Author Topic: Housing value crisis  (Read 1147 times)

Offline Chairboy

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Housing value crisis
« on: November 27, 2007, 03:39:01 PM »
The housing value crisis is getting bad.  



The dropping value of the dollar, the skyrocketing price of real-estate...  things are not super duper right now.  The sub-prime market isn't the problem, it's just the first symptom.  Buckle down, folks, and hang on.

NOTE: Adjusted for inflation, and the bottom of the scale is 60K, not zero.
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Offline Gunslinger

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2007, 04:20:47 PM »
Was I the only one who thought 2-4 years ago that buying a POS 1300 SqFt house for $500,000 in California or else were was the dumbest idea in the world?

Seriously the market got inflated and like all inflated items they tend to pop.  Too many people saw $$$ instead of caution signs.

Offline john9001

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2007, 04:36:17 PM »
it's the "investment buyers" (speculators), house flippers, and people that fell for the equity loan thing that will get burned, people that bought a house they could afford just to live in will still have a house to live in even if the price drops.

I'm looking to pick up a nice condo at a discount price.

Offline Chairboy

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2007, 04:37:34 PM »
Houses != ATMs.
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Offline Mr No Name

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2007, 04:57:15 PM »
house prices are CRAZYYYYY the same souse that i remember selling for 30K 25 years ago recently was put on the market for 180K!!!  There is NO DAMNED WAY it will ever be 'worth' that.  It might sell for that but thats only because of easy loans and a "I want it no matter what we have to pay for it' attitude.

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Offline ChickenHawk

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2007, 06:08:19 PM »
It's rather reminiscent of the dot com bubble in 99.
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Offline john9001

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2007, 06:18:25 PM »
florida goes through this every 15-20 years, boom an bust, boom an bust.

Offline midnight Target

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2007, 06:18:44 PM »
I've lost over 100k in equity on my house in CA. I can't give that **** away.

Offline eagl

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2007, 06:59:16 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by midnight Target
I've lost over 100k in equity on my house in CA. I can't give that **** away.


If you can afford to keep it another few years, you'll make it back.  CA home values will most likely keep going up, because the real demand on the land will keep going up while the price of building materials is skyrocketing.

If you're buying top of the market or obvious boom properties (like 2000 sq ft houses in silicon valley that went for $3 mil back in 2000) then yea you're an idiot, but other "normal" houses in CA are going to go up in value.

The key of course is to never ever ever buy a house with the understanding that you MUST sell it in the near future (inside 5 years) to keep from going bankrupt.  If you buy a house and the payments plus expenses (taxes, maintenance, etc) fit within your cash flow, then you're pretty much protected from property value downturns because even if your house loses it's resale value *this year*, you can keep making payments on it until the value goes back up.  There are very few places in CA where that is not true.

My parents bought "overpriced" houses in San Diego 25 and 15 years ago, and although the value of the houses have fluctuated by up to 50%, over time there is a very clear upward trend.  Yea if they'd been forced to sell because they were retards and couldn't afford some goofy interest only variable rate loan, then there were periods of up to a few years where they'd been in trouble.  But they bought within their cash flow and kept the houses for a long time.  Guess what - one house is STILL valued at 4x the purchase price and the other one is a whopping 8x the purchase price after 25 years.  That's not too shabby...

The trick is not over-extending with the original purchase.  Never buy a house you can't afford to keep through market downturns.
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Offline lasersailor184

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2007, 07:01:43 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Mr No Name
house prices are CRAZYYYYY the same souse that i remember selling for 30K 25 years ago recently was put on the market for 180K!!!  There is NO DAMNED WAY it will ever be 'worth' that.  It might sell for that but thats only because of easy loans and a "I want it no matter what we have to pay for it' attitude.

credit should not be granted until someone hits their mid-30s!


Exactly.  The problem here are the people.  They are going for larger and larger houses that they don't need paying for it with major mortgages.   With more and more people buying up the big realty POS McMansions faster than they can build them, it leads to a false inflated price.
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Offline AKIron

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2007, 07:04:18 PM »
Of course houses are only worth what people are willing and able to pay for them.



Well, unless you're the guberment, then they're worth whatever they can milk you for in property taxes.
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Offline lasersailor184

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2007, 07:08:46 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by AKIron
Of course houses are only worth what people are willing and able to pay for them.



Well, unless you're the guberment, then they're worth whatever they can milk you for in property taxes.



Another valid point showing the government's full on willingness to falsely appraise properties at more value to get more property tax from them.
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Offline bj229r

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2007, 07:16:43 PM »
No matter WHAT the economy does, the media spins it as bad news. (Thankfully this will be over when Hillary assumes  presidency) A few years ago...prices were high, and there were endless stories about poor shmucks who could NEVER afford the 'American dream'....so....lending rules were relaxed to allow afore-mentioned shmucks to buy houses, and NOW they are defaulting en mass, because they were too @#@#$$#$@#ing stupid to understand what happens to a floating mortgage when the rate goes up. :mad:
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Offline AKIron

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2007, 07:18:45 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by bj229r
No matter WHAT the economy does, the media spins it as bad news. (Thankfully this will be over when Hillary assumes  presidency) A few years ago...prices were high, and there were endless stories about poor shmucks who could NEVER afford the 'American dream'....so....lending rules were relaxed to allow afore-mentioned shmucks to buy houses, and NOW they are defaulting en mass, because they were too @#@#$$#$@#ing stupid to understand what happens to a floating mortgage when the rate goes up. :mad:


Much as I hate admitting it, Hillary does have the media (except Fox) in her camp and "news" will be rosey if the unimaginable happens and she wins the presidency.
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Offline SIG220

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Housing value crisis
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2007, 07:35:51 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by midnight Target
I've lost over 100k in equity on my house in CA. I can't give that **** away.


I've lost over $6k in my stock portfolio for calendar 2007, despite having what are considered quite conservative investments.

I have now taken most of my money out of the market.  I think that the recession that so many are predicting has already begun.

I am not at all optimistic about 2008.  Too many negative economic factors are all coming together at once.  The world is also becoming less and less stable.  

A full blown conventional war between Russia and NATO in the Balkans is a real possibility for next year.  

And with the United States military all bogged down in the Middle East, the nations of Western Europe would then have to take on Russia's military all on their own.

SIG 220