Syrian Nukes

[SD67]

no oil = eventual logistical collapse = production and distribution issues = shortage of food

[Lumpy]

No oil from the middle east ...

Not a problem where I live. We are self sufficient in oil, and food for that matter (would have to eat a lot of fish though). We actually export both.

[Toad]

By the way even after a thermo nuclear blast, with a few dust sized particals of radioactive material, you CAN determine exactly where the nuclear marterial came from.

IIRC, you have to have samples to match the particles with the source. That is, you will have to have previous samples from the Syrian reactor on file to perform a match that would show it came from the Syrian reactor.

This article lays it out pretty well.  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080216142207.htm

Pay attention to the parts that say things like:

Using radiochemistry techniques and access to proposed international databases that include actual samples of uranium and plutonium from around the world,

and

Convincing the nuclear states to share database information about their own uranium and plutonium may be difficult, May said.

[AWMac]

Mmmm... okay...

Let the goverment hold the blinds over your eyes.

We knew the North Koreans were doing this crap in the late '80s.

To let this be NEW news just shows....

Yer sheep.

All together now... "Baaaaaaaaa..."

Mac

[vorticon]

no oil = eventual logistical collapse = production and distribution issues = shortage of food

north america has enough oil (conventional and non-conventional ) to provide for ourselves for over 30 years, at around $50 a barrel. with south american and potentially massive offshore sources in the arctic...

[FrodeMk3]

north america has enough oil (conventional and non-conventional ) to provide for ourselves for over 30 years, at around $50 a barrel. with south american and potentially massive offshore sources in the arctic...

But they have enough fanatacism to last centuries...

[Dowding]

IIRC, you have to have samples to match the particles with the source.

From what I remember, it's more about where the Uranium came from in the first place. Reactor samples would be the easiest way, but traditional detective work from the orgin of the Uranium would fill in the missing pieces.

Tracing bomb material to its source may be only the beginning of an investigation, rather than the end, as the authors acknowledge. Discovering that a terrorist explosive was made of uranium stolen from a specific site in Russia, for example, does not identify the terrorists, but it does provide a starting point, especially if there is suspicion that the bomb makers had inside help.

If you have the origin, you have a lead. And I'm sure after a post-Nuclear event the US or Britain or Russia would throw everything at establishing the trail to weaponisation. I'm also 100% sure that every help would be given to them to avoid incrimination. If, let's say, the trail lead to Syria or Iran, I think they wouldn't like to hinder the investigation. Anything other than complete and transparent cooperation would be causus belli in the eyes of the world.

The article makes the case for more resources for nuclear forensics. I'm surprised that this is an issue in the current climate.

[Rich46yo]

north america has enough oil (conventional and non-conventional ) to provide for ourselves for over 30 years, at around $50 a barrel. with south american and potentially massive offshore sources in the arctic...

Yeah sure, if we all started car pooling in mini-coopers and cleaned out the horse barn. Cause everytime I fill up my full size pickup I feel like washing down 15 Prozacs with a thorazine milkshake.

[Lumpy]

As you should!

[Mini D]

They point of "why shouldn't they be allowed to have them?" is answered by the Syrians who still insist Isreal bombed an empty building.

[Masherbrum]

Let me ask it another way.
What do you think the result of Syria becoming nuclear would be?

Enlighten me.

Rip, you realize you are dealing with GSholz's shade account yet again, right?

[Toad]

From what I remember, it's more about where the Uranium came from in the first place. Reactor samples would be the easiest way, but traditional detective work from the orgin of the Uranium would fill in the missing pieces.

Take a plausible chain based on today's headlines. The NK's help the Syrians build weapons that then somehow work their way into the hands of Hamas.

NYC gets vaporized.

Do we have samples of NK enriched nuclear products? Where did the NK's get their feedstocks, Russia? (I don't know). Will we have markers that would identify the weapon as something the Syrians enhanced/purified from NK stocks?

Hamas sets it off and all we can conclude is that it is NK in origin and we strike NK, then Hamas laughs it rear off, right?

There's no way that a nuclear signature will unfailingly point  you to the actual culprit.

[FrodeMk3]

Take a plausible chain based on today's headlines. The NK's help the Syrians build weapons that then somehow work their way into the hands of Hamas.

NYC gets vaporized.

Do we have samples of NK enriched nuclear products? Where did the NK's get their feedstocks, Russia? (I don't know). Will we have markers that would identify the weapon as something the Syrians enhanced/purified from NK stocks?

Hamas sets it off and all we can conclude is that it is NK in origin and we strike NK, then Hamas laughs it rear off, right?

There's no way that a nuclear signature will unfailingly point  you to the actual culprit.

Good point, Toad. Although, it seems' to me that Hamas is more centralized on fighting Isreal, I'd bank on any Hamas Bomb going off in Tel Aviv...Also, what if the bomb merely passes through Hamas' hands, and goes to someone else? Like Al-Queada? That might make tracing the bomb's origins' even harder, wouldn't it? At least enough to delay any investigation. I'd think that Physicists' might find out where the Uranium came from BEFORE we knew who set it off. Unless, of course, as had previously been stated, the isotopes' from the parent reactor were not catalogued before detonation. I wonder how long this whole process would take, anyway? Any guesses?

[Dowding]

There's no way that a nuclear signature will unfailingly point  you to the actual culprit.

I agree. The same way regular forensic evidence will never 'unfailingly' point you to the actual culprit. You need to do the detective work in conjuction with the forensics to get the result.

[FrodeMk3]

I agree. The same way regular forensic evidence will never 'unfailingly' point you to the actual culprit. You need to do the detective work in conjuction with the forensics to get the result.

The scariest thing about the whole scenario. For example, you get a trace of what may be material that could link back to the bomb's parent reactor. However, you run said material through your analysis, and you can't turn up a match in known facility's. What then?

Or worse even, is traced back to a country that gave out material origanally for a peaceful purpose, but over time, it changed hands' more than once. Nuke the country that origanally had no bad intentions????