The economy, did you see it coming?

[drdeathx]

GHI..... Ben Stein was a real idiot on that video!!!!

[Nilsen]

I saw problems around december last year when property and housing reached a new high. Started to think about getting out before it tuned so in May i sold my business and retired. Thank cod for that.
Now that im out of it and i dont have to worry about a job i see good things in the crash. Everything had gotten way to expencive (even oil that i think should cost alot) and at some point the push has to break for a reset. It is a healthy thing in the medium to long run, but many will "suffer" abit.

[RTHolmes]

seen it coming for about 10 years. normal business cycles doing their thing, so business as usual then.

(I am an economist, but anyone having a quick glance at the long term graphs for house prices, stock markets etc would have seen it coming)

[drdeathx]

RT,

Traditionally we go through some kind of down turn every decade. Graphs are funny. You can analyse them and tell many things after the fact. They do not always give a true indicator but they sure are a measuring stick and you can tell the trend. You never know when the sucker is gonna bottom out!!!! LOL

Most predicted a year ago that this wasn't going to happen. Some did(few). Seeing the interest rates were so good for a long period of time and our economy was great, a new house was kind of a commodity. They values raised tremendously and the people paid over inflated prices for years. Most could afford a house and the lending institutions made it easy.

One problem was they were approving loans with little or no money down. It takes many years to get any kind of equity out of a home when the first years very little is going to the principle. Now, the price is over inflated with little or no equity. Also, many people refinanced not only to get a lower payment but to erase some debt creating guess what.... No equity! The sins of the past.

Stocks have been over valued for over 10 years. Companies either lied or always gave high projections to raise values. Today, companies sometimes under estimate quarterly or yearly projections to over achieve and this is the way it should be. The economy did so good for a long period dividends were good and stock prices rose and the companies values rose. Heck the New York Yankees are worth over 1 billion dollars. Who woulda thunk! Water is seeking its level in the stock market. It is balancing out.

[Getback]

GHI..... Ben Stein was a real idiot on that video!!!!

I like Ben Stein as an Actor and gameshow host. How he got a gig as a financial expert is way beyond me. I've read some of his stuff and it makes no sense at least not to me.

[sluggish]

I like Ben Stein as an Actor and gameshow host. How he got a gig as a financial expert is way beyond me. I've read some of his stuff and it makes no sense at least not to me.

I believe he was a speech writer and economic advisor for either Reagan or Bush I.

**edit**  He wrote speeches for Nixon and Ford.

[RTHolmes]

...

indeed

[BigPlay]

A couple years ago I was telling family and friends that I thought the economy would just be going down as a result of the corporate attempt to outsource all possible work outside of the country.  It just seemed obvious to me that if companies in this country sent work out, and as a result unemployed the working class, the middle class, the body of our population that spent and bought the most the economy would suffer.  Eventually the people not working, or subsequently underemployed would no longer be able to buy products.  When they stop buying products, the companies who sell those products would find sales dropping.  It becomes a downward spiral, the less they sell, the more they lay off workers, the more out of work, the less being spent.

I am not by any means an economist, I don't even pretend to by wise in the ways of the financial world, but sure seems to me this is the case.  During previous times of economic hardship, wasn't one of the key points to recovery "and provide jobs to the citizens"?  Doing the opposite would seem to have lead us down a bad road economically.   Will any of the greedy selfish corporate CEOs and Washington politicians recognize this and actually do anything to reverse the trend? 

I doubt it.


One reason the jobs are leaving this country other than the obvious ( cheaper wages) is many manufacturing company's experience too many regulations brought on them via the EPA. OSHA,  unions, workman comp fees, disability insurance and so on and so on. Many of these countries that are receiving the outsourced work are destroying their country's enviorment on manufacturing that involves poisonous wastes and hazardous working conditions that would be too expensive here in the states. Take China for example. The country's top 5 rivers are polluted to the max of their current measuring system. They are paying and will continue to pay the price for the lack of these regulations. I live in California and many company's left the state because it's just too expensive to conduct business here. So they moved into states that have cheaper operational costs, insurance, wages. Some of these states have more lax enviormental laws as well. Don't get me wrong there are plenty of CEO's that managed companies right into the ground, the  auto industry being one. Their unions aren't helping their cause . Own and run a company for a year and see for yourself just how difficult government makes it. Obama isn't going to help the issue either. Wait and see how many companies leave the country when he implaments his employment requirements for even the smallest of companies. I think we have seen the last of the great American manufacturing might.

[Stixx]

To be honest I was working 80hr weeks so I wasn't paying attention. 
My company was assured in August that our contracts would be extended for an additional 5 years. 
I said what the heck and bought the truck I've always wanted. 
Four months later we were informed that our contracts were being canceled effective February 1.   
Today, December 17,2008, I was offered my first job since I was laid off. 
Unfortunately it's only temporary until the end of March. 

No. I didn't see this one coming.

[drdeathx]

To be honest I was working 80hr weeks so I wasn't paying attention. 
My company was assured in August that our contracts would be extended for an additional 5 years. 
I said what the heck and bought the truck I've always wanted. 
Four months later we were informed that our contracts were being canceled effective February 1.   
Today, December 17,2008, I was offered my first job since I was laid off. 
Unfortunately it's only temporary until the end of March. 

No. I didn't see this one coming.

Was it a GM, Ford or Dodge.....LOL

[Stixx]

It's a Dodge, and I've had a few interesting conversations with Chrysler Financial.
I've only been late on my payments twice and I'm current into the new year.
One conversation in particular stands out in my memory
The CF collector asked me what I intended to do about my late payment as I was watching
Bob Nardelli on the news during hearings for the first request for a bailout.
"Maybe I'll drive down to DC to see if the taxpayers could lend me a hand!" I replied.