How to get things done: Car MPG as an example

[Toad]

You want to get things done? Appeal to the entrepreneurial spirit.

We've had literally decades to come up with fuel efficient cars from Detroit and around the world. Even the mighty Japanese auto industry stalls out around 40-50 mpg on internal combustion vehicles. You'd think with the various and continuing energy problems world wide, the free market would have been all over high mpg like a duck on a June bug. Nope, didn't really happen.

Government? Fugeddabowditt! Government regulation, suggestion, Corporate Average Fuel Economy rules... bah. The US industry stalls out in the mid 30 mpg range for the most part.

Nope, you want things done, you appeal to man's sense of a challenge and most of all his greed. How many of you are following the Automotive X Prize?

The goal of the Progressive Automotive X PRIZE is to inspire a new generation of viable, super fuel-efficient vehicles that offer more consumer choices. Ten million dollars in prizes will be awarded to the teams that win a stage race for clean, production-capable vehicles that exceed 100 MPGe.

Can't be done? Check out the early top 10 leaders in the race according to Popular Mechanics:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4261425.html?series=19

Good things will come of this. The down the road end result of this is a few major manufacturers putting variations of the top few designs into production. Will we suddenly get 100+ mpg vehicles on the market? Nope. But maybe 5 years down the road 40 mpg will be old hat and 70 mpg will be available to the average Joe Commuter.

Will these cars replace everything? No, we'll still need pickup trucks and station wagons but for a lot of people they will be a "right" choice, particularly in heavily urban environments.

I wonder if the oil producing Arab states contributed to the $10 million prize? 

Bottom line though is that if you want things DONE, forget about the government completely. Don't expect old, hidebound industrial management to even try to think outside the box; they can't see past their own golden parachute. Appeal to the visionaries and reward them for their efforts.

 

[Bones]

Nice words.  Means diddly squat in the real world though.

Progressive Insurance is putting up the prize money.  Why am I cynical?  Unless you already have the money to do something like this, you will not be able to even think about starting it up. 

You will not find investors who are willing to pony up the money unless they have a garantee on the return and a substantial say in its deployment. 

If you manage to find anyone to fund it, they will want to own it and leave you in the lurch. 

If you do not have the money to pay for a patent attorney, then do not bother trying to do something good for the world.

Sorry, but this is just more stroking for the sake of stroking each other.  Another, "feel good" attempt at distracting the world from its problems.  I have a very good reason to be cynical about this.

[Toad]

Did you read the PS blurbs on the cars? Private investors are already lining up for many of those cars mentioned. It wasn't only Progressive that put up prize money either.

For example:

So far Tesla has raised $105 million from investors

Gotta have money to even try? Nope, check out the West Philly Hybrid; a high school class has that one up and running. They're getting all the help they need from folks like Boeing and Drexel University

I'd also hazard a guess that any designs that finish in the top 5 will likely get buyout offers from various existing automobile companies. To win, you have to have a vehicle that can be produced and will work in a "real world" environment.

While it isn't terribly hard to build a vehicle that will propel itself 100 miles on only a gallon of gas, the X Prize rules call for a car that can carry four adults and sip gas while traversing all kinds of terrain and negotiating real-world traffic. And the car builder must demonstrate that the vehicle can be profitably offered for sale in volumes of 10,000 units in a form that meets federal crash safety and emissions requirements. If this weren't enough, the competition really is a race, because the money goes to the fastest car that can do all of these things.

"Achieving 100 mpg? Any bright engineer can go do that," declares Chris Theodore, vice chairman of ASC Inc., who advised the X Prize committee. "But with the rules of cost and safety and desirability and functionality, it becomes much more challenging. I'm not sure the public appreciates how difficult it is."

  http://www.xprize.org/news/automotive-x-prize-seeks-100-mpg-car

Good things will come from this competition. The least of which would be waking up the engineering departments of the major auto builders.

[Nashwan]

But maybe 5 years down the road 40 mpg will be old hat and 70 mpg will be available to the average Joe Commuter.

Already is in Europe. Volkswagen Polo Bluemotion, 57.6 mpg urban, 88.3 mpg extra urban, 74.3 mpg combined cycle.

The problem for manufacturers is that they have to make the cars people want to buy. Even in the UK, where fuel is taxed to over $8 per US gallon, the best selling cars are a class larger than the Polo.

I think the Automotive X Prize is a waste of time, frankly. Any team that came up with real advances would find the car manufacturers offering them far more than $10 million, and this is a field that already receives massive investment in research.

[Toad]

I think the business plan calls for the cars to be profitable at 10,000 units. Tesla has 1700 orders w/deposit so far.

I can see no negatives. It heightens awareness, provides options, may develop new technologies and they are not talking 75 mpg combined, they're talking 100+. The Philly highschool kids are looking at 130 mpg.

As I said, if the result is a wide range of choices from major makers like the Bluemotion, fine.

If it takes high priced gas, 10 million donated dollars and some inventive engineering to get the US to seriously address our nationwide poor mpg, I'm ok with it.

Think if 100 mpg becomes the common rating world wide. Can't hurt, can it?

[Nashwan]

Oh, I can't see any downside, the people who put up the prize money get publicity, as do the teams entering, and some niche cars might result. But I doubt they will have anything to teach the major manufacturers.

If you look at the best known of those teams, Tesla, they have a car already entering production. But is there anything the major car manufacturers can learn from it? It uses an electric motor from a major manufacturer, off the shelf batteries of the type used in laptops, in a car built by Lotus, who have been doing engineering jobs for major car manufacturers for decades. There's nothing new, just a niche design for a niche market.

Major manufacturers will bring out alternative powered vehicles when the market is ready for them. That's when fuel is far more expensive, and/or when the basic technology has advanced a lot more.

I just don't see these teams advancing the basic technology. Are any of them producing a radically new battery? New types of fuel cells? New ways of producing hydrogen? It seems to me they are all taking existing technologies and packaging them a bit differently.

[Bones]

Did you read the PS blurbs on the cars? Private investors are already lining up for many of those cars mentioned. It wasn't only Progressive that put up prize money either.

For example:

Gotta have money to even try? Nope, check out the West Philly Hybrid; a high school class has that one up and running. They're getting all the help they need from folks like Boeing and Drexel University

I'd also hazard a guess that any designs that finish in the top 5 will likely get buyout offers from various existing automobile companies. To win, you have to have a vehicle that can be produced and will work in a "real world" environment.
  http://www.xprize.org/news/automotive-x-prize-seeks-100-mpg-car

Good things will come from this competition. The least of which would be waking up the engineering departments of the major auto builders.

Yes, I have read all the blurbs about all the entries.  I have a design that would potentially win, but it will never happen.  Why?  Because I am a poor working slob who cannot afford to build it first, then ask for the money later.  I cannot afford to walk away from my job, with no income for the year, or so it would have taken to build it.  And I cannot ask the other nine or ten folks needed to finish it to do the same.

High schools get funding.

I have been all over this for a lot longer than most of those designs have been around.  I am too cynical and tired of having my hopes tossed into the garbage.  They can shove their worthless prize where the sun does not shine.  It's all a glamour show.

[Toad]

Maybe what they will teach the automotive giants is how to produce/package existing 100+ mpg technology into a popular, buildable, product that will sell well. 

[Toad]

  I have a design that would potentially win, but it will never happen. 

Well, if you are so sure, patent it. If you don't have the money for a patent, draw up a partnership and get some partners that do have enough.

Worst case, if you can't do anything with your idea because of your circumstances, give it away to someone that can do something with it. At least you'll be famous.

[Bones]

I do not have the money for a patent attorney and I do not know anyone who has that kind of money.  Us poor folks are not allowed to move in those circles.

I am too jaded to care anymore.  Fame was never part of the equation for me.  Money was.

I have often wondered how many geniuses have had to just ignore what they could do, simply due to lack or funding.  Yet, there are plenty of rich idiots around.

[Megalodon]

This car is already excepting orders for local folks. For short trips under 100 miles it gets around 300 miles to the gallon. On long trips it lowers to about 120 mpg. Made in Carlsbad CA.

Just hand the xprize over.

http://www.aptera.com/details.php

[Toad]

I do not have the money for a patent attorney and I do not know anyone who has that kind of money.  Us poor folks are not allowed to move in those circles.

I am too jaded to care anymore.  Fame was never part of the equation for me.  Money was.

So you're the one with THE ANSWER but you just don't care? Gotcha.

[Bones]

This car is already excepting orders for local folks. For short trips under 100 miles it gets around 300 miles to the gallon. On long trips it lowers to about 120 mpg. Made in Carlsbad CA.

Just hand the xprize over.

http://www.aptera.com/details.php

(Image removed from quote.)

That will not win.  It is not considered a passenger car.  They consider it a motorcycle.

So you're the one with THE ANSWER but you just don't care? Gotcha.

I used to care.  No point in caring anymore.  All it will get you is a ton of grief and disappointments.

[Toad]

Just hand the xprize over.

First, they have to make it a 4 seater for adults. Then they have to prove it works in the real world, supply a workable business plan and prove it can be produced in a normal fashion.

So no handover just yet.

[Megalodon]

That will not win.  It is not considered a passenger car.  They consider it a motorcycle.

Wrong it is considered a passanger car.