How to get things done: Car MPG as an example

[moot]

Can we put chains on those tires?
(Image removed from quote.)

It's probably so light that it wouldn't need much teeth to tread snow and ice..  Weathering might be a itch, though..

I am not against the government giving a billion dollar prize for the first solar panel that is say 75% efficient and cost less.

lazs

Apparently, solar is going to be efficient enough to be truly competitive in a few years.

[Bones]

you know what they say about opinion's 

Please show me your entry that meets ALL the requirements as of right now...TODAY!

Yes, I have an opinion, as do you.  They both carry equal weight.  The only possible difference is, I do have a design that would have a chance of winning.  Yes, it meets all the criteria for the mainstream.  Do you?

That said, I consider 3 or 4 of the entries good solid candidates for winning based on the overall goal of the competition.  One of the entries looks intersting but they did not divulge enough information to assess their potential.

No point in sharing my design.  I will build it.  I will build it for me.  It will take me about 5 years to get it done as I am just a working slob like most people.  Screw the rest of the world and their superficial solutions to problems.  I told you I was cynical about this. And if you choose to disbelieve I have a solution, then that is also your opinion and I could care less.

My goal is to eventually get my house off the grid entirely.  It will be through my own designs.

[VonMessa]

You'll be sorry when he is all finished,   MuHaHaHa.......

[Bones]

That design is horribly inefficient, but it makes decent movie stock.

I forgot to mention.  I vould field my car today in the X-Prize, if I had the money.  It is all about money.  It has nothing to do with the what is actually the best design.  The best design has not been entered yet and will never be entered as the poor schmuck who has the idea/design cannot afford to build it in the timeframe needed and no one has the balls to fund it unless he builds it first.  Screw 'em all!

[lazs2]

our diesel is just too damn dirty with sulfur to run those neato euro turbo diesels.   This is changing because we are cleaning up our fuel but... look at the price of the new "low sulfur" diesel now.

I think cheap, efficient solar panels will change everything.  Once we are all pretty much off the grid with cheap or free electricity it opens up the possibility of neato little electric hot rods for most of our travel.

lazs

[Fulmar]

The problem I see with solar panels is we need batteries to store the electrical power, and generally you need a lot of them.  When I worked at Batteries Plus for my college job, we would get a price increase and corporate or our vendor would give us a 'sad' explanation why they have to pass on the price increase.  Anyways, IIRC, the cost of lead on the open market went up about 400% from 2002-2003 to 2007.  The cost of metal is going up everywhere.  This is why I'm not a fan of Hybrids because if we started replacing a majority of cars on the road with hybrids, there's a lot more expensive metals we're putting into cars.

And I'm very curious what the used car market is going to be in 7-8 years (the expected life of a hybrids battery banks).  Are dealers/owners going to fork over the $2k-3k for new batteries?  And are these batteries going to still cost $2k-3k in 7-8 years?  What's the cost of a hybrid going to be in their production is increased to take a majority of the market?

IMHO, hybrids are a very small bandaid for a very large wound.  People criticized reduced funding a few years ago by the administration into hybrids in favor of fuel cells.  But if you're going to stick money into a 'solution' why waste it on a bandaid?  For the short term, I favor fuel effecient small cars.

Just before I left that job, we had stored junk batteries in back by our dumpster in a locked gate.  About a month after we started doing that someone broke into the gate and took a pallet of batteries (3 layers, around 70+ car batteries) most likely to sell at a scrap yard.  We just had a police sting in the area at our two local scrap metal yards for stolen metal goods.

[lazs2]

No, you don't really need battery backup if you are on the grid.. the grid is what is the biggest problem for electric companies.. like trying to force an elephant through a straw.

The way solar works is that during the day.. the meters run backwards and the electric companies not only don't need to supply the grid but can use the power for industry.   At night.. demand is low in any case and you buy back some of the power you "sold" to them.   You end up with a small or no bill for the year.

Out in the boonies and not hooked up to the grid.. you would want backup.. either batteries or a generator or wind or all three.

Even at this point.. guys with solar are seeing $50 a month power bills instead of their former $300

lazs

[Fulmar]

No, you don't really need battery backup if you are on the grid.. the grid is what is the biggest problem for electric companies.. like trying to force an elephant through a straw.

The way solar works is that during the day.. the meters run backwards and the electric companies not only don't need to supply the grid but can use the power for industry.   At night.. demand is low in any case and you buy back some of the power you "sold" to them.   You end up with a small or no bill for the year.

Out in the boonies and not hooked up to the grid.. you would want backup.. either batteries or a generator or wind or all three.

Thanks for the 411.  I had assumed wrong since everyone I dealt with were in the boonies.

[Hap]

35 to 50 years from now, there'll be an expose movie about how we've all been taken to the cleaners when it comes to MPG's etc.

Sorta like "Tucker."

[68Wooley]

I think cheap, efficient solar panels will change everything.  Once we are all pretty much off the grid with cheap or free electricity it opens up the possibility of neato little electric hot rods for most of our travel.

I hope so. All that torque available straight away would equal fun without super high hp figures.

You're right about the sulphur in diesel. Even with low sulphur blends, most EU diesels don't meet CA emissions standards. There's various techniques being introduced to counter that (VW's blutech etc) that inject some rude sounding liquid into the exhaust stream to clean it up and it seems to work well. That said, it just adds complexity and hence price. With Diesel at $5 a gallon round here, you'd have to do a well of a lot of miles to recover the additional outlay on purchase price.

[Charon]

Big auto actually has more clout than big oil, from what I've seen. The diesel reg that Laz mentioned, for example, was a pollution solution that big auto pawned off on the oil industry. There were solutions that could have come more from the engineering/engine side or the fuel side and the fuel side was pushed through.

Big auto builds the cars that America wants and that make the most money in the process. Usually those two are one and the same. SUVs and 200+ HP sedans, etc. American doesn't have a history of wanting small matchbox cars. If automakers could find an efficient technology that would let a $40K SUV get 50mpg then they would be all over it.

Charon

[lazs2]

hap.. do you know anything about the Tucker besides the movie?

It would not have sold.   It would not have been reliable.  It had some inovative features that no one wanted at the time.   It would have cost a bunch and been expensive to repair.

I have heard that the new gee wizzz turbo diesels are going to be arriving this year.    This will be bad news for the hybrids.

lazs

[68Wooley]

I have heard that the new gee wizzz turbo diesels are going to be arriving this year.    This will be bad news for the hybrids.

lazs

Diesels might save the truck and large SUV market - particularly if you do a lot of heavy towing where a diesels will murder a gas engine for mpg. For the light truck and car market, the economics are less clear cut.

Let's say you pay $4000 premium to buy a diesel Honda Accord over the equivalent I4 gas model (heavier engine construction required by higher compression / expensive exhaust cleaning systems). Let's also say that diesel retains its 20% cost premium over regular gas - say $4.80 versus $4.00 a gallon. Now let's assume the gas car does on overall 26 mpg to the diesels 40mpg. That gives a cost per mile (for fuel) of 15.4 cents per mile for the gas car and 12 cents per mile for the diesel.

To recover that $4000 initial outlay, you're going to have to cover 117647 miles. Bear in mind diesels also tend to have higher maintenance costs. There's also the question of where the additional diesel comes from if demand goes up. Its not like there's huge amounts of spare gas refining capacity that could be converted, and the process is apparently pretty expensive.

Of course, there are other factors to consider not least of which will be that the diesel will probably be a far nicer car to drive than the gas model with freight train like torque for overtaking and relaxed low-rev cruising. I drove the previous generation European Accord with a diesel engine (Acura TSX in the US market) and it was a really nice car. Buy it as an alternative to a V6 and it makes a bit more sense.

All in all though, gas engine technology is moving ahead as well and I think for the time being, gas is going to rule the US market.

[Fulmar]

Good post Wooley.

[Urchin]

I know what I'm doing about gas prices... I'm buying a used Ninja 250. 

Signed up for the Basic Riders Course at the local community college in early August.  May try to get in earlier, but I'll be travelling for work a bit this summer.  Figure 2k for the bike, 1k for gear.  Won't save any money in the first year, but I imagine once gas is sitting at 7 or 8 bucks a gallon next year I'll be saving even when you consider the added cost in insurance and maintenance.