pretty sure the F3 only has HARM for ground attack, but as you say shifty attack subs would make it almost impossible to get a fleet anywhere near the islands. turns out there are only 4 Tornados based there

still going to be pretty effective against Skyhawks and Etendards though, and i'm guessing there are also
alot of rapier SAMs dotted around.
as for US involvement, I think treaties prevent direct assistance against South American countries, so like last time the US would be obliged to try to prevent the conflict. as I recall US help last time amounted to rushing through an existing order for new sidewinders.