Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008

[Mace2004]

This election is, by definition, historical in that we'll have either a black president or female vice president but I think there's even more to it than that.  There's a reason for all the hyperventilation by the left over Palin and she may be the most significant VP running mate ever selected.  The Left knows it and they are scared.  The media already gave us a taste of the panic as they scrambled around like cockroaches when the light comes on.  She's a candidate for VP who actually has achievements while making it perfectly clear that Obama has none.  She not only shores up the Republican base but, IMHO, she also is going to go a long way toward bringing in the female vote and putting Ohio into play.  Despite the way the Left likes to portray successful women in this country (pro-choice, anti-gun, liberal), the majority of American women are much closer to Palin.  This should put Florida firmly in McCain's camp and has a very good chance of swinging even Ohio.  If that happens, and I think it is likely, then game over.

[MORAY37]

This election is, by definition, historical in that we'll have either a black president or female vice president but I think there's even more to it than that.  There's a reason for all the hyperventilation by the left over Palin and she may be the most significant VP running mate ever selected.  The Left knows it and they are scared.  The media already gave us a taste of the panic as they scrambled around like cockroaches when the light comes on.  She's a candidate for VP who actually has achievements while making it perfectly clear that Obama has none.  She not only shores up the Republican base but, IMHO, she also is going to go a long way toward bringing in the female vote and putting Ohio into play.  Despite the way the Left likes to portray successful women in this country (pro-choice, anti-gun, liberal), the majority of American women are much closer to Palin.  This should put Florida firmly in McCain's camp and has a very good chance of swinging even Ohio.  If that happens, and I think it is likely, then game over.

Any source, or all speculation?

I live in florida, in one of the biggest republican counties there is... and don't see ANY of the women liking Palin.  I'm an independent, with many republican friends, and the women just don't like her.  I'm sorry but, I think your ideology is flawed by your own opinion, sir.

PS.  Palin is a non-issue, and will slowly but surely fade away. 

[Mace2004]

Any source, or all speculation?

I live in florida, in one of the biggest republican counties there is... and don't see ANY of the women liking Palin.  I'm an independent, with many republican friends, and the women just don't like her.  I'm sorry but, I think your ideology is flawed by your own opinion, sir.

And yours is flawed by your narrow view.  I just found this but it confirms some of my initial observations: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/palin_power_fresh_face_now_more_popular_than_obama_mccain

As I mentioned, this is my opinion, as your statement is simply yours.  You remind me of the New York liberal who said "I don't know how he got elected, I know nobody that voted for him".  My daughter is at FSU.  You usually get more of a liberal lean to opinions there but, according to her, Palin is a huge hit on campus.  I also live in Florida (Tampa) and most of the folks, women and men, I've spoken to (and it's been a very big subject for discussion at work) and my wife's girl friends that saw Palin's speech have overwhelmingly positive views of her.  The ones that seem to have reservatons about her are ones that have only seen MSM reports or are hard-core left wingers. 

What is going to become important is how well she does given the relatively hostile environment of the MSM who have already shown their eagerness to immediately report unsubstantiated web rumors.  Of course they cover themselves by saying "we're just reporting what OTHERS are saying" which is as reassuring as someone who starts out their comment with "no offense but" and then launch right into an offensive comment as if the beginning excused the end.  It's only been a week and the reporting is pretty tawdry already, I doubt it'll improve.  Unsubstantiated and disproved allegations already include --She had an affair; her youngest child isn't her child, it's her grand child; she belonged to a "secessionist movement"; and she didn't provide appropriate pre-natal care for her son.  These are all MSM (MSNBC seems to be the worst) "reports" of what "others" are reporting.  Several MSM have gone after her son's birth records.  There is also the obligitory on-air condescension of the "reporters" who pointed out that her speech was written for her and she used teleprompters (CNN and MSNBC).  All of the speeches by all of the speakers were written by speech writers and all of them used teleprompters.  Why was this only mentioned regarding her?  Also, it seemed to me that there were a significant number of times when reporters referred to Palin as "Mayor" vice "Governor" when discussing her background.  Given the fact that the Governor of a state is a more substantive position than Senator I find that very interesting.  None of the reporters I've heard used the title "Community Organizer"...they apparently give him the benefit of the doubt and call him "Senator" even though he's done less as a Senator then Palin has done as a Governor.

What should really count though, and what I'm looking forward to, is her debate with Biden.  Biden has a long history of saying stupid things and, from what little I've seen of Palin, it appears she may well be the better "man" but then we'll see.

I stand by my opinion that Palin may very well be the most historic VP selection ever.

PS.  Palin is a non-issue, and will slowly but surely fade away.

Any source or all speculation?

[CAP1]

To sum up:  The south still won't vote for a black guy, news at 11.   

he's 1/2 white ya moron.


just for the record...i don't like him either.......

[indy007]

This election is, by definition, historical in that we'll have either a black president or female vice president but I think there's even more to it than that.  

This election is, by definition, nothing special. A combination black man, white woman ticket has already run for president. It happened before any of us were even alive.

[storch]

This election is, by definition, historical in that we'll have either a black president or female vice president but I think there's even more to it than that.  There's a reason for all the hyperventilation by the left over Palin and she may be the most significant VP running mate ever selected.  The Left knows it and they are scared.  The media already gave us a taste of the panic as they scrambled around like cockroaches when the light comes on.  She's a candidate for VP who actually has achievements while making it perfectly clear that Obama has none.  She not only shores up the Republican base but, IMHO, she also is going to go a long way toward bringing in the female vote and putting Ohio into play.  Despite the way the Left likes to portray successful women in this country (pro-choice, anti-gun, liberal), the majority of American women are much closer to Palin.  This should put Florida firmly in McCain's camp and has a very good chance of swinging even Ohio.  If that happens, and I think it is likely, then game over.

TR was the most significant VP in our history.  you are correct about the buzz regarding palin in the ranks of the weaker sex and the fact that she is overwhelmingly identified with.

[lasersailor184]

Obama will lose.  The NRA will tear him apart.

[Mace2004]

This election is, by definition, nothing special. A combination black man, white woman ticket has already run for president. It happened before any of us were even alive.

What ticket was that?  Also, the reason I say it is, by definition, historical is that it is guaranteed that whichever party wins that either a black or a woman will be either president or vice president.  Pretty historical just on these facts.  Now....does that "history making" mean anything to me?  No, not personnally.  I've been a conservative all my life and have never voted or not voted for someone just because of their race or gender as opposed to many that I know that say stuff like "I'll vote for any woman over any man" (quoting my Mother in Law).

[Mace2004]

TR was the most significant VP in our history.  you are correct about the buzz regarding palin in the ranks of the weaker sex and the fact that she is overwhelmingly identified with.

Now that's a very good point regarding TR.  You could also add in LBJ, not because he was good (he wasn't) but he was still significant but both of these became significant only after the election.  I was only focusing on Palin having the most significant impact on the election itself.  Historically, VP picks have had very little impact on electoral outcomes, Palin may have much more.  We'll have to wait and see.

[DREDIOCK]

Obama will lose.  The NRA will tear him apart.

The counter effect.

Abortion-rights groups target Palin
"Three major advocates of abortion rights are planning to spend nearly $30 million to defeat John McCain’s run for president, citing his new running mate as the core reason.
NARAL Pro-Choice America, Planned Parenthood and EMILY’s List have Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in their crosshairs, calling her a staunch opponent of abortion rights.

“This is the most anti-choice ticket in history of the Republican Party,” said Beth Shipp, the political director of NARAL. “McCain put someone as outside the mainstream as you can on his ticket, which is Sarah Palin,” Shipp added.

Hoping to drive a wedge between the pro-life GOP base and party centrists who favor abortion rights, NARAL Pro-Choice America plans to raise and spend $10 million to communicate to voters in 34 to 35 congressional districts and battleground states. The group is also targeting independents.

Planned Parenthood, another liberal group, plans to spend $10 million on its One Million Strong campaign, an effort to mobilize “pro-choice voters in battleground states,” said spokesman Tait Sye.

And EMILY’s List, a group that backs female Democratic candidates who support abortion, will spend nearly as much as the other groups on its Women Vote! program.[/b]
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/abortion-rights-groups-target-palin-2008-09-05.html

Thing is More people favor abortion rights then are anti abortion.

"Seventy-seven percent of respondents said abortion should either be generally available, or available but with stricter limits than now. Just 22 percent said abortion should not be permitted.

Public sentiment on the issue is about the same as it was ten years ago. The latest findings show the number of Americans who believe that abortion should be generally available is up slightly from two years ago, and about the same as it was in the spring of 2000.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/01/22/opinion/polls/main537570.shtml

Before anyone starts screaming about CBS. That link is supported by this study

"Depending upon how you frame the question, you can drive the support for abortion rights as high as 80 to 85 percent or as low as 25 percent," said Shaw. For example, circumstances that can have a major impact on public opinion include whether the abortion is performed in the first or second trimester of the pregnancy. The woman's reasons for seeking an abortion can also alter the public's opinion significantly.

"If you indicate that the woman wants an abortion because she has too many children, then support for abortion rights falls to as low as 25 percent," says Shaw. "But if you mention things like the woman's health or, particularly, danger to the woman's life, you can move support up to 80 or 85 percent."

Shaw says that his examination of the surveys also show that people discern between their feelings about the morality of abortion versus their support for legal proscriptions.

"If you ask people whether abortion is morally wrong, a majority will say yes," Shaw says. "At the same time, a majority will want it to be legal. So some portion of those people who say abortion is morally wrong are essentially flipping on the second question."

"Then, if you go a step further and ask about an amendment to the Constitution to prohibit abortion, an even stronger percentage of people will express opposition to that suggestion. This indicates that people are willing to tolerate other people doing things that are, in their view, morally wrong and are, therefore, willing to allow the practice to be legal."
http://www.collegenews.org/x2890.xml

And this Gallup poll



Lets not start an abortion debate here. Thats not what this info is about.
Our own personal opinions of right or wrong are irrelevent here
But rather the uphill battle the Mccain/Palin ticket will have if this issue becomes a main issue.

Same as with the Gun issue.
Two powerful lobbying groups are going to be at work here on different issues
In the end they will probably cancel each other out. but for different reasons

[lasersailor184]

You think that the abortion lobby even stands up to 1/10 what the gun lobby is?




   Good one dred.  You're always good for a laugh.

For a moment I thought you were being serious.

[DREDIOCK]

he's 1/2 white ya moron.


just for the record...i don't like him either.......

If you talk to alot of blacks around here. in NJ It doesnt matter if he is technically half black.
He looks black therefore he is black.

Now before he won the nomination. Alot of blacks didnt consider him black.
Once he won the nomination though.
Man oh man they embraced him as if they themselves had given birth to him.
Trust me. I hear about it ALL the time.

I used to argue with them. But like arguing with Laz. Eventually you end up just shaking your head in disbeleif  

[DREDIOCK]

You think that the abortion lobby even stands up to 1/10 what the gun lobby is?




   Good one dred.  You're always good for a laugh.

For a moment I thought you were being serious.

And dispite the pro life party having control of the Executive office in this country for 20 of the last 32 years
Roe V Wade was overturned exactly when?

And try buying a handgun here in NJ and tell me how easy it is.

Try legally bringing a Gun into DC in spite of the supreme court ruling and see how easy that is.

[Dead Man Flying]

If Palin has an impact on the election, it's because she mobilizes the Republican base to turn out and vote.  From a number of polls I've seen, support for her is pretty evenly split among women, with partisanship (unsurprisingly) being the strongest predictor of how voters view her.  I expect things will fall about the same for Independent leaners.

-- Todd/Leviathn

[lazs2]

too early to tell..  we all have our anecdotal stuff..  I live in kalifornia.. the lost state.   Before Palin the women around here all thought the osamabinbiden ticket was the way to go.. Now..  my mexican tells me all the "girls" in her office are Palin supporters.

that doesn't mean kalifornia will come to it's senses.

But I live in northern California.. not quite the same..  I realize that there are a lot more individualist people here who hate the nanny state.. 

moray lives in florida but.. he is surrounded by academics who live off big government.. who embrace socialism and saving the planet from humans...  of course he.. as I.. and all of us.. will see things in a scewed way.. 

I can't imagine what living in new jersey is doing to dred...  I guess I should cut him some slack because of it tho.

Oh.. dred.. how did your party go?  did you tell your liberal friends who think you are a "right winger" that I thought you were a liberal socialist? 

All of our perceptions are distorted by the area we are around and the people who populate it.

I most certainly hope that the osambinbiden team does not win tho.

To me.. this is just another nail biter election that is extremely important for all the wrong reasons.. it is important because it will be close and the stakes are high.

I can't win... another election where I can't win..  I can only lose of lose big.

This is getting old.

lazs