Author Topic: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008  (Read 1019 times)

Offline myelo

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #30 on: September 06, 2008, 10:43:24 AM »
If Palin has an impact on the election, it's because she mobilizes the Republican base to turn out and vote.  From a number of polls I've seen, support for her is pretty evenly split among women, with partisanship (unsurprisingly) being the strongest predictor of how voters view her.  I expect things will fall about the same for Independent leaners.

Yeah, the key will be the independents. After 8 years of Bush's failures, the Republican base is no longer big enough to carry the election. Rove's strategy was to just get the Republicans to the polls but that's not going to be enough this time. To win, they will have to get more of the independents than the democrats.

Palin clearly appeals to the hard right but it will be interesting to see if she can also pick up enough of the middle.
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Offline CAP1

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #31 on: September 06, 2008, 11:04:56 AM »
If you talk to alot of blacks around here. in NJ It doesnt matter if he is technically half black.
He looks black therefore he is black.

Now before he won the nomination. Alot of blacks didnt consider him black.
Once he won the nomination though.
Man oh man they embraced him as if they themselves had given birth to him.
Trust me. I hear about it ALL the time.

I used to argue with them. But like arguing with Laz. Eventually you end up just shaking your head in disbeleif  ;)

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Offline DREDIOCK

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2008, 11:11:39 AM »

Oh.. dred.. how did your party go?  did you tell your liberal friends who think you are a "right winger" that I thought you were a liberal socialist? 


lazs

No its "friend" Even her liberal husband is right of her.
She is basically your polar opposite.

The arguments started within 5 min of my being there when I said.
"Hey Deb, You must be in our glory. Either a Black man or a woman is going to be in one of the top two offices (She is white but firmly believes blacks are still being oppressed But she is also a big time womans libber)
Her response was immediate and full of venom "Palin?? I HATE that )(@#*# Right wing BIOTCH!"
I was like"she's only been out for a few days. how much about her could you possibly know??"
Onward went the rant about the pictures of Palin with a gun, being anti abortion. etc etc.
Now in honesty I wasnt expecting a ringing endorsement. I figured she would have something negative to say about her simply because the right put her out there. But I wasnt expecting this either.
 I truly believe that if Palin were standing there at that moment. she would have physically attacked her.
So onward went the day.
And I found myself arguing with her on subjects like
Guns- When I pointed out the fact that NJ has unconstitutionally some of the toughest gun control laws in the nation and the measures D.C. has taken to prevent people from legally owning guns in D.C in spite of the SC ruling. She said "Yea I know. I LOVE IT!"
The Economy.- Her opinion on How GREAT Clinton was and how the Economy has been terrible under Bush since 2000
The Iraq War, And the conduct of War in general.with her saying besides we shouldnt be there and wanting to just pull out. How we didnt support the troops financially and materially enough and my pointing out that nowhere in history has a commander received all he's wanted
The Republicans control of Congress.  
The Democrats control of congress.
Taxing the rich. And he wholehearted support of it.Her statement of "Its not right that Dick Cheney should be allowed to get such a large tax refund." really had me laughing
The Oil Companies Record profits
The rather large argument we usually have over social programs

The funny part is when she said "I've known you for 16 years and I still I cant believe how far right you are"
And I laughed and said "thats funny. cause just this morning some guy called me a liberal weenie"

Her responce. And I quote exactly "What planet on what far away galaxy is he from? He must be really really out there"

Like I said. your polar opposite

Laz I suspect that if we compared issue for issue our views.
You and I would find much more to agree on then disagree on.

Thing is. if anyone disagrees with you on almost any subject. no matter how much they agree with you on other subjects You label them as a Liberal socialist.
You then expand on that by insisting they have views on other subjects they never had.
I havent figured out your reasons for this other then perhaps it is a tactical maneuver on your part thinking that doing so will get people to change their minds.
Or that you are that hard headed that you believe that because they have one view on one subject. they must also have a particular view on another.
 Like say, If  you were to say Vanilla Ice cream is best and someone said Chocolate is better then that must also mean they dont like eating fish.
Entirely different opinions on entirely different subjects

Now I admit that some of my views are to the left of yours.
But I am nowhere even close to being near a liberal socialist.

From my vantage point. Both you. And her are off the charts to the right and left on alot of subjects.

Interestingly enough. the one subject her and I did agree on was illegal immigrants.
Though she stops just short of shooting them
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Offline DREDIOCK

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2008, 11:16:30 AM »


I can't imagine what living in new jersey is doing to dred...  I guess I should cut him some slack because of it tho.



All of our perceptions are distorted by the area we are around and the people who populate it.

I most certainly hope that the osambinbiden team does not win tho.

To me.. this is just another nail biter election that is extremely important for all the wrong reasons.. it is important because it will be close and the stakes are high.

I can't win... another election where I can't win..  I can only lose of lose big.

This is getting old.

lazs

Seperate post.
I just look around and laugh at their stupidity.
they rarely win arguments against me because I try to use their own info against them.
Much like I did in using the factcheck article to show how the claims of "Taxing the rich" werent really limiting those proposed taxes to the rich (Different thread where I posted a letter to a friend you may remember)
Where bias can be argued if one uses info provided by a right leaning piece of information against the left. or vise verse. Its kinda hard to argue with info provided by the opposing side. Then they just argue against their argument..

We agree completely on our perceptionw being distorted by the area's we live in.
Just based on your loathing of the school systems out there has me feeling badly for you.
Parents seem to have much more power here at least in my town as I know we have more input in what goes on.

We also agree this is an election in which we cant really win.

I've said that long ago.
Its like saying. How do you want your crap sandwich? On white or rye
« Last Edit: September 06, 2008, 11:29:30 AM by DREDIOCK »
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Offline MORAY37

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #34 on: September 09, 2008, 03:09:06 AM »




 

moray lives in florida but.. he is surrounded by academics who live off big government.. who embrace socialism and saving the planet from humans...  of course he.. as I.. and all of us.. will see things in a scewed way.. 




You really don't know me, so don't pretend to.  Live off big government... LMAO. The few grants I've had from any government source were NSF grants and are more strictly controlled than you could ever know...itemized down to the number of pencils used.  Most of my work has been funded from private sources, with an eye on returns.  Socialism?  Not even.  I'm much closer to a libertarian than you are.  Saving the planet from humans... no... saving some of the planet for the next 20 generations of humans, yes.  Lazs, as usual.... you don't see very much past your nose.
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Offline Holden McGroin

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #35 on: September 09, 2008, 03:23:13 AM »
moray lives in florida but.. he is surrounded by academics who live off big government.. who embrace socialism and saving the planet from humans...  of course he.. as I.. and all of us.. will see things in a scewed way..  lazs 


You really don't know me, so don't pretend to.  Live off big government... LMAO. The few grants I've had from any government source were NSF grants and are more strictly controlled than you could ever know...itemized down to the number of pencils used.  Most of my work has been...

He said you are 'surrounded by academics who live off big government'..

One can be surrounded by idiots without being one.
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Offline Mr No Name

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #36 on: September 09, 2008, 03:24:06 AM »


Its like saying. How do you want your crap sandwich? On white or rye

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Offline mg1942

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #37 on: September 09, 2008, 03:24:30 AM »
Electoral votes.com is slow.

Here's the latest forecast by realclearpolitics.com

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ (toss up)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10 (no toss-up)

Offline Slash27

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #38 on: September 09, 2008, 03:29:21 AM »
To sum up:  The south still won't vote for a black guy, news at 11.   :o




Really?

Offline Hangtime

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #39 on: September 09, 2008, 03:55:44 AM »
Quote
Interestingly enough. the one subject her and I did agree on was illegal immigrants.
Though she stops just short of shooting them

Ahhhhhhhhhhh.. Then there is hope. Work with that. Ask her what kind of illegals she'd like to see shipped home first.. how high the wall should be... patrolled by viscous dogs or friendly intelligent dogs with laser beams strapped their heads....

Work on that conservative crack in her shields. You can bring her to the light...
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Offline lazs2

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Re: Up-to-date electoral forecast 2008
« Reply #40 on: September 09, 2008, 08:40:47 AM »
dred.. you should read what you write..  you claim that you and I are not too far off on our views on most things yet you call me an extreme right winger.

moray tries to portray himself as a libertarian (first time I heard that one from him!) yet.. I have never seen him express anything that would be considered a libertarian principal.

dred..  so far as the school system..  I don't care how good or bad your public school is. that is not the point.. the point is that we have no choice.  we are all paying for one government organization to educate our kids.  I say that there are other schools out there and they should be funded as well for those who do not wish to have their kids "educated" by the government..  we don't want em to end up like moray do we?

My views are neither left nor right dogma.. they are individualist .. they may align themselves with either left or right but it is only when the left or right act like they care about individual rights.

As for your friend.. she is a typical liberal.. if you had agreed with her she would have been mellow and pleasant but. there is nothing as hateful and vicious as a liberal socialist who is not being agreed with.

That is what osamabama means by "bringing us together"  if we all agree with the socialists then we will be together..  if it is a hate crime to not agree.. once all the bad people are pacified or put in prison or killed.. it will be kooooooom biiiiiii ahhh time baby!

lazs