Author Topic: Iranian discontent  (Read 1056 times)

Offline lasersailor184

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2008, 02:34:00 PM »
Well said.
That was my point. Force opec to lower prices through increased domestic production, even if it means nationalizing our domestic resources. Nationalizing would work if it was structured and managed properly, much like our railroad system. If the price drops down to a nonfeasible extraction level, then we have accomplished what we set out to do. If the price remains high, then at least our dollars are staying in the USA instead of in our enemies bank accounts. We also increase jobs in OUR country.
It is not just OPEC, but our greedy US oil companies contributing to this problem. We cannot allow private oil companies (record profits every year) to dictate our oil prices, as this is a matter of national security, not capitalism.

What if this has ANY credence:
http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/local/story.html?id=5f07f6b9-815f-4058-9e25-17fb0c61cd61


And most importantly we need to reduce our fossil fuel dependence.

Communism never works.  It has never worked in the history of all mankind.  Why do you people keep thinking that this time will be different?
Punishr - N.D.M. Back in the air.
8.) Lasersailor 73 "Will lead the impending revolution from his keyboard"

Offline C(Sea)Bass

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2008, 02:36:59 PM »
I paid 3.06 this morning for 85 octane.  They only sell 85, 87, and 91 around here.
In Rhode Island a few station are at $4+. The worst I have heard of was at $4.22 for regular.

Offline Charon

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2008, 02:47:49 PM »
As for the Bakken formation link posted. We covered that a couple of weeks ago. Of the recoverable oil, the extraction cost is estimated to be $20 -$40. I have yet to see a breakout on how much is at $20 and how much is at $40, and this is using the latest breakthrough technologies.

But, I have no doubt there are investment opportunities available. Get in on the ground floor (just make sure the next stop isn't the basement).

Charon

Offline WWhiskey

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2008, 02:59:11 PM »
Communism never works.  It has never worked in the history of all mankind.  Why do you people keep thinking that this time will be different?
i hope that you didnt misunderstand me, i was not talking about nationalizing, i was talking about easing the ristrictions on production and refinery building, to show that we are willing to pump and refine our own fuel,
 in order to drive the price down(supply and demand type of thing)  i am not for nationalizing anything however if worst comes to worst i do think pulling our crude off the world market might not be a bad thing!
Flying since tour 71.

Offline 68valu

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2008, 03:08:34 PM »
Your point doesn't make economic sense when our resources cost $40+ to produce. As for the railroads, those are private with the one exception -- Amtrack -- being hardly a success story. Let's face it. Communism is a failure.

As for the Greedy Oil<tm> companies -- just why weren't they greedy during the 1990s? Why did they push the price of crude down to $10 bbl? Under your model US drivers would have paid twice as much for
gasoline, if not more, during the 1990s.

Charon

but the difference is that the money that it takes to produce it is staying HERE, and is being recirculated HERE, not being used to arm and equip our enemies. (Iran, Libya, Venezuala  all major OPEC suppliers) If the global price drops and means it is more economical to purchase it on the free market then that is what will be done. Our current private US oil companies can still offer their products side by side with our national domestic producer if they are competitive.
The railroads in the USA are not strictly private, as you imply but rather are regulated by the US government as to fees they are able to charge in exchange for having no competitors, as it would be counterproductive and not cost efficient to lay duplicate track. This could be done in this scenario as well. I do not consider that communism as you do.
I don't really care what the oil companies did in the 90's because they are more than making up for it now. $123 Billion in PROFITS in 2007 (yes thats with a B). now I understand that is their right as private companies but I also understand collusion and monopoly as well.
http://priceofoil.org/2008/04/02/big-oil%e2%80%99s-biggest-joke/
Flying since tour 84

Offline Charon

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2008, 03:43:45 PM »
Quote
but the difference is that the money that it takes to produce it is staying HERE, and is being recirculated HERE, not being used to arm and equip our enemies. (Iran, Libya, Venezuala  all major OPEC suppliers) If the global price drops and means it is more economical to purchase it on the free market then that is what will be done.

Guess what. That's the way it already works. Under your plan, when it is cheaper -- much cheaper for a decade or so -- we are stuck paying for $40-$50 bbl oil. Now, frankly, that's the same way the socialist govts. in Europe use taxes to curb demand. Sell $4 gallon gas, 85 percent being taxes and you cut demand and less money flows overseas and you use the money to support social programs. Everone drives a Smart car. Frankly that's a better model than yours since the extra money would be eaten up by the more expensive production costs.

You assume $100 bbl oil, or even $60 is going to be the way moving forward. If that were so there would be plenty of investment in the free market in these opportunities. But that is not the history of how the markets work. You may choose not to remember the past, and be free with our tax dollars and potentially harm our long term energy costs -- but that's your choice. You can feel free to take every penny you own and invest in any of these alternative energy schemes.

Quote
The railroads in the USA are not strictly private, as you imply but rather are regulated by the US government as to fees they are able to charge in exchange for having no competitors, as it would be counterproductive and not cost efficient to lay duplicate track. This could be done in this scenario as well. I do not consider that communism as you do.

So as you point out, they are not run by the Govt. but face some Govt. regulation just like most heavy industries and have to actually earn a profit independent of the other haulers and have to answer to investors. However, your scheme would imply a Venezuelan-style nationalized oil system that works best (with many burdens) when: a. you have enough reserves to cover domestic needs comfortably. b. Those reserves come at an extraction cost comparable to the world market. Ours fails both of those tests. Of course the Venezuelan experience is going to be a long term disaster, but much of that will be related to Chavez’s broader Marxist agenda. However, the rest of the world has moved rapidly away from national oil companies (except for countries like the Saudi’s where the advantages are overwhelming)

In fact, if we nationalized our oil production using these non-competitive resources we would lock ourselves into $2 plus gas while the rest of the world would be trying to give gasoline away during the same time (given the removal of US demand from the global demand pool). Wouldn't it be great to be paying $2.50 per gallon while the rest of the world paid $0.75??

Quote
but I also understand collusion and monopoly as well.

You must understand it better than the FTC. There have taken a close look at the oil industry (several I believe) in recent years, and no smoke or fire. Just simple economic forces at work. BTW, for the second time, why did these all powerful colluders "decide" to barely turn a profit for much of the 1990s? Since they have the magic power to manipulate the global commodities markets, why just wait until demand jumped in China and India, 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq with threats against Iran, Katrina with devastating impact on us off shore terminaling and refining and at the same time production lagged to secretly manipulate the markets into driving up the price of oil?



« Last Edit: April 07, 2008, 03:58:28 PM by Charon »

Offline lasersailor184

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2008, 03:43:54 PM »
i hope that you didnt misunderstand me, i was not talking about nationalizing, i was talking about easing the ristrictions on production and refinery building, to show that we are willing to pump and refine our own fuel,
 in order to drive the price down(supply and demand type of thing)  i am not for nationalizing anything however if worst comes to worst i do think pulling our crude off the world market might not be a bad thing!

I was quoting and insulting Valu.  I think all restrictions should be razed.
Punishr - N.D.M. Back in the air.
8.) Lasersailor 73 "Will lead the impending revolution from his keyboard"

Offline 68valu

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2008, 06:11:05 PM »
Guess what. That's the way it already works. Under your plan, when it is cheaper -- much cheaper for a decade or so -- we are stuck paying for $40-$50 bbl oil. Now, frankly, that's the same way the socialist govts. in Europe use taxes to curb demand. Sell $4 gallon gas, 85 percent being taxes and you cut demand and less money flows overseas and you use the money to support social programs. Everone drives a Smart car. Frankly that's a better model than yours since the extra money would be eaten up by the more expensive production costs.

You assume $100 bbl oil, or even $60 is going to be the way moving forward. If that were so there would be plenty of investment in the free market in these opportunities. But that is not the history of how the markets work. You may choose not to remember the past, and be free with our tax dollars and potentially harm our long term energy costs -- but that's your choice. You can feel free to take every penny you own and invest in any of these alternative energy schemes.

So as you point out, they are not run by the Govt. but face some Govt. regulation just like most heavy industries and have to actually earn a profit independent of the other haulers and have to answer to investors. However, your scheme would imply a Venezuelan-style nationalized oil system that works best (with many burdens) when: a. you have enough reserves to cover domestic needs comfortably. b. Those reserves come at an extraction cost comparable to the world market. Ours fails both of those tests. Of course the Venezuelan experience is going to be a long term disaster, but much of that will be related to Chavez’s broader Marxist agenda. However, the rest of the world has moved rapidly away from national oil companies (except for countries like the Saudi’s where the advantages are overwhelming)

In fact, if we nationalized our oil production using these non-competitive resources we would lock ourselves into $2 plus gas while the rest of the world would be trying to give gasoline away during the same time (given the removal of US demand from the global demand pool). Wouldn't it be great to be paying $2.50 per gallon while the rest of the world paid $0.75??

You must understand it better than the FTC. There have taken a close look at the oil industry (several I believe) in recent years, and no smoke or fire. Just simple economic forces at work. BTW, for the second time, why did these all powerful colluders "decide" to barely turn a profit for much of the 1990s? Since they have the magic power to manipulate the global commodities markets, why just wait until demand jumped in China and India, 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq with threats against Iran, Katrina with devastating impact on us off shore terminaling and refining and at the same time production lagged to secretly manipulate the markets into driving up the price of oil?





The railroads are unique in how the government regulates them. The fees they can charge are within strict guidelines and their emloyees are in a totally different and unique retirement system. They are not eligible for SSI. Does that make them communists?  Or the system a COMMUNIST REGIME?

I am still not as comfortable as you are with financing our enemies war against us.
Calling me a communist is a cheap shot and designed to gain favor from fellow o'club members. I am a US Army veteran and would die to defend our way of life. Nothing I have stated is communist in any way, but using the "C" word would certainly get less
educated people on your side. (lasersailer184)
I think you are suffering from McCarthyism

You are still missing the point that the increased production costs would remain here. Do you think that dollars are just poured in the wells until the oil rises to the top under the money. No, the increased costs are WAGES kept here and respent here, equipment manufactured and paid for HERE, and a constant stream of suppliers working HERE. Not going to our enemies and non allies.

unlike you, if given the choice, I would choose not to pay our KNOWN enemies regardless of the cost as the cost in the future may be FAR greater than any monetary amount.
Flying since tour 84

Offline Masherbrum

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2008, 07:46:33 PM »
i was pretty sure we had 118.15 years of resources according too my calc. but yes, they will not want us to produce anymore than we do now, so as to keep there income and power! what we must do is show them we are willing to produce, so that they will make it harder for us to do so ,I.E. cut the price of there oil to keep us from wanting to pump more of our own!
also if we keep trying to find new ways to transport goods, and each other, in 118 years we may not be very dependant on oil whatsoever!
LMFAO!!!!!! Keep thinking that.   Within 30-35 years, you'll be in tears.    118?   ROTFLMMFAO!!!!!   
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Offline Charon

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #24 on: April 07, 2008, 07:56:24 PM »

Quote
The railroads are unique in how the government regulates them. The fees they can charge are within strict guidelines and their emloyees are in a totally different and unique retirement system. They are not eligible for SSI. Does that make them communists?  Or the system a COMMUNIST REGIME?

I think you overestimate the level of regulation by a considerable degree. Amtrack is the only nationalized rail operation it has and it suffers from the curse of subsidized operations and inefficiency just like the centrally operated business under the former Soviet Union.

Quote
By the mid-1990s, the ICC retained only limited regulatory authority. Under the ICC Termination Act of 1995, the commission was abolished at the end of the year. Some of its remaining responsibilities, including the power to set minimum rates and to pass on discontinuance of passenger train service, were eliminated entirely. Others, including the right to regulate rail mergers and rate discrimination, were assigned to the newly established Surface Transportation Board of the DOT.

Quote
I am still not as comfortable as you are with financing our enemies war against us.
Calling me a communist is a cheap shot and designed to gain favor from fellow o'club members. I am a US Army veteran and would die to defend our way of life. Nothing I have stated is communist in any way, but using the "C" word would certainly get less
educated people on your side. (lasersailer184)
I think you are suffering from McCarthyism

I'm not comfortable either with financing our enemies. But, the global oil market is what it is. And it operates the way it does, and OPEC has the power that it has (with definite free market limits) because it is cheaper for the American driver to take part in this market. We mainly have expensive oil left. They don't. We consume more oil than the next 4 countries below us combined. We can have the biggest bang for the buck by reducing demand. But, that would mean major changes to the American lifestyle. Most don't want to make those changes or you wouldn't see an SUV on the road, we would be dramatically expanding public transportation and encouraging telecommuting and doing a lot of fairly fundamental life changing things.

And, the last time I checked there was no MOS for economist in the Army. Your patriotism has nothing to do with economic realities. Your proposals are at best socialist, at worst communist and in either case are detrimental to our long term energy security and economy. In fact, pulling out  of the world oil market and subsidizing unprofitable oil reserves are a lot closer to communism than socialism at this point in time. When the Saudis do it it makes sense. It's not communism or socialism for them since they hold such an abundant surplus of raw materials and have virtually nothing else to base their economy on. The countries that have had nationalized oil industries with more limited reserves have moved away from them ASAP in the 1990s except for those, like Saudi Arabia, where it makes a lot of sense (abundant cheap oil far beyond local demand).

If most of the difference between $5 bbl oil and $40 a bbl oil was labor, then you would be promoting a make work subsidy at the expense of American drivers (kinda socialist and in fact a cornerstone of many communist work programs in the USSR). If most of the cost involves things like energy (tar sands, for example) then in fact, you are spending a lot of money with nothing added in return. I was at a conference a few months back where a team from Imperial Oil in Canada provided an update on their efforts with Tar sands. The energy costs are so high they are considering local nuclear power to aid in processing (but, a lot of up front capital costs for that). Tar sands make sense at $50 or so.

Securing a supply of $40 to $50 or $50 bbl oil NOW only makes sense if we are never going back to cheaper prices. I'm not calling you a communist, or looking to insult you, but what you are proposing is in fact at best socialist. It is what it is. And, we already go there with Biofuels for much the same purpose and much the same "benefit." One thing to note is that investment is still soft in alternative energy even at $100 a bbl oil. Why? Because a lot of others are still wary we are here to stay at prices above $40. I though we might have crossed that threshold, but I have changed my mind. No one knows for sure, but a production cost of $10 is a real counter point to how far above that it can be sustained.

What type of car do you drive? If you really want to stick it to the man (at home or abroad) that's where to start. If you just want cheap gas for your full sized truck then nobody can help you there for 4-8 years.

Charon

Offline 68valu

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #25 on: April 07, 2008, 09:33:56 PM »
Charon,
I do appreciate your input and comments and your numbers seem accurate, but I am not comfortable with financing the enemy, when it will definately come back to haunt us. (IT ALREADY IS) That is from my military training. I never said I was an economist. 91B1S - you figure it out if you like.

All I seem to get for alternatives to what I suggest are:
1. DO NOTHING opec and the oil companies will take care of us.BURY OUR HEADS    IN THE SAND

2. reduce consumption. At least that is possible, but I fear that the prices will not  reflect the lower demand and will be based on how much can be extracted from us instead of fair market value, as they just reduce output to keep prices inflated. Thats what happens in a "NO COMPITITION" environment. Thats whats going on now.

Do you have an alternative to the status quo, or are you content with our situation?

ANYONE?


I drive a tiny 4 cylinder pickup. Dont have off road vehicles or a boat, and commute
when possible.
Flying since tour 84

Offline Charon

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #26 on: April 07, 2008, 10:27:17 PM »
Quote
Do you have an alternative to the status quo, or are you content with our situation?

The problem is there is no real option. No simple answers, no easy solutions.

Biofuels using current technology are not that viable without subsidies, and even with the hoped for breakthroughs will only make a small percentage reduction long term. Perhaps 3 percent of liquid fuel globally and maybe 10 percent or so with US motor fuels (but again supported by our tax dollars to some extent that grows as oil prices drop and that also impacts our food prices (likely to a greater extend because of speculation than true impact).

Oil sands and the Bakken formation etc. are good long term reserves, but only once the cheap oil starts to dry up. We even shut down wells domestically that are in production (but relatively expensive) when the price drops like it did in the 1990s with hydrologic issues that make it difficult to restart them. In fact, one counter to ANWR is that if we did develop it it might offset, to some extent, more expensive domestic production that would be brought off line.

Consumption is about all we can do, and a little bit will go a long way where the market speculation is concerned. But, we actually have to go far beyond even driving more efficient vehicles to get a real impact. Real cultural changing types of things.

Unfortunately, we have to give our money to people who are potentially our enemies. IMO I see the same thing with our relationship with China. Fortunately China still is a communist country with state controlled business and industry that cannot take full advantage of the boost. We (or at least Taiwan) has to hope they are as dependent on us as we have become on them. In the Middle East the Saudi's are manageable unless they get an Ayatollah one of these days. The Iranians are a PITA but they have their own worries as well. Iraq is a flip of the coin Kuwait etc. are fine. The oil princes need us as long as we don't encourage the religious fundamentalists. The silver lining is that we should see an oil glut and prices drop. If we have a real recession then it may be an ugly way to get back to $2 a gallon gas or maybe less. Also, the peak oil theory is a bit weak. So, it's just one of those things. Many countries have something sticking it to them. China has energy and water to deal with.




Offline ROC

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #27 on: April 07, 2008, 11:38:45 PM »
Charon, there are times that I really enjoy reading your thoughts.
ROC
Nothing clever here.  Please, move along.

Offline WWhiskey

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #28 on: April 08, 2008, 05:34:13 AM »
LMFAO!!!!!! Keep thinking that.   Within 30-35 years, you'll be in tears.    118?   ROTFLMMFAO!!!!!   
yea thats what they said 50 years ago,, o and we would all be flying around in personal aircraft instead of driving!
and none of us would have too work anymore cause the robots would do it all! take you'r doomsday crap somewhere else! there is more than 500billion barrels of oil that has been discovered on this continent since those estimates were made, as well as alternative oil reclamation that will take atleast that long to perfect, at which time we will start to press mine for oil (bet you never heard of that )
Flying since tour 71.

Offline C(Sea)Bass

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #29 on: April 08, 2008, 06:40:24 AM »
LMFAO!!!!!! Keep thinking that.   Within 30-35 years, you'll be in tears.    118?   ROTFLMMFAO!!!!!   

I ran the numbers in a statitistics program. If oil consumption remained at its current level we would use all known oil sources up in 71.4 years, However oil consumption does not remain level. As resources become lower, prices go up, and consequently consumption goes down. Inserting a basic function of that into the model we have about 800 years left, but in 80-100 years from now the only viable uses for oil will be for making critical plastics, like those used in medical supplies.