Ok, everyone's making attacks but no one is putting up well thought out argument why Obama will lose.
Gallup estimated that Obama loses about 6% nationally to straight up racism. I don't have my source handy on that, but I can find it if you want to call me out on it.
Nobody checks "cause he's a blackie" on the poll that says 'Reasons why you wouldn't vote for Obama'. So it must be inferred by voters who voted Democratic for candidates with similar policies but don't vote for Obama now.
I can cite a university study that shows Ohio in 2004 went Kerry. That when you factored various polling techniques, and controlled for bias error, Kerry should still have won - but didn't. Conclusion: the race was stolen.
In 4 years, the Republicans have gotten even better at vote stealing. Diebold machines cheating tricks harder to detect.
The best thing to have happen is large numbers of Republicans stay home, because they didn't really want McCain to start with. But Palin fixes much of that - she will bring out the evangelicals. And they are powerful, because they don't just bring themselves - they drag alot of independents in their churches to their side.
Obama will have to win Ohio by 10 points in reality, to squeek out a tabulated 1 point victory. And he's not winning by that much.
Michigan is a dead heat, which is amazing. Kilpatrick is in jail, Detroit has lost 600,000 residents since 2004. They can't hold Michigan, the west side evangelicals just love the moose lady.
Biden doesn't bring toejam. He was meant to shore up independents nationally on the experience issue of foreign policy. Evan Bayh wasn't going to bring Indiana with him, and they felt they had Virginia already.
McCain has it. Palin will go down in history as the housewife with the 105-IQ who became president, if he kicks off in office. And at his age, that is about a 15% chance.
It's terrifying, but the first thing she will do is choose Dick Cheney as Veep, and we'll be back to what we have.
