Is Al Qaeda stupid?

[AKIron]

China isn't going to do anything. If they move to take over the ME the entire globe would be mobilized to stop them. If it makes you feel good to wave the China flag feel free but it's not likely.

Feel good? Hardly as I think we would be obliged to step in and stop them. Remember what happened when we cut off the oil supply to another expanding asian country?

[Rich46yo]

Maybe China's 200 million man army moving in to establish "order" would be a cold shower on that dream.

Except that China has an extremely limited ability to project power much past its borders. I dont care how many little men in Mao hats they can boast. And they know it better then anyone which is why they went on a crash plan for buy/stealing/developing advanced military technology after Gulf-1.

It must have been hard for the Chinese Generals to have watched that show on CNN and to have realized their plan for "peoples war" was best left in the last century. How are the Chinese going to get their 200 million army to the Mideast? Mule Train?

[FrodeMk3]

Except that China has an extremely limited ability to project power much past its borders. I dont care how many little men in Mao hats they can boast. And they know it better then anyone which is why they went on a crash plan for buy/stealing/developing advanced military technology after Gulf-1.

It must have been hard for the Chinese Generals to have watched that show on CNN and to have realized their plan for "peoples war" was best left in the last century. How are the Chinese going to get their 200 million army to the Mideast? Mule Train?

Underestimating the Chinese has been the bane of everyone facing them. Like we found out when we almost had the NKPA pushed out of their own country, North of the Yalu during the Korean war. It was the Chinese that turned the tide of that conflict.

I'm sure that the Chinese realize that keeping up technologically is important. That's why they do. They even make some of our missile guidance parts, used by the U.S. military.

Look at a couple of these:http://www.taiwandc.org/nyt-9903.htm

http://www.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/us/2005/d20050719china.html

[Eagler]

all china would have to do is close our walmarts and the US would wave the white flag begging for their cheap junk back

[SD67]

^ What he said.
Our world has become dependant on cheap Chinese crap.
Only real question is if China stops making the crap, or they stop sending it to us because we're too busy shooting each other, do we have the ability to make it for ourselves anymore?

[AKIron]

Except that China has an extremely limited ability to project power much past its borders. I dont care how many little men in Mao hats they can boast. And they know it better then anyone which is why they went on a crash plan for buy/stealing/developing advanced military technology after Gulf-1.

It must have been hard for the Chinese Generals to have watched that show on CNN and to have realized their plan for "peoples war" was best left in the last century. How are the Chinese going to get their 200 million army to the Mideast? Mule Train?

Well, it's not like they have to get them there all at once. They do have transport planes, ships, trucks, tanks, etc.... If they could put less than half of one percent of their boots on the ground there it would be more than sufficient to subjugate a a country. A constant stream of reinforcements to replace their dead would not see the negative headlines that it does here. An alliance with Iran would make this more than just possible.

[Rich46yo]

Except that during Korea there was rough parity of weapons quality.

They arent "keeping pace" they are "stealing it". And please name these missile guidance parts they are selling us. About everything high tech they have has been stolen or bought from us, the Euros, or the Russians.

Underestimating the Chinese has been the bane of everyone facing them. Like we found out when we almost had the NKPA pushed out of their own country, North of the Yalu during the Korean war. It was the Chinese that turned the tide of that conflict.

I'm sure that the Chinese realize that keeping up technologically is important. That's why they do. They even make some of our missile guidance parts, used by the U.S. military.

Look at a couple of these:http://www.taiwandc.org/nyt-9903.htm

http://www.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/us/2005/d20050719china.html

So what? They will take two years to get them there? And once the first batch gets there what do they do? How could they possibly even get past their 3 mile territorial strip without getting blasted by the USN? My God they cant even take a crummy little Island off their own coast and you have them marching off to fight a peasants war 5,000 miles away. They dont even have the transport capability to take Taiwan which is 90 miles away. How the heck can they attack the oil producing regions in the MidEast?

They dont have Americas transport fleets, our carrier battle groups, our long range bombers, our submarines, our high tech, networked, worldwide, strike capability. 1/2 of China is still crapping in outhouses. They dont have the capability to project power past their borders! Or much past them!

Your statement was silly and not based in reality. Get over it.

Well, it's not like they have to get them there all at once. They do have transport planes, ships, trucks, tanks, etc.... If they could put less than half of one percent of their boots on the ground there it would be more than sufficient to subjugate a a country. A constant stream of reinforcements to replace their dead would not see the negative headlines that it does here. An alliance with Iran would make this more than just possible.

[dirtdart]

Wow...talk about a forum post that went down a rabbit hole....  Attacking Saudi Oil is valid.  Anything that can draw combat power, whether ours or someone else's, to secure refineries is OK.  The real question is whether or not they are extorting the Saudi's for cash and trying to prove that their kick back will be cheap compared to losing a refinery.  As far as the Chinese are concerned, when we in the US start defending our own industry hitting imported goods with high tariffs, they will go by the wayside.  They have very low quality control, their labor care sucks, and eventually we as consumers will tire of it.  To illustrate, several foreign nations charge a 100 percent tax on imported cars to encourage the purchasing of indigenously produced vehicles.  Anyway, my observations.  My experiences in Iraq with those al-quadea clowns was they were less interested in the proselization of the world than they were securing their tribal / personal power base. 

[AKIron]

Your statement was silly and not based in reality. Get over it.

Only time will tell.

[AKIron]

Wow...talk about a forum post that went down a rabbit hole....  Attacking Saudi Oil is valid.  Anything that can draw combat power, whether ours or someone else's, to secure refineries is OK.  The real question is whether or not they are extorting the Saudi's for cash and trying to prove that their kick back will be cheap compared to losing a refinery.  As far as the Chinese are concerned, when we in the US start defending our own industry hitting imported goods with high tariffs, they will go by the wayside.  They have very low quality control, their labor care sucks, and eventually we as consumers will tire of it.  To illustrate, several foreign nations charge a 100 percent tax on imported cars to encourage the purchasing of indigenously produced vehicles.  Anyway, my observations.  My experiences in Iraq with those al-quadea clowns was they were less interested in the proselization of the world than they were securing their tribal / personal power base. 

Whatever their motivation for destabilizing Saudi Arabia I find it interesting how effective the Saudi government was in rounding up 700 conspirators. Spreading hatred for the US and destabilizing other countries is one thing, hindering oil production in Saudi Arabia is apparently quite another.

Wonder if these guys will have it as good as their buds at Gitmo?

[Captain Virgil Hilts]

Rich, let's just say that I'm very happy that you are not in charge of contingency planning for the military.

Your assumption that China cannot take Taiwan is false. The fact is, at this point, it is neither politically nor militarily expedient for them to attempt to take Taiwan by force. Their ever expanding economical power combined with their growing military strength makes them a force to be respected, not ignored.

It is foolish to assume that we have absolute military dominance over a power such as China. It is also a mistake that has been made repeatedly before.

[Rich46yo]

I dont think they can win.

As subtle and intelligent as they are they are also strangely ignorant about their enemies as well. They dont really understand modern war but eventually they are going to have to fight it to reach their goals.

They can cause a lot of trouble. A lot of pain. They understand politics remarkably well. I dont believe they really understand that we will fight them for 1,000 years if necessary.

When one looks at the 9/11 attacks ones sees the resiliency, ruthlessness, and resourcefulness of Al Qaeda. But at the same time 9/11 happened more because of our own stupidity then Al Qaeda's genius. I mean lets face it! As a member of American Law Enforcement I must say that was our most stupidest moment ever. And thats saying a lot.

At the same time most Americans dont understand middle eastern peoples very well. We dont understand the importance of family and tribal ties people have over there and that Al Qaeda has found useful. And we still dont understand the power of fundamentalist Islam on disaffected youth in the region. Or most of us dont. So sadly, even 7 years after 9/11, most Americans still dont understand their enemy or give them enough credit for what they have accomplished. We see that in this thread, tho I understand its mostly squeekers calling these people "stupid".

I and others who have served in the region can probably paint a different portrait. These are not "stupid" people we are fighting.

[Rich46yo]

Rich, let's just say that I'm very happy that you are not in charge of contingency planning for the military.

Your assumption that China cannot take Taiwan is false. The fact is, at this point, it is neither politically nor militarily expedient for them to attempt to take Taiwan by force. Their ever expanding economical power combined with their growing military strength makes them a force to be respected, not ignored.

It is foolish to assume that we have absolute military dominance over a power such as China. It is also a mistake that has been made repeatedly before.

I never said that. And the thread is being hijacked. I said China doesnt have the military capability to project power much past its borders. And certainly not the middle east. Saddam had a huge numbers advantage over us and what good did it do him? Unlike him I understand modern war, and the Chinese certainly understand it better then I. And stop babbling about contingency planning. I never said anything of the sort.

Taiwan would be a tough nut for them to crack even without the USN getting invoved. The Chinese have no experience in amphibious OPs and very limited experience in combined arms attacks. Taiwan would be very difficult for them. Besides they dont have the hulls to transport and supply such an invasion army. They have only a very small force of marines trained for such an operation anyways. An Amphib OP is very different then a Land OP.

Im done with this nonsense and am going back to topic.

[AKIron]

tho I understand its mostly squeekers calling these people "stupid".

I and others who have served in the region can probably paint a different portrait. These are not "stupid" people we are fighting.

Mama used to say, "stupid is as stupid does". Getting 700 members caught in a plot to attack a country known for swift and permanent justice without inhibitions regarding interrogation ain't all that smart, but maybe that's just me. Waking sleeping giants ain't all that smart either if you were to ask Japan and maybe the Taliban but again, maybe that's just my opinion. I don't know what a squeeker is but I should probably take offense?

While I didn't serve in the middle east I did serve over 7 years in the far east and know at least a little about Asians.

[Rich46yo]

Mama used to say, "stupid is as stupid does". Getting 700 members caught in a plot to attack a country known for swift and permanent justice without inhibitions regarding interrogation ain't all that smart, but maybe that's just me. Waking sleeping giants ain't all that smart either if you were to ask Japan and maybe the Taliban but again, maybe that's just my opinion. I don't know what a squeeker is but I should probably take offense?

While I didn't serve in the middle east I did serve over 7 years in the far east and know at least a little about Asians.

Strange tho how they found the little cracks in our weaknesses however and are exploiting them.

Al Qaeda is not dead. They are still operating in quite a few countries. Including openly in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen.

All this points to a continued income stream and a continued recruit stream.

If you lived in Asia then you understand the "long view". We in the west think short where'as these people think "long".

Just look at the worldwide trouble these few thousand "stupid" people caused. Look at the countless billions spent by world Governments to fight them in some way. And they are still operating and are as big a threat as ever. "Stupid is as stupid does" indeed.