So what do you oil dependant people think about this?

[bj229r]

It's obvious many dramatic people here didn't see all the videos or didn't actually comprehend the transcript since many arguments they bring up have been covered and explained by the professor.

He explains the dangers of steady growth and also that steady growth won't stay steady forever with finite resources.

Go beyond oneselfs ego and just listen to the guy.

To that end, study recently came out that said demand will increase 85% over next 20 years (3rd world countries becoming 2nd world countries) hopefully, by that time our transportation needs will be figured out

[Rolex]

"... hopefully, by that time our transportation needs will be figured out."

You can't be serious? Twenty years?

An awful lot of people have been saying for an awful long time that the type of price rise you're seeing now would be along soon. This is not some temporary interruption in supply like all the other oil price hiccups since the early 1970s. Each 'oil shock' before had transient supply underpinnings. This is the real deal - the start of the long term increases in price that reflect the true supply challenges.

The saber rattling against Iran, the monetary policies of Greenspan and the fed and the failure in Iraq are adding to it, but the reduction in excess capacity are real. Excess capacity is now only 2%, down from 6% a few years ago. Watch the prices when it reaches parity and then flips.

This is not fantasy or politics, and not junk science as some would like to call it. The CEOs of the worlds largest oil companies are on record that we're at or near the peak of oil production and demand will soon exceed supply. The head of the petroleum industry trade group has said the same thing. Research it yourself.

I live in a place that changed its energy culture after the first oil shock in the 1970s. The Japanese said they would never be left in the same position again and stuck with it.

- Today, almost one half of all the solar power generated in the world is generated in Japan.

- While the GDP has doubled since the first oil shock, Japan has about the same energy consumption as it did in the 1970s. That is an amazing statistic. Japanese factories use one half of the energy of US or European factories to produce the same monetary unit of productivity.

I suspect that many companies will be looking to learn from Japan again in the future, as they did in years past.

It's Groundhog Day all over again.

[CAP1]

I'm not able to listen to it right now, but I automatically distrust anything that is presented to me right away as "Purely Factual."

Life experiences have taught me that "Purely Factual" presentations, rarely are.

i'll watch some of it on my lunch break, but i do have a question first?

whose facta are they? are they "his" facts, "her" facts, or "the true facts"?

[Rolex]

I have sweaters older than lasersailor, so his "life experiences" may not impress me too much.

His main point is arithmetic. He digresses at times to localized it for his audience.

[lazs2]

leslie.. you said it perfectly.. I have no problem with the guys math.. it is simple enough.. even I am that good at math.. the problem is that it does not apply to any reality or planet that I know of.. no system is that simple.

e25 said.....

"Sample link here of why the math of oil depletion is completely useless.  For those too lazy to click, it says Russia's proven oil reserves grew by 8% last year.

Here is one that describes a 30 billion increase in Venezuela's proven oil reserves.

Basically and simply stated, when we actually look for oil, we find it.

Said another way, the same people who are telling you today that we will run out of oil in 40 years were saying the exact same thing about 40 years ago.


But wait!!!  if we do the exponential math... if russia has an 8% increase per year and we have a 10% (low figures from offshore and ANWAR...   my gawd!   we will be swimming in oil by the year 2090..   we will all drown!! 


I am afraid that you liberal socialists here and hand wringers are using the good (and badly groomed) professors simple math to further your agenda of liberal socialism and personal panic mongering.   You are doing it so that no real solution (exploration and nuclear) can be done.

Sure.. we need to develop solar and nuclear and wind and tide power and whatever comes down the pike but  we need to explore for and drill for oil right now.

When oil gets expensive enough I will have a solar powered home... I will build an electric hot rod..  it is all good.. I will use the then quaint and fairly expensive gasoline to power my antique toys and I will be living as well as ever and... more important.. having just as much fun and.. even more importantly..  I won't have spoiled the whole time with hand wringing and womanly worry.

lazs

[33Vortex]

Excess capacity is now only 2%, down from 6% a few years ago. Watch the prices when it reaches parity and then flips.

That right there is the scary part. It is a problem of such magnitude it will change the world as we know it forever.

Didn't know that Japan was so far advanced, if your figures are correct they'll have a serious head start in the post-oil economy. WTG Japan

demand will increase 85% over next 20 years ... hopefully, by that time our transportation needs will be figured out

That's just outrageous, to assume that all problems will be solved in 20 years time. 

[lazs2]

rolex..  I was there for the first energy crises..  I believe that things will change much more rapidly this time.  the tech wasn't there.    Does japan produce a drop of oil?  how much do they import?   solar alone will not run japan and the tech they have developed (admirable and sensible) will be transfered very quickly.. we see advances here in energy consumption on electronics every day.. not all of them come from japan either.   did japan invent and produce those funny lightbulbs?

We have solar systems here that will run whole homes.. they cost too much.  not way too much but.. too much.. they will get installed.. or something better will.. if electricity becomes too expensive.

electric cars exist.. even fun ones and ones that are fast and practical.. they are expensive but not that expensive.  Not if gas gets to be $20 a gallon say and you can't make cars get 80 mpg or more. 

It just all depends.   We are not without options and we are not unprepared.... 

I would challenge any of you "the end is nigh" guys to simply call one of the solar panel contractors and become completely energy independent.. the cost will be not much more than your current electric bill on payments with rebates.    If you really believe the drivel you spout then you will be in the catbird seat in a few years.   Paying a tenth or less of what everyone else pays... with inflation.. even less.   show us your faith in saint algore and the good professor... do something besides pointing fingers.

Hell.. speaking of that.. I bet I use less energy overall than most of you liberal aholes and I know I use less than that proff and algore.

lazs

[lasersailor184]

I have sweaters older than lasersailor, so his "life experiences" may not impress me too much.

His main point is arithmetic. He digresses at times to localized it for his audience.

I have sweaters older than me too.  What's your point?

[Rolex]

My point is that your life experience is short. It just made me chuckle to read someone still in university talking about their life experience. You have only been aware of two presidents in your lifetime. I'm not saying anything bad about you so you don't have to be defensive. One thing you have to keep in mind is that everything you figure out about people and life is something some many of us figured out 30 years ago also... when we were your age. You'll remember this conversation when you're older.

--------

Japan has very little oil or gas at all, lazs. It imports virtually all of it. About 40% of electricity is nuclear generated and it has a token coal industry and some hydro. It has spread out its energy acquisition across the globe to eliminate a single source problem as much as it can.

I'm not sure if you're talking about the fluorescent bulbs with the incandescent glow and threads? Those have been here for at least 20 years and incandescent bulbs are not too common now. I use old fashioned bulbs because my old gaijin eyes can barely handle the glare from the Aces High sun.

Oh, I was in the gas lines too in the 1970s. I think the youngsters today are going to have a tougher time than we did because of oil, energy in general and a society where it seems like half of all households have a member who works for the government, is contracted to the government, sells or produces something for the government, or is in some way beholden to the government for some service or money.

I wonder how many that really is? That is an interesting theory and I'm going to try to find some data to see what it is. If it is more than half, would that make the US a socialist economy? Hmmm...

[lazs2]

rolex.. .I am not in disagreement with you but I do feel that we are far more global now than in the 70's..  the tech transfer happens at light speed.. the iphone is in homes in pakistan in a week kinda thing.

This is a world problem.. japan will barely hold it's own with current tech and a good solar program.. they need the oil worse than we do is all I am saying..

Any new breakthrough in battery or solar tech is transfered at light speed compared to what it could have been in the 70's

I guess by the standards of this board I am an optimist of the highest order..  I personally see it as most of the others being distrought hand wringing womenly men.

If you could by a hummer.. a first gen one with every option in good shape.. you could maybe get it cheap because of the handwringers....

Don't touch it.. put it in storage and in 30 years (for you younger guys) it will sell at the auction for enough money to retire on and.. there will be plenty of diesel to fill up the tank at not much more per gallon then as it is in todays dollars..

Wish I had had enough money to buy every GTO and hemi that I seen sell for $500 or less during the last "crises" of the 70's... 

lazs

[Jackal1]

When the oil is there and we know it.
We don`t drill and use it.
Not what I would consider a shortage. A self imposed shortage maybe.
Thanks Al.
Just watched the buffoon on the news stating that wind power development would cost us trillions and trillions of dollars over the next few years. He then went on to ask the question "Why use this energy?" His answer .."Because it`s free."
I`ll send you a nickel free. FREE! Right now! It`s FREE!
Please include $22.95 shipping and handling charges.

[bj229r]

"... hopefully, by that time our transportation needs will be figured out."

You can't be serious? Twenty years?

An awful lot of people have been saying for an awful long time that the type of price rise you're seeing now would be along soon. This is not some temporary interruption in supply like all the other oil price hiccups since the early 1970s. Each 'oil shock' before had transient supply underpinnings. This is the real deal - the start of the long term increases in price that reflect the true supply challenges.

The saber rattling against Iran, the monetary policies of Greenspan and the fed and the failure in Iraq are adding to it, but the reduction in excess capacity are real. Excess capacity is now only 2%, down from 6% a few years ago. Watch the prices when it reaches parity and then flips.

This is not fantasy or politics, and not junk science as some would like to call it. The CEOs of the worlds largest oil companies are on record that we're at or near the peak of oil production and demand will soon exceed supply. The head of the petroleum industry trade group has said the same thing. Research it yourself.

I live in a place that changed its energy culture after the first oil shock in the 1970s. The Japanese said they would never be left in the same position again and stuck with it.

- Today, almost one half of all the solar power generated in the world is generated in Japan.

- While the GDP has doubled since the first oil shock, Japan has about the same energy consumption as it did in the 1970s. That is an amazing statistic. Japanese factories use one half of the energy of US or European factories to produce the same monetary unit of productivity.

I suspect that many companies will be looking to learn from Japan again in the future, as they did in years past.

It's Groundhog Day all over again.

Think of where technology was 20 years ago--(WHAT was your computer capable of in 1988?) Also, where it would be now if our backs were against the wall... In 1960, we could barely make a rocket leave the atmosphere...1969, we were walking on the moon...1971, we were DRIVING on the moon! ....libs are soooooooooo depressing

[WWhiskey]

This is a university lecture by a professor emeritus of Physics at Univ. of Colorado-Boulder, and you're saying it's not factual? (Image removed from quote.)

Allow me to question your judgement, and perception.

Those that can,, DO!! Those that can't,, TEACH!!

[lazs2]

gee vortex.. I guess this isn't going the way you wanted eh?

No one is questioning his math or his credentials.. they are both impressive.. they also have nothing to do with this complex and ever changing planet and its people.

lazs

[33Vortex]

I wanted open discussion, not controlled discussion. I've not posted in here for a while due to lack of time but have followed the debate closely. Keep it going it's very interesting.

I for one believe these problems he adressed are of tremendous importance to us if we are to continue to live and prosper on this planet. It's like, there's no other way to go than to deal with it. We'll have to one way or another. Like he pointed out, we can act now and choose from the list which one(s) would be the better alternative(s), or nature will decide for us.

The way it's going right now, ignorance and greed is prevailing thus nature will have it's course.