If the Taliban pull a Tet Offensive in Pakistan

[AKHog]

The use of a nuke is being way over simplified here.

I'm no expert, but I do know its not a matter of punching in a code and picking a count down like in the movies.

Also Pakistan has said it does not keep its warheads near delivery systems. The DoD seems to agree based on its 'observations'. It also seems Pakistan only has enough weapons grade plutonium for a few warheads, again probably separate or at least in an unassembled state from the warhead.

So its not like the Taliban is going to be able to capture a facility with a working nuke ready to go inside.

It would likely take a lab environment with highly trained personal to do the final assembly and ready the warhead. The again it would take highly trained personal using specialized equipment to successfully detonate the weapon.

The chances of the Taliban getting parts of a warhead, and the chances of them actually detonating it with any success in a nuclear sense are magnitudes apart.

[Yeager]

Need to support the re-installation of a ruthless secular dictator in Pakistan who will eliminate the taliban and tell the tribal leaders they will uphold Pakistani rule of law or be put to sleep permanently.  Cannot be soft with those types, they are like vicious dogs.  Kick the hell out of them and they will obey you as master, otherwise they will attack and bite you till you retreat or die.

[Tr1gg22]

no IMO

[SKJohn]

You guys are all missing the most important point:

It is impossible for the Taliban to pull a Tet Offensive in Pakistan for the simple reason that Tet is the Vietnamese New Year celebration, and is not celebrated in Pakistan.  Without Tet - there can be no Tet Offensive.

[killjoy1]

In retrospect, I should not of mentioned Tet.  Too late to take it back.

Good comments though.

It's easy to forget how complicated a nuke is.  If the Taliban ever got their hands on one, they still would have to figure out how to detonate it.  Haul it to Tehran?  Make a deal with Tehran for technicians?  Kidnap Pakistani techs and make them show you how? 

Taliban and Nuke is not a pretty picture any way you look at it. 

The only way they get access to nukes and delivery systems is by a coup.  I don't have a feel for how stable and capable the present government is.  I've heard that the Generals are US trained but that was decades ago.  None of the younger officers and troops are US trained. 

[Dago]

I think a few forget the differances between the NVA, Viet Cong, and the Taliban.  Then consider the support each received, and from where.

Then, as previously pointed out, the Tet Offensive was a huge tactical loss, bordering on disaster militarily for the Viet Cong.  It was only because of the US press that it became a political victory.

That's a lesson forgotten, or purposely ignored by organizations like the New York Times. 

Personally I take delight in reading of the NYT financial problems.  I strongly hope they fold up.

[Rich46yo]

It happened before in Iran and it could happen even easier in Pakistan. This is a real time bomb waiting to go off.

[Angus]

Viet cong and talibans as an offensive foe compare as well as a jungle and a desert...ehmmm.

[Rich46yo]

Two years of their charm offensive. http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/attacks-2001-2003.htm

Imagine this crew with nukes, IRBMs, nuclear tipped cruise missiles, nuclear armed F-16s and Mirages, advanced SSKs. http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Pakistan/index.html http://www.nti.org/db/submarines/index.html

[Ack-Ack]

Are the Pakistani's nuke stockpile in a centralized location or spread out?


ack-ack

[AKHog]

Are the Pakistani's nuke stockpile in a centralized location or spread out?


ack-ack

Spread out, according to Pakistan and verified by DoD observers. Not only are they spread out, but the components that are kept together are supposedly unassembled. Again, the DoD seems to concur.

[JunkyII]

As far as nukes go . Delivery systems are what separate the big boys from the rest .

Yea this is the hard part, look at N Koreas recent missle launch

[BaDkaRmA158Th]

Question is now, will china or korea give them the blue print to that launch system.Wouldnt that add more back braking pressure to every western nation if achmeds runing around with nukes?


Ah communism helping terrorest, only in my world i guess. Wishful thinkin'?


Achmed & ivan sittin' in a tree, k. i. s. s. i. n. g...

[Maverick]

Pakistan would not have the same media impact for a tet style offensive. Baghdad on the other hand might do it if it was done right about the time, already announced, of the US withdrawal.

Pakistan does have the issue of obtaining multiple nuclear weapons and that would go a LONG way to increasing the threat of a terrorist organization. Delivery could be as simple as a conex box on a container ship in a busy harbor. Major impact, major devastation and fallout for lasting effect. Very very easy to do and no ballistic shield  to protect against it.

[Simaril]

Depressing as it sounds, we might be best off to not try to solve this one. There are limits to power projection, and in an area where significant portions of the population thinks the US has imperialistic (if not outright cultural genocidal) aims it's far too easy to make things worse instead of better.

Somtimes "doing something" can make a situation worse.