Russia........

[Oleg]

But if Ucraine is not paying and tapping off, it seems to me that Russia has no choice but to shut down. The pipeline AFAIK runs THROUGH Ucraine, so the Russians must shut off at home base. That leaves Europe in the cold.

According to "Gasprom" (russian gas vendor), Ukraine didnt payed for 2008 gas (not fully) and dont want to pay "europe" price in 2009. As result "Gasprom" stop deliver gas for Ukraine but leave Europe transit going. Ukraine start to steal gas from transit pipe ("Gasprom" say he have data from independent auditors), "Gasprom" decrease transit for amount Ukraine took and said Ukraine must return to Europe all they stealed. Then Ukraine shut transit pipe on their side and take all transit gas to themself. "Gasprom" stop transit as it dont reach Europe anyway.

This is official story as I know. Of course, I cannt say is it true or not.

[druski85]

To my knowledge they are, even heard rumors that they are working on it with China...But dont quote me on it!


I apologize for not knowing all the facts before i posted this.  I was unaware that Ukraine was "stealing" the natural gas from Russia.

But still, does anyone for see Russia flexing its Military Muscle in the near future at Ukraine?

As I said earlier Eagle, I don't think it will come to that.  The line which is being shut down not only cuts gas supply to Ukraine, but also Poland and eastern parts of Germany.  (among others)  These countries are already seeing shortages in the range of 10-15%...which may not seem like a lot, but it can get messy quickly.  When this supply gets even lower, they will undoubtedly increase pressure on Ukraine...and seeing as it is a decidedly western looking country I'd imagine they will cave long before things get hairy. 

[KgB]

decidedly western looking country

[druski85]

Well they are more so than their neighbors Kgb

Update = Gas is flowing once again, as of this morning.  EU sent in observers to ensure a fair flow through Ukraine without further interruptions... 
People aren't going to waste time screwing around arguing about gas in the middle of the winter

[Babalonian]

First of all Georgia launched attack first.Casualties weren't even close to current conflict in Gaza which USA seemes to be fine with it.
And secondly Ukraine ows 2 billion dollars for gas to Russia.They should've thought of it before shooting down Russian planes in Georgia.

Russia is in the right on these issues from what I've read up about them.  Russia has just never been gentle about the way it does things though (like shutting off the gas to collect on a bill/debt in the middle of winter).  Though I was surprised that Russia didn't march straight to the capital of Georgia last year after the Georgians poked the giant bear with a stick... but the thought has crossed my mind that the decision to not completely take out Georgia was a move by Russia to pour salt in the wound of the Bush administration (in comparing invasions: Georgia and Russia to Iraq and America).

[KgB]

Russia is in the right on these issues from what I've read up about them.  Russia has just never been gentle about the way it does things though (like shutting off the gas to collect on a bill/debt in the middle of winter).  Though I was surprised that Russia didn't march straight to the capital of Georgia last year after the Georgians poked the giant bear with a stick... but the thought has crossed my mind that the decision to not completely take out Georgia was a move by Russia to pour salt in the wound of the Bush administration (in comparing invasions: Georgia and Russia to Iraq and America).

Nah,Russia is not as strong as it looks.You should've seen footage,interviews from Russian side. It was the same soviet era chaoting warfare.

[EagleEyes]

Does anyone know the casualty rates from the war in Georgia?