General Climate Discussion

[Angus]

Lazs, a 30 year Nino is unique and as noted would even be successful in killing a civilization like ours.
And FYI, Nino is a warming effect yes? But it doesn't work the same way everywhere.
La Nina is a cooling effect, and AFAIK we're in a middle one now.

As for the good weather, I am happy with the summer as it is...much warmer than what I grew up with.
However, my smile will definately disappear if the increase carries on, as well as storm frequency and extremity records.
We had really old records with both heat and cold falling this year, as well as the first hurricane in July adding to a record of very many storms in one year.
Just a minute, some pesstimistic alarmists actually said that would happen.....

[lazs2]

every day..  every week.. since the beginning of time there has been some "record" weather event somewhere in the world.   I predict that there always will be.. 

No day is like any other.   the el nino/la nina are not in our control.. the weather is not in our control.   

Your little corner of the planet has gotten a tiny bit warmer.. it will get cooler soon enough.. enjoy what mother nature has given you lately because she is not always as benevolent.

lazs

[Angus]

My little corner and many other big or smaller, summing up enough data to mage GW on its own manifested.

[Holden McGroin]

We had really old records with both heat and cold falling this year, as well as the first hurricane in July adding to a record of very many storms in one year.
Just a minute, some pesstimistic alarmists actually said that would happen.....

Really old...  That's the foundation of my skepticism.

Really old on what timescale?  What did the thermometer read in Reykjavík at noon local on 12 Oct 1214?

Tough to say as Galileo wasn't born yet to develop his thermometer... let alone Fahrenheit finally devising a standard scale.

The temperature of ancient climates is at best an approximation prior to  Fahrenheit.  You take this data and that data and with this theory of climate, derive an estimated temperatur, +/- 1 degree C.

right.

[Angus]

Since the beginning of measures silly.
Hence the drillings, glacial measures, tree-core examinations, Ice core measures, fossile examinations, ancient seed and pollen examinations, records of just about everything to get the mosaic together, where one additional bit is comparing all this with historical accounts.
Or should we discard the medival warm period? Where was the termometer?

[Jackal1]

Or should we discard the medival warm period?

MMGW I assume? 
Or....................Methane farting dragons. You gotta love em.

[lazs2]

angus anecdotal data is not the same.. it is like someone 300 years ago taking what you say and using it to show a less than normal amount of ice and snow in greenland.   The medievel warm periods and the little ice ages were filled with anecdotal data of things like rivers freezing and no snow for years at a time.  The temp in those areas would have to have been hotter/colder for that to happen.

It has been a mild summer so far..  that is why the alarmists have been pretty quiet.   they know that people are stupid reactionaries.   If we have a heat wave then they will be out in force with their "the end is nigh" plasterboards and "only sending money to albore will save us".

lazs

[Angus]

Lazs:
Anecdote is an anecdote basically...but in this case you will not find anecdotes older than weather measurements with instruments.
What we have is on print, or written through the centuries, and this is being compared to many sourced research.
Global Temp  research is not just about reading the air meter in the shadiest part of the back yard....

And Jackie, "MMGW?" as a topic will probably never make it past the "There is no GW or?" haggle in this thread.
Sort of like Galileo and the court. During court the earth still kept spinning......

[Baitman]

In recorded history, to early for a thermometer, one of the first people that came to the central plains of Canada reported back to the Queen that Canada was not fit for farming because it was too dry. Apparently he crossed into the plains in a period of drought.

There has also been reports in the 1800's sometime about ranchers in the West central part of Saskatchewan that the South Saskatchewan river was dry. They drove their cattle up the dry river bed for hundreds of miles before finding water.

To this day in recorded history (temperature), we have not seen the river run dry and we have been using the water for irrigation, drinking and so on.

[Angus]

Weather changes, no debate there....
The debate is whether the ball as a whole more or less (since weather changes) is warming in the last decades with increased speed even.
So, we have the ostridge camp biting on that it's just the weather or the sun, and then we have the concered camp, which think, hmmm,,,probably warming, why, and where will that lead too??. Then there is the doomsday camp.
I'm in the middle one.
Bait, will give you a glacier anecdote when I have time

[Baitman]

I understand the coring of the glaciers and such. Started reading up on this a long while back (later 80's) because it had to do with drilling since that is what I do I get very interested. Yes we have many glaciers some from small to very large (not as large as greenlands) but I am fortunate to be living between the mountains and be able to drive through them the last 30 odd years.

I remember back in the early seventies there were some parts that were concerned of an Ice age. We had concerns of glacier expanding over roads.

[Angus]

And now you don't...
The medieval warm period up here (well, not just so) actually managed to chop our main glaicer (some 10,000 sq km) into 2 or 3 parts. We're heading there very fast, so it's all quite interesting. But at the pace we are going, they'll all be gone in some 100 years with the last peaks leaving within 200 years.
The medieval warming period did not make it that far.
But it may be a myth, after all, it's just anecdotes scribbled on calfskin, as well as data from "scientists"....bahhh 

[Holden McGroin]

Since the beginning of measures silly.
Hence the drillings, glacial measures, tree-core examinations, Ice core measures, fossil examinations, ancient seed and pollen examinations, records of just about everything to get the mosaic together, where one additional bit is comparing all this with historical accounts.
Or should we discard the medieval warm period? Where was the thermometer?

All I am saying is that quoting some degree number from 1200 years or 12000 years ago is an estimate at best. 
Use the very best materials in your mosaic and the result is different if Picasso makes one and Leonardo makes another.

Tree rings go back only 2000 years, much smaller than the ice cores. Ice core reading give you an idea as to the chemical makeup of the atmosphere, maybe dust and pollen count, but where did that material come from?   
As I see it, the best indicator as to whether this era seems warmer or colder than another is forensic plant and animal remains. 

You go to New Foundland and find the remains of grape vines and you can gather that the climate may have been similar to where grape vines grow today.  Putting a temperature number to the climate is imprecise educated guesswork and when we are alarmed at a +/- 1C difference today, that educated guesswork derived number is meaningless.

[Holden McGroin]

...

[Angus]

All I am saying is that quoting some degree number from 1200 years or 12000 years ago is an estimate at best. 
Use the very best materials in your mosaic and the result is different if Picasso makes one and Leonardo makes another.

Tree rings go back only 2000 years, much smaller than the ice cores. Ice core reading give you an idea as to the chemical makeup of the atmosphere, maybe dust and pollen count, but where did that material come from?   
As I see it, the best indicator as to whether this era seems warmer or colder than another is forensic plant and animal remains. 

You go to New Foundland and find the remains of grape vines and you can gather that the climate may have been similar to where grape vines grow today.  Putting a temperature number to the climate is imprecise educated guesswork and when we are alarmed at a +/- 1C difference today, that educated guesswork derived number is meaningless.

Ehemm Holden, read up, for there are living trees TODAY that are more than 4000 years old. Close to 5000, with the oldest living one with a root system some 9500 years old, and that one is well in the northern hemisphere....
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/04/080414-oldest-tree.html
Tree rings from fossilized trees also exist, all the way to 70 million years ago, as well as leaf and animal fossiles.
I have found some, that are millions of years old and of course show without a doubt a completely different climate.
Tree trunks are also excavated.
Seeds are also sometimes excavated giving an idea of ancient flora. That will tell you where things rank in the Hotter, colder, or roughly equal department.
In my area in the medieval warming period there are claims of barley growing. Only anecdotes so far, however the description of the fields is pretty good. Then barley growing worked no more untill the 20th century, and in the last 10 years it's gone warm enough for wheat and corn.
My point is that biology as a whole tells you a lot about climate, and it's childish to claim that you can trust nothing but the termometer data of recent years (which gets debated here anyway). One has to look at everything, not just this: