As for statistics,
When analyzing aircraft fleet accident rates, you must consider yearly utilization hours per aircraft. For instance, my aircraft alone has seen 500 hours of operation this year. How many aircraft on the field have you seen that have seen 50 hours in a year let alone 500?
* There is a trend in all airplanes toward decreasing utilization with age. Further, it is particularly striking with the SR22, more than any other airplane.
* Many new Cirrus A/C "seem" to be purchased by relatively new pilots who are still chasing hours and ratings. Flying is 'new' to many of them so any excuse to fly brings the SR out of the hangar.
* Cirrus aircraft are flown cross country IFR at a higher rate than average for light aircraft
* the product innovation and comfort with Cirrus attracts people to fly more
* Cirrus marketing has done a great job of selling the value of personal transportation to people who travel
Because of these and other factors, Cirrus airplanes have a much higher hours-per-year usage than the GA average. Although the FAA does not gather the necessary utilization information to know for sure, estimates of average Cirrus usage are about 200 hours per year vs about 50 hours per year GA light plane average. Aircraft usage/year rates are important when comparing fleet accident rates.
Past 36 months
As of December 1 2007, the fatal accident rate for Cirrus airplanes was 1.44 per 100,000 flying hours over the past 36 months. We use a 3-year average because, with a modest fleet size of 3,600 airplanes flying about 500,000 hours per year, the accident rate varies substantially with only a few accidents.
2007 year to date
For example, in the first six months of 2007, there was only a single accident so the rate is 0.33 per 100,000 hours.
Past 12 months
In the past 12 months, there were 7 accidents for a rate of 1.11 per 100,000 hours.
Lifetime of the fleet
In the life of the SR2X fleet since mid-1999, there were 31 accidents in 2.1 million hours for a rate of 1.50 per 100,000 hours.
GA fleet
This compares to the overall general aviation rate of 1.33 for 2006 (ref Nall report), which represents a tough comparison because it includes corporate jets and turboprops that have a significantly better accident rate than single engine piston airplanes. When twin-engine and turbine aircraft are excluded, the single-engine piston rate is 1.86 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours flown.
Now it's 31 fatal accidents involving 62 fatalities and 9 survivors.
Fatal accident rates are still hovering around the GA accident rate of 1.33 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours of flight time:
* 1.11 accidents per 100,000 hours in past 12 months
* 1.46 accidents per 100,000 hours in past 36 months
* 1.51 accidents per 100,000 hours for the fleet of 3600 airplanes flying 2.1 million hours since certified
One aspect of this downturn is the bad weather in the fall and winter. Tim Giesler had a flash of insight and created this visualization of the impact of flying in different seasons:
The 3-dimensional bar chart shows the effect of separating accidents and flight hours by quarter of the year, with more recent years near the front. Generally, good weather is April to September (quarters 2 and 3) and not-so-good weather is from October to March (quarters 4 and 1). This cumulative trend, taking all of the past accidents and flight hours when broken down equally by quarter, shows that there are distinctly different rates of accidents in good weather months than bad weather months. The summer rate is about 0.85 and the winter rate is about 2.00 accidents per 100,000 hours.
Q3 has a distinct valley because of very few accidents, and Q2 is recovering nicely from some early accidents as shown by the steep downward slope. In contrast, Q4 shows a persistent trend of more accidents in October, November and December, the quarter with the highest number of accidents. Maybe it suggests that Cirrus pilots have trouble adjusting to lower visibility, poorer weather conditions, and to earlier darkness.
Of course, what about adjusting the number flight hours for each quarter?
If you reduce the flight hours in the bad weather months by just 12%, then the fatal accident rate is about 3 times higher in October to March than April to September!!
The accident tables since birth. In 90% of these, it was the pilot, and you notice a lot of FIKI accidents. Plastic planes don't like flight into ice anymore then their metal ones.
0 Duluth, MN 23-Mar-1999 Experimental test-flight accident, not included in Cirrus production fatal accidents counts, occurred during pre-production flight testing when aileron jammed. SR20 prototype was not equipped with a CAPS parachute. Test pilot Scott Anderson is memorialized by the ANDOE waypoint for the outer marker on the ILS runway 27 approach to Duluth.
1 Sierra Vista, AZ 10-Apr-2001 Non-instrument rated pilot departed with old weather information over mountainous terrain in deteriorating weather, including mountain obscuration and icing.
2 Parish, NY 24-Apr-2002 Two experienced pilots who had just picked up their new Cirrus SR22 were practicing aggressive maneuvers when the plane entered a flat spin. Failure to deploy the parachute resulted in impact with terrain.
3 Angel Fire, NM 28-May-2002 Plane impacted terrain near top of ridge during departure under high-density altitude conditions in an SR20. The POH does not have takeoff distances for those conditions.
4 Las Vegas, NM 3-Nov-2002 Non-instrument rated pilot travelled long distances across country and impacted rising terrain under lowering cloud layer. Altimeter read 1,000 feet above elevation of impact point.
5 Hill City, MN 18-Jan-2003 Early morning night flight before sunrise under an overcast by non-instrument rated pilot. Low altitude flight over rising terrain.
6 San Jose, CA 23-Jan-2003 Plane impacted terrain during approach to Reid-Hillview airport in IMC by newly certifcated instrument-rated pilot with some ATC confusion with intended destination contributed to pilot workload.
7 Pamplona, Spain 12-Oct-2003 Plane collided with trees and ground in the mountains near Pamplona, Spain, while flying under a VFR flight plan. Last radio contact was at 1,500 feet.
8 Greenwood, SC 19-Apr-2004 Plane impacted terrain during takeoff by SR20 over gross weight without lowering flaps.
9 Park Falls, WI 10-Sep-2004 Plane impacted river 1,000 feet short of runway during instructional flight, which may have included simulated emergency power-off descent during gusty wind conditions.
10 Belgrade, MT 4-Dec-2004 Plane impacted trees while maneuvering close to mountain ridge during a photo mission with a glider.
11 Coconut Creek, FL 15-Jan-2005 Pilot experienced confusion and disorientation during an IMC departure, reporting avionics problems to ATC, but also following instructions intended for another airplane.
12 Hood River, OR 20-Jan-2005 Plane impacted terrain during short night VFR trip in lowering weather conditions by instructor-rated pilot returning to home field.
13 Norden, CA 6-Feb-2005 Pilot reported icing at night over mountains at 16,000 feet, attempted to climb but began accelerated descent; parachute was deployed at very high speed and separated from the airframe.
14 Arco, MN 11-Dec-2005 Plane impacted terrain during VFR flight in area where IMC and marginal VMC conditions prevailed. Parachute activation was due to ground impact.
15 Sylva NC 29-Dec-2005 Plane impacted terrain during departure from uncontrolled airport in marginal VFR conditions with intent to pick-up IFR clearance enroute.
16 Lancaster, CA 10-Jan-2006 Plane impacted terrain while student pilot and instructor were practicing return-to-airport maneuver.
17 Stuart, FL 4-Feb-2006 Plane impacted ocean during an IMC positioning flight with pilot reporting instrument problems and requesting return to airport.
18 Edgewater, MD 11-Jul-2006 Plane impacted terrain during go-around after attempted landing on short 2,500 foot runway.
19 Indianapolis, IN 28-Aug-2006 Passenger activated CAPS after pilot became incapacitated resulting in a high-speed impact into a shallow pond; witness reported seeing parachute in reefed condition; three passengers required back surgery and pilot suffered fatal trauma.
20 Maybell, CO 15-Sep-2006 Pilot reported icing at 14,000 feet, made several altitude changes, when ATC lost contact; plane impacted terrain at 7,100 feet and a portion of fuselage was dragged by parachute for 2 miles across Colorado/Wyoming border; parachute believed to have been deployed by impact forces.
21 Manhattan, NY 11-Oct-2006 Cory Lidle and CFI Tyler Stanger impacted an apartment building in Manhattan, NY, while flying VFR in the Hudson River corridor.
22 Meadview, AZ 25-Oct-2006 Pilot reported icing at 13,000 feet and impacted terrain in flat attitude; parachute was deployed by impact forces.
23 Statesville NC 27-Oct-2006 Plane impacted terrain following go-around after ILS approach in IMC conditions.
24 Huntersville, NC 30-Nov-2006 Plane impacted terrain during night/IMC instrument approach where the instrument rated pilot made several erratic maneuvers failing to turn to the approach, descending below descent path, changed airspeed and heading.
25 Young, AZ 17-Dec-2006 Plane impacted terrain while flying VFR in mountainous terrain in dusk/night conditions with IMC conditions and freezing level of 6,500 feet in the area.
26 Greenland 2-Feb-2007 Ferry pilot reported loss of oil pressure and maneuvered towards island in vicinty of Greenland, ditched the airplane, but was found dead in water with broken leg.
