Global recession?!

[SteveBailey]

Dunno about wheat, but if you look at the numbers for gold, it's very bouncy. I believe it's only a 4% return over the last 50 years. You'd probably get better performance out of a mutual fund that has/had a small portion of Bear Stearns in its holdings, rather than abandoning it for a precious metal (tin scare anybody?). Just my 2 pennies.

keep your pennies.  What gold has done in the last 50 years has nothing to do with me.  You might want to check what it's done in the last two years as that is how long I've been in... that will tell you whether or not I did the right thing. So no, I wouldn't have done better with the mutual fund you are suggesting.  

When the markets rebound and are less volatile, I'll move the money again as this will be about the same time gold slows down or even flattens.

[Gixer]

This is not your typical recession.   It is going to be far worse than anything the USA has experienced since WWII.

The government should have regulated these businesses more closely.

We are seeing more and more things take place that have not happened since the Great Depression.  These are all extremely bad signs.


_____________________________ ________________________

Exactly it's up to the government to regulate, banks/finance are like any other business they are going to lend under the rules set by the Fed, it is up to the government with the Federal/Reserve bank to set monetary policy. If they say to banks they can use Shares as security they are going to do it. Any blame for recession falls on the government.


<S>...-Gixer

[SteveBailey]

 Any blame for recession falls on the government.


<S>...-Gixer

This is utterly incorrect.  Certainly the govt can and has exacerbated recessions but they are not responsible for the cyclical nature of a capitalist economy.

[Gixer]

Dunno about wheat, but if you look at the numbers for gold, it's very bouncy. I believe it's only a 4% return over the last 50 years.

4% where did you get that figure from? Was it calculated to about 2002,2003? As then gold was around $200 to $300 an ounce (going from memory) now it's over $1,000 an ounce, gold is a great indicator of peoples confidence. Great time to be selling metal detectors.


<S>...-Gixer

[SteveBailey]

4% where did you get that figure from? Was it calculated to about 2002,2003? As then gold was around $200 to $300 an ounce (going from memory) now it's over $1,000 an ounce, gold is a great indicator of peoples confidence. Great time to be selling metal detectors.


<S>...-Gixer

Good call.   

[Gixer]

This is utterly incorrect.  Certainly the govt can and has exacerbated recessions but they are not responsible for the cyclical nature of a capitalist economy.

Cyclical nature of a capitalist economy? Since when was it within cycles to bail out a bank with tax payers money? I can't recall, 70 years ago? The depression? Far outside any normal cycles.

I wouldn't go as far to say U.S is headed for a great depression, but it is a recession and far outside any normal cycles. The entire U.S financial structure is a chain, once one major bank goes under the rest will eventually follow. The Fed didn't put money into Bear Stearns to save it as a company, they couldn't care less about Bear Stearns. They did it to save the financial chain. I would guess they probably weighed up strongly whether to stay out of it and see if the financial chain could ride it out, but end of the day they were too scared to find out. Hence the bail out.

At a heavy price though, doing so weakens the U.S economy even further dollar value,markets,etc.. I doubt they will be able to repeat that process again for another big bank. Politcally it looks bad as you are seen to bail out Wall Street but not Joe Blogs with his mortgage.


<S>...-Gixer

[Gixer]

This is utterly incorrect.  Certainly the govt can and has exacerbated recessions but they are not responsible for the cyclical nature of a capitalist economy.

By the way I was going with the cyclic nature and rough patch for the markets theory as well. Right until they did that injection of billions into the market a few weeks back. Then you know it's outside normal cycles, and again bailing out a major bank is another nasty indicator of bandaid monetary policy.


<S>...-Gixer

[indy007]

4% where did you get that figure from? Was it calculated to about 2002,2003? As then gold was around $200 to $300 an ounce (going from memory) now it's over $1,000 an ounce, gold is a great indicator of peoples confidence. Great time to be selling metal detectors.


<S>...-Gixer

Should be up to a pretty recent date, but I can't remember off-hand. I'll have to dig the source back out. I'll freely admit I'm biased against anything short-term (I'm 27, all the time in the world). Too many spazzes running around yelling the sky is falling, and it just never works out that way since you can't quantify human ingenuity. Tin is a good historical example of why. It's like freaking out about oil prices... great for now, but it won't last, and unless you time getting out well enough, it's just a waste of effort.

[Gixer]

It's like freaking out about oil prices... great for now, but it won't last, and unless you time getting out well enough, it's just a waste of effort.

It won't last? Well unless demand drops off dramatically (global depression) or someone discovers a new miracle supply of cheap fuel I'm affraid it only has one direction to go and that's up. Then again ironically to this thread the fall in U.S economy and lower U.S dollar has helped over past months to keep it under $100 a barrel but even that barrier is now broken.


<S>...-Gixer

[john9001]

the Bear Stearns employees are not unemployed.   They were sent a msg telling them to report to work as usual, they would now be employees of JP Morgan Chase.

[myelo]

Most of Bear's employees are expected to lose their job as the firm is restructured. Also, about 1/3 of the company's shares is owned by employees

[Ripsnort]

Just what percentage of jobs in total outside of the U.S are from American companies? Would hate to guess, under 10%? For an example company I work for is U.S based. Totaly employees around 40,000 number outside of the U.S probably around 4,000 where is it going to hurt more if it collapses? Me, if they said I was fired I know I could walk into another job the same day.

U.S isn't the worlds number on economy anymore, it's Europe and I wouldn't think Asia was that far behind. So there are plenty of companies other economies outside U.S to keep the world ticking over.

I just don't believe in this sneeze, world gets a cough. Maybe in years past after the war but not now.


<S>...-Gixer

Well, you might want to pass your carefree attitude onto the Chinese Premier because he understands world economics and how they are woven together like a rug alittle bit better than you.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/18/content_7813673.htm

[bj229r]

Bear Stearns wasn't "bailed out". The company which was worth $160 a share 1 year ago was bought out for $2 a share, and no longer exists. We only guaranteed the money for the investors via J P Morgan---everyone who had anything to do with running Bear Stearns, including their stockholders, are fediddleed. And we only did THIS to forgo millions of people getting scared and yanking their money out of their respective banks

<their big no-no was having 15 cents per owed-dollar on hand in liquid cash---most investment firms have 35+ cents per dollar---when the endless short-term loans which they used to finance their LONG term loans to customers dried up, they ceased to exist>

[Shamus]

Golly..Curval is being mighty generous 

I do notice that retorts about pink shorts and scooters are somewhat lacking tho

shamus   

[Bodhi]

Bear Stearns wasn't "bailed out". The company which was worth $160 a share 1 year ago was bought out for $2 a share, and no longer exists. We only guaranteed the money for the investors via J P Morgan---everyone who had anything to do with running Bear Stearns, including their stockholders, are fediddleed. And we only did THIS to forgo millions of people getting scared and yanking their money out of their respective banks

I call BS.  US Government cash is going to guarantee the investors investment.  They should have had a more keen interest into what their money is doing. 

Where was their guarantee when I invested in Delta, and it tanked? 
Where was their guarantee when people invested in other investments and they tanked.

This is just guaranteeing rich peoples money...  which is a crock of crap.