are like people who think that everything will work out in the end no matter what we do.  Well it's not as simple as that because there are more factors that play significant parts in the situation.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2007, 12:03:12 AM by -CodyC »

Offline rpm

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15661
Veto it again
« Reply #22 on: May 10, 2007, 11:16:30 PM »
You Bushbois keep throwing the tattered fear card "we'll lose the war!!!". What you don't understand is we already won the war 4 years ago. But your CIC lost the occupation for us. Don't try to deflect the blame on the democrats stand up and take credit for poor planning and it's result. Today we are referees in a civil war. How the **** are you going to win that?

You want referees in the middle of a civil war? Send in the UN.
My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives.
Stay thirsty my friends.

Offline Eagler

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 18837
Veto it again
« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2007, 12:33:51 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by rpm
You want referees in the middle of a civil war? Send in the UN.


the UN was there remember? they left when the going got tough just as the dems want us to now

Explosion Rocks U.N. Mission in Baghdad
"Masters of the Air" Scenario - JG27


Intel Core i7-13700KF | GIGABYTE Z790 AORUS Elite AX | 64GB G.Skill DDR5 | 16GB GIGABYTE RTX 4070 Ti Super | 850 watt ps | pimax Crystal Light | Warthog stick | TM1600 throttle | VKB Mk.V Rudder

Offline Yeager

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10169
Veto it again
« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2007, 12:46:19 AM »
what a mess.
"If someone flips you the bird and you don't know it, does it still count?" - SLIMpkns

Offline rpm

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15661
Veto it again
« Reply #25 on: May 11, 2007, 01:34:54 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Bushboi Eagler
the UN was there remember? they left when the going got tough just as the dems want us to now.
Nice spin Bushboi. Only Bush is tough enough to fix Iraq, right? How come his kids are partying in the states instead of enlisting? Guess they are librul dems.
My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives.
Stay thirsty my friends.

Offline tedrbr

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1813
Veto it again
« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2007, 01:54:17 AM »
-CodyC

I have to point out to you that when it comes to the oil industry, actual hard numbers mean very little in the overall price of crude.  Nothing wrong with your numbers that I could see, but in the oil industry, numbers don't mean much.

Over the past decade, the estimated reserves of the oil fields in the Middle East have gone up.  No new big oil fields were found, and actual test data in those countries are a state secret, but the end numbers for total "proven" reserves have gone way up, with nothing to back those numbers.  The numbers mean nothing: they are fantasy.

As to percentages of who provides the western countries with how much oil.  It does not matter in regards to the Stock Market.  With oil and the Stock Market, it is ALL perception, and has very little to do with math.

15 British sailors get taken by Iran = oil prices spike.
Hurricane enters the Gulf = oil prices spike.
Summer approaches in the northern hemisphere -> oil refineries taken off line for "needed maintenance and upgrades" = oil prices spike.

If the U.S. pulls out of Iraq and leaves them to their own devices, and if it all blows up (which is quite possible, on several fronts) and spills over into the neighboring countries, or just general retaliation against western interests by any factor (including OPEC) in the region =  oil prices spike.  As the Middle East is so contentious, I'd expect a very significant, economy busting, recession driving oil price spike in that event.  

All on the perception of oil shortages. The trouble in South America and African oil fields certainly does not help matters now either.  An even bigger bottle neck to oil prices than oil production is refinery capacity; but you tend to hear much more about oil production, and much less about refinery capacity.


I also have to agree to some degree with bj229r; there are many in political circles who are looking to turn the failure in Iraq into short term political gain at the expense of national long term interests.  They will wave the bloody shirt to gain votes.  Never mind the costs later, it's all about the next election.


We are supposedly the leader of the free world.  We enter a country that was no direct threat, break said country, depose that country's government, show the world how to screw up nation building by the numbers, then wish to pull out and leave things a mess since things did not go like we convinced ourselves they would.  It got hard, and we want to take our toys and go home now.  That describes an impatient, petulant child more than a country proposing to be a world leader.
I know many would-be isolationists don't care at all, but for those that live in the real world of global trade, international terrorism, strategic resources, and other non-isolationists issues confronting America:  how does the above scenario effect America's security and  interests around the world in the future?

Offline tedrbr

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1813
Veto it again
« Reply #27 on: May 11, 2007, 02:24:31 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by rpm
You Bushbois keep throwing the tattered fear card "we'll lose the war!!!". What you don't understand is we already won the war 4 years ago. But your CIC lost the occupation for us. Don't try to deflect the blame on the democrats stand up and take credit for poor planning and it's result. Today we are referees in a civil war. How the **** are you going to win that?

You want referees in the middle of a civil war? Send in the UN.


All the idiots in Disneyland on the Potomac have contributed to the mess in Iraq.  Administration, State Department, BOTH Sides of CONGRESS, the Intelligence Community, and the Pentagon Brass.  Doesn't come down to any 1 person.

Congress, IIRC, on a whole, was the biggest PITA pushing the Transitional Authority for a series of quickie elections and the Jiffy-Pop Constitution in Iraq.  That headlong rush into unknown territory led us to a highly divisive, weak Iraqi central government.  The same government that is corrupt, influenced by Iranian factions, in some circles support death squads, is led by a highly compromised and weak leadership.  The same government that we in America are puzzled over why they can't stand on their own feet and gain control of their country.


As to the United Nations or NATO as peace keepers or referees.  Pass.  Neither is very good at it:

In Afghanistan, the U.S. retains military command of half it's forces in country to conduct operations, while the other half are part of the overall NATO contingent.  The NATO contingent have placed many restrictions on their use of combat power in Afghanistan, which has greatly reduced their ability to patrol and control the sectors they (sort of) operate in.  

In the case of the U.N.  I would ask you read up on the United Nations, Executive Outcomes (an early PMC), and a little country called Sierra Leone.
Quote
Between 1991 and 1995 Sierra Leone descended into a state of violent anarchy with both rebels and renegade government soldiers waging a war of terror against civilians—torching villages, hacking people to death, or chopping off their hands, feet, and genitals. .......So the young Sierra Leonian military president turned to the international market and hired Executive Outcomes. They agreed to destroy the rebels and restore law and order in return for 15 million dollars and diamond mining concessions. Within a year EO stabilized the country enough for the population to line up for its first presidential elections in twenty-eight years.
EO did this with several hundred mercs and two helicopters, all in less than 1 years time from getting the contract.

The U.N. was appalled by EO success and forced the government of Sierra Leone to cancel their contract with EO. the UN sent in the the UN Security Council established United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL) in 1999, with an initial force of 6,000 (took them 4 years to put this together), which failed to control a resurgence in the violence, and in fact had several hundred of it's UNAMSIL troops held hostage by the rebel RUF forces in early 2000 and the UN troop's arms, munitions, and equipment confiscated by the rebels.
Over 6,000 UN troops failed to hold the rebels at bay, where a couple hundred mercs had driven them to the peace table a few years before.

Bosnian Serb Army also took United Nations peacekeepers hostage, and Rwandan genocidaires killed Belgian blue helmets as well.  UN does not have a good record.

Neither the UN nor NATO have the ability to really be Peacekeepers.  Their political masters see to that every time.  They are ineffectual.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2007, 02:27:47 AM by tedrbr »

Offline Eagler

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 18837
Veto it again
« Reply #28 on: May 11, 2007, 07:18:05 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by rpm
Nice spin Bushboi. Only Bush is tough enough to fix Iraq, right? How come his kids are partying in the states instead of enlisting? Guess they are librul dems.


nice name calling - did you think that up yourself?
Is that your response to the answer to your statement the UN should to be handling it?
weak .. just like the dems yellow streaked retreat plan
"Masters of the Air" Scenario - JG27


Intel Core i7-13700KF | GIGABYTE Z790 AORUS Elite AX | 64GB G.Skill DDR5 | 16GB GIGABYTE RTX 4070 Ti Super | 850 watt ps | pimax Crystal Light | Warthog stick | TM1600 throttle | VKB Mk.V Rudder

Offline Odee

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2718
      • 49th Fighter Group
Veto it again
« Reply #29 on: May 11, 2007, 08:09:08 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Eagler
nice name calling - did you think that up yourself?
Is that your response to the answer to your statement the UN should to be handling it?
weak .. just like the dems yellow streaked retreat plan
and nice come back...  I was trying to come up with something equally snappy in reply to RPM's dimwitted name calling, and less than halfwit skewed view of the way the world works...

RPM; find someplace else to troll your Goreboi kaka... like maybe a Kindergarten class?

*there I lowered my self standards...  feel soiled, but relieved as well*
~Nobodee~   Get Poached!
Elite: Dangerous ~ Cmd Odeed

http://www.luxlibertas.com/