"A War We Just Might Win"

[Elfie]

Originally posted by crockett
You can't tell me you actually think that Saddam, would give Syria his WMD's for safe keeping..

Why not? During the first Gulf War Saddam sent a good portion of his Air Force to Iran for safe keeping. That didn't turn out so well for him since Iran didn't return those aircraft. It isn't beyond the realm of possibility for Saddam to have thought to try the same thing with any WMD's he may have had left, only this time to try it with a different *partner* in the hopes of a better result.

Considering he buried MiG's to hide them it isn't beyond the realm of possibility to consider he might have done the same thing with other weapons.

I'm not saying Saddam did these things but I am saying it is possible considering he had taken similar actions with other items.

[john9001]

Originally posted by crockett
You can't tell me you actually think that Saddam, would give Syria his WMD's for safe keeping..

in GW1 saddam flew his MIG's to Iran ( his mortal enemy)for safe keeping.

[crockett]

Originally posted by john9001
in GW1 saddam flew his MIG's to Iran ( his mortal enemy)for safe keeping.

Yes but Saddam didn't get them back..  

Sorry it's a jumbled mess.. cut and paste (you can read it here http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/airforce.htm last paragraph)

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At least 115 combat aircraft flew to Iran, out of the total of 137-149 aircraft flown to Iran or crashed enroute [including 15 Il-76s and some number of civilian airliners]. According to an official Iraqi statement, the aircraft included 115 combat aircraft, among them 24 Mirage F1s, 4 Su-20 Fitters, 40 Su-22 Fitters, 24 Su-24 Fencers, seven Su-25 Frogfoots, nine MiG-23 Floggers, and four MiG-29 Fulcrums. Reports that Saddam Hussein ordered 20 Tu-22 bombers to Iran appear unfounded. In 1993 it was reported that Russia was to provide Iran with spare parts, armaments, and operating manuals for the Iraqi jets that flew to Iran during the Gulf War. In 1993 it was reported that China had bought an unknown number of these MiG-29s from Iran, in exchange for Chinese missile technology and a nuclear power station. The two countries had reportedly reached agreement on the exchange in late 1992, with Iran having delivered some of the MiG-29s by the end of 1992. In 1998 Iraq and Iran had high-level meetings to discuss ending their state of war and other matters, including Iraq's request to have its airplanes back. Iran denied it had used any of the Iraqi fighter planes. If Iran had kept the Iraqi planes grounded for the entire time, they are probably nonfunctional -- the Iranians may not be able to start the engines or operate the hydraulics. Other reports suggest that some Su-24s have been added to Iran's existing inventory, some Su-20/22s were in Revolutionary Guard service. The Iraqi Su-25s, MiG-23s and Mirage F1s were thought by some to be not in service, due to age, low capability (MiG-23s) or too few numbers (Su-25). Other reports suggest that Iran had overhauled Iraq's fleet of 24 Mirage F-1B fighters and placed them into service.

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So do you really think, after that happened that he would trust Syria with his WMD's? Much less if he actually had WMD's why didn't he use them, knowing this was was a full scale invassion and not a slap on the wrist like DS1 was? Saddam had nothing to lose, it was clear this war was intended to take him out of power.

So why didn't he use his WMD's? oh probably because he didn't have them..

[Elfie]

If you did any research for your self on the Chemical weapons we "believed" he "may" of had. You would know that their "shelf life" had far passed their usefulness.

I did do my own research. Mustard gas has a very long shelf life. (Measured in decades) VX gas has a shelf life of around 10 years before it starts to degrade. How much degradation is needed before it becomes completely useless is something I never found the info on. That info might actually be classified.

Purity of the precursors has a large effect on the shelf life of all chemical weapons. The higher grade the precursors, the longer the shelf life. Sarin gas actually has a very short shelf life compared to other types of chemical weapons. In some cases, the shelf life is only a few weeks, at best (under premium conditions with high purity of precursors) 5 years. This issue with shelf life is why Iraq preferred to mix the chemicals prior to use rather than store the gas itself.

See I guess that's the difference between you and me. I did my own research. I didn't listen to what some politician or some expert tried to feed me.

Actually you did listen to what some expert tried to feed you when you did your research. Unless of course you yourself are an expert in chemical weapons. Then again, if you were an expert in chemical weapons you wouldn't have needed to do research.

[crockett]

Great... 10 years.. ok when was Desert Storm again?  Was that 1991?  See where I'm going with this...

[Elfie]

Much less if he actually had WMD's why didn't he use them, knowing this was was a full scale invassion and not a slap on the wrist like DS1 was? Saddam had nothing to lose, it was clear this war was intended to take him out of power.

My opinion on this. I don't think Saddam thought we would actually remove him from power. I also don't think he wouldn't have used any chemical weapons he may have had for a couple of reasons.

1) The US military has very good chemical warfare gear and would be expected to use it so the use of chemical weapons wouldn't be very effective.

2) If he had them and used them, it would have been complete and total justification for the invasion. I'm guessing that even as the invasion started that Saddam didn't think we would remove him from power if chemical weapons weren't found.

That's just my thoughts on the matter and they may be totally out in left field.

[john9001]

Originally posted by crockett

So why didn't he use his WMD's? oh probably because he didn't have them..

his command and control was disrupted, but the US intercepted msgs from his HQ to use the WMD's, why weren't they used? The special troops never got the msg, the troops knew the war was lost and did not want to be "war criminals", the troops had already deserted. Take your pick.

[FrodeMk3]

Elfie, I myself had seen some news clips during DS that said the Iraqi AF deserted, preffering internment in Iran to facing the combined air power of the U.S. and it's coalition allies, and it wasn't an order from HQ that made them fly there...I mean, correct me if I'm wrong.

[Elfie]

Originally posted by crockett
Great... 10 years.. ok when was Desert Storm again?  Was that 1991?  See where I'm going with this...

That was the best that I could find on VX gas. I think much of the information on VX gas is classified since it is such a deadly chemical. It could be longer, or it could be shorter. As civilians we really don't know for sure.

In regards to the VX gas, Iraq didn't just have the 1.5 tons of gas, they also had thousands of tons of precursors. Given Iraq's penchant for mixing the gas just prior to the intended use I think it's safe to say that VX gas was still a legitimate  threat on the battlefield.

[Elfie]

Originally posted by FrodeMk3
Elfie, I myself had seen some news clips during DS that said the Iraqi AF deserted, preffering internment in Iran to facing the combined air power of the U.S. and it's coalition allies, and it wasn't an order from HQ that made them fly there...I mean, correct me if I'm wrong.

Really? That is something I hadn't heard. Quite interesting if true.

Considering Saddam's brutality towards his own people when he found folks he no longer trusted, I'm not sure how true this is. Not saying it isn't, I just have my doubts.

Do you have any links to support this? I would be interested in seeing them if you do.

[FrodeMk3]

Here's a couple for starters, Elfie, but...one is Wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Air_Force#Gulf_War_and_no-fly_zones

And here's another one from globalsecurity.org.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/air-force-equipment-intro.htm


I threw the wiki entry in there because it would contradict what I said; The only problem with it is that it has no citation, and that being wiki, simply, anyone can edit and put anything they want.

[crockett]

Originally posted by john9001
his command and control was disrupted, but the US intercepted msgs from his HQ to use the WMD's, why weren't they used? The special troops never got the msg, the troops knew the war was lost and did not want to be "war criminals", the troops had already deserted. Take your pick.

If you honestly believe that, why didn't our US soldiers find the weapons? Did the Iraqi soldiers carry them off for war souvenirs?

[crockett]

Originally posted by Elfie
That was the best that I could find on VX gas. I think much of the information on VX gas is classified since it is such a deadly chemical. It could be longer, or it could be shorter. As civilians we really don't know for sure.

In regards to the VX gas, Iraq didn't just have the 1.5 tons of gas, they also had thousands of tons of precursors. Given Iraq's penchant for mixing the gas just prior to the intended use I think it's safe to say that VX gas was still a legitimate  threat on the battlefield.

The problem with that, is the fact we had put Iraq under sanctions for 10 plus years.. We had bombed his infrastructure to nothing and UN and even our own govt agreed that he was contained and couldn't produce WMD's with any wide scale success prior to 9/11.

I just don't understand why you guys fail to see that even this admin publicly stated that Saddam was zero threat to the United States. At best maybe a regional threat in another 10 years. This was said several times by the Bush admin prior to 9/11.

Funny as soon as they had 9/11 to use as an excuse, their minds changed about Iraq's capacity for WMD's. They are right 9/11 changed everything, it gave them the excuse to do just about anything they wanted.

btw Elfie..

With the current crop of scandals in this white house. Seeing how easy they will lie under oath claiming they know nothing about this or that. Doesn't that make you question what they have told you in the past?

How can anyone blindly just accept anything this admin says when they hold our laws in contempt.

[Elfie]

During Operation Desert Storm the Iraqi Air Force did not seek to challenge Coalition air forces, and nearly half the Iraqi Air Force fled to Iran to escape destruction. Why the IQAF fled to Iran is not precisely known, and the answer may never be fully known. In any case, Iraqi fighters and support aircraft fled for the border -- more than 120 left. O

From your second link.....

We probably won't ever know for sure the real reasons all those planes fled to Iran. What we do know is that this didn't work out so well for Saddam.

I've seen that Wiki article before, most of the stuff is documented except the part about the agreement between Iran and Iraq to hold the Iraqi planes until the war was over.

[Elfie]

The problem with that, is the fact we had put Iraq under sanctions for 10 plus years.. We had bombed his infrastructure to nothing and UN and even our own govt agreed that he was contained and couldn't produce WMD's with any wide scale success prior to 9/11.

He had the chemicals to make them at some point. Where/when they were destroyed or hidden is unknown. (At least for some of them, some things were documented as having been destroyed.)

I just don't understand why you guys fail to see that even this admin publicly stated that Saddam was zero threat to the United States.

When has the administration ever said this? This administration has always maintained that Iraq was a threat in various ways. Whether it was WMD or supporting terrorism, this administration has maintained that Iraq was a threat.

Funny as soon as they had 9/11 to use as an excuse, their minds changed about Iraq's capacity for WMD's.

That isn't entirely accurate either. The Clinton administration also believed Iraq still had WMDs, as did the UN. Why else would the UN inspectors have been sent back to Iraq time and time again?

They are right 9/11 changed everything, it gave them the excuse to do just about anything they wanted.

While that may or may not be true at this point it is merely speculation.

How can anyone blindly just accept anything this admin says when they hold our laws in contempt.

Again you are assuming that's what we are doing. Some of us just want to see hard evidence before we try, convict and sentence them based on allegations and speculation.