If the Taliban pull a Tet Offensive in Pakistan

[killjoy1]

This is purely a strategic discussion.  Was is possible?  What is probable?

If the Taliban pull a Tet Offensive in Pakistan and capture nukes, what will the US response be? 

[Dago]

A Tet Offensive?

I don't think so. 

[BaDkaRmA158Th]

Yeah we didn't think so either.



Till it happend.

[Simaril]

From my understanding of the military consequences, the Tet offensive was as a failure. The North Vietnamese lost tremendous materiel and manpower for little lasting gain....

The only way the Tet succeeded was politically, because it had definite shock value and was heavily televised. The US population and political leadership was so discouraged by the event that it became a watershed event for a country tired of inconclusive warfare.

In essence, from a purely military standpoint the Tet offensive worked a lot like the Ardennes Offensive of 1944 -- it got fixed assets out into the open so that superior firepower could be brought to bear. There will almost always be a delay in amassing those superior defending forces, which gives an initial impression of offensive success even when their eventual defeat is certain. In reality, those German assets would have cost far more time and casualties to defeat had they remained on the defensive.


In that light, a Taliban Tet would only be dangerous to the degree that the Pakistani forces are truly outmatched (in materiel or espirit).

[Ack-Ack]

One of the other factors is that the Pakistani army is organized, equipped and trained to fight a conventional war with India, which is why the majority of its forces is located on the eastern area of the country.  Also, the Pakistani army is not trained in counter-insurgency warfare.  So far, the majority of the Pakistani forces that have been fighting in the western tribal zones have been largely made up of their paramilitary forces.  I think when the Taliban started to move out of the Swat region and closed within 60 miles of Islamabad and declared that their intentions was to overthrow the government and install their brand of Islam, it was kick in the pants to the Pakistani military and population.  I think it was just recently that the Pakistani military has requested assistance in form of counter-insurgency training, helicopters and night vision equipment.


ack-ack

[Ghosth]

I agree with AckAck, but I think its going to be too little too late.

Taliban are in gear, and rolling, sucking up terrain as fast as they can handle it.
60 miles even in that terrain is 2 or 3 hours, you can move a lot of people over that ground in a day.

I suspect some of this has been setup by those on the inside of the current government over there. In the armed forces for sure.
We'll wake up one of these mornings to a change in government. And be persona non grata over there.

[killjoy1]

The point is, "What if the Taliban capture a nuke stockpile?" and "What if the Taliban can overthrow the government?" 

What will be the US response? 

I don't think the US can respond.  Where would it stage any response?  Diego Garcia?  India?  For that matter what would India do?  Does anyone think India would allow the Taliban to have their finger on Pakistan nukes? 

If I were the Taliban, I would push on the capital to draw off troops from defending the army bases guarding the nukes and set up a few strikes to try and nab a nuke or two. 

I guess the point of all this is a war games scenario.  What if? 

How well provisioned and armed are the Taliban?  Nobody is confident in Pakistan's army that I know of.  Anecdotal evidence from army friends in Iraq says working equipment is in short supply there.  From their point of view, there's no new equipment and what they have is falling apart. 

Does the US have the ability to respond to a nuke threat in Pakistan?  How is our air support? 

Interesting questions.

[hlbly]

As far as nukes go . Delivery systems are what separate the big boys from the rest .

[Delirium]

The Tet Offensive wasn't successful, it was the media that gave the impression it was and even further swayed the US citizens against continued involvement in Vietnam.

So, it is an easy answer... if the media covers the defeats in Afghanistan/Pakistan, no matter how small, it will give the combatants over there just what they need; publicity.

As for the militants being able to take control of the nukes in that country, I don't think that would be a possible goal unless it was via a revolution from within Pakistan with the same core beliefs.

edit: it looks like Simaril beat me to the argument with the same points.

[AWwrgwy]

The point is, "What if the Taliban capture a nuke stockpile?" and "What if the Taliban can overthrow the government?" 

What will be the US response? 

I don't think the US can respond.  Where would it stage any response?  Diego Garcia?  India?  For that matter what would India do?  Does anyone think India would allow the Taliban to have their finger on Pakistan nukes? 

Interesting questions.

Afganistan?


wrongway

[TOMCAT21]

the response in a way is already underway to the current situation...with the drawdown in Iraq ..we are shifting more troops to afghanistan......unfortunatel y Pakistan's own political woes are inhibiting it from doing much of anything... india and pakistan are mortal enemies anyway but I am pretty damn sure that India is watching ...we can stage from kuwait...afghanistan...i hope i answered some of what your seeking..

[Serenity]

I don't think the US can respond.  Where would it stage any response?  Diego Garcia?  India?   

How is our air support? 

Arc Light? Strategic bombing FTW! (It would never happen again, but I can dream, can't I?)

[cpxxx]

I think the threat is exaggerated. Remember the Taliban are essentially equipped with Aks and RPGs. Whether or not the the Pakistan army are ill equipped or not. They still outgun the Taliban significantly. On top of that, once they move out of their tribal territories any local support they depend on will evaporate. In some ways this could be a good thing. The Taliban can overreach themselves, be fixed and destroyed. Much like the Viet Cong after Tet. The NVA took on the bulk of the fighting after '68. Guerrilla warfare only works as long as the conventional forces can't find you.

[Ghosth]

If the Taliban get ahold of a nuke, and the codes to make it operable, they don't need delivery systems.

They can throw it in the back of a truck, drive it into the center of Kabaul and leave.

Kaboom! Change of government, huge warning to what happens to anyone who doesn't follow the Taliban.

Would India at that point make the move to take some territory for herself?
Would the Taliban care?

[Ack-Ack]

I think the threat is exaggerated. Remember the Taliban are essentially equipped with Aks and RPGs. Whether or not the the Pakistan army are ill equipped or not. They still outgun the Taliban significantly. On top of that, once they move out of their tribal territories any local support they depend on will evaporate. In some ways this could be a good thing. The Taliban can overreach themselves, be fixed and destroyed. Much like the Viet Cong after Tet. The NVA took on the bulk of the fighting after '68. Guerrilla warfare only works as long as the conventional forces can't find you.

The problem is that the Pakistani army is ill-trained and equipped to fight a counter-insurgency, let alone the kind that would be similiar to the one we faced in Iraq.  They are also hesitant to remove the bulk of their army from the eastern borders with India.  We shall see though, the Pakistanis are suppposedly in an offensive in the Swat Valley. 


ack-ack