I dunno... like Iraq 1 & 2, they have numbers on the ground, plenty of last generation armor. Unlike the Iraqi conflicts, they have a LOT of the best wheeled APC's in the business. They have decent close anti-air capabilities... at least initially. OTOH, Our attack heli's and armament is a generation ahead of theirs.
Where we have an 'edge', we have a big edge... Air Supremacy, and down low; force multipliers like the hellfire and javelins. Stealth. Night vision (in quantity), Communications. Our special teams are very good, as are theirs... but we got more of 'em. Our Arty and counter battery capabilities are second to none. Our ground troops, man for man are worth 10 of theirs in the field.
Given they have the 'home field' advantage, our logistics remain the biggest burden we'd carry... but the 'pipeline' is open, we're already essentially 'in theater' with a damn big assed assortment of regional basing options.
Our achilles heel at this point in time is the Naval picture. With russia's black sea fleet there.. and no US Fleet units to counter them, we're stymied. We need Poti.. logistics demands it, the russians know it.
All things considered, I'd say we could quickly overwhelm what assets they have on the ground in Georgia now, and assuming we can close down the two land routes into georgia, it'd be pretty much over... except for that damn russian fleet out there.. fast re-supply for them, and two ports right off the bat to work in on top of a not insignificant amphib deployment they've already made up in the NW.
If we see an American Task force move into the area... that could be a pretty strong indication of intent. Whadaya figure... coupla weeks before we know?
It's hard to predict the diplomatic picture at this point. I'd like to say that The White House set's some kinda deadline for hard action, but will it be a week? Two weeks? A month or two? That's the big question IMHO.
I would like to point out that this is a different theatre than the middle east; It's harder to access even than Iraq or Afghanistan. Anything that could get there right now, and get there fast, will have to be airlifted. Also, for a rapid offensive through the desert, we were able to use our technological advantages' such as Laser/Thermal imaging, and High-speed Mechanized units' to their fullest. This campaign would be through Mountainous/Forested terrain. That might negate some of the long-range fights' we saw in the open desert, and the advantages' we enjoyed against Saddam's army technologically. You're right about the Black Sea fleet; If the Turks' even give us permission to get
into the damn thing, It's not really an ideal place to put a CVBG. We will have an honest-to-god Naval threat, Not just a couple of missile boats, but Cruisers, Destroyers, Frigates,
attack submarines, Cruise missile boats...All backed up by Russian Naval aviation in force. As far as what happens in the air...I'm under the impression that the Russians' sell all of their second-hand crap, and keep the best for themselves. They will have things' like the S-300 missile systems, and the SU-37's, etc. etc. And, their training is probably a lot better than most of the Third world countries' they sell to. I'm not sure what kind of aerial fight we could expect.
One last thing I would like to point out, Hang. To the best of my knowledge, No U.S. soldier has ever directly faced his Russian counterpart in combat. We're not talking about the same guys' that Saddam had to confiscate all of their white underclothing to try to keep them from surrendering as fast. These are the descendants' of those guys' that held tough at places like Leningrad and Stalingrad; That drove the Wehrmacht from the gates' of Moscow, back to the Reichstag in Berlin. I don't know how we could factor in their fighting spirit. They might all be like Boroda, and worship Putins' still-wet turds, for all I know. It's too much of an unknown.
It would definetaly be the toughest fight that this generations' yet to see.
