Author Topic: Whistle blowing on Global Warming  (Read 117239 times)

Offline FireDrgn

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1275 on: January 29, 2010, 03:39:47 PM »
Should we see temps double the normal then? We have man made GW  and now the Sun  so the numbers should really be double?
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Offline Anaxogoras

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1276 on: January 29, 2010, 03:46:38 PM »
Should we see temps double the normal then? We have man made GW  and now the Sun  so the numbers should really be double?


No.  AGW predicts that temperatures will increase at slightly a greater rate than they would during a natural warming cycle.  We're talking fractions of a degree C.

edit for spelling
« Last Edit: January 29, 2010, 04:23:13 PM by Anaxogoras »
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Offline FireDrgn

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1277 on: January 29, 2010, 05:43:06 PM »
Do we have a guess at the fraction ? Are we talking 1/100 or 1/2 of a degree?
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Offline CAP1

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1278 on: January 29, 2010, 06:09:17 PM »
WE cooled, we warmed, we cooled, we remained steady, we cooled, we warmed, we cooled, now we're gonna warm again.
 cycles.
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Offline Anaxogoras

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1279 on: January 29, 2010, 06:56:49 PM »
Do we have a guess at the fraction ? Are we talking 1/100 or 1/2 of a degree?

I wouldn't know.  But I would guess that the increase in the rate of temperature increase per year compared to a standard warming cycle would be somewhere between those two fractions you give above, depending on your latitude.
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Offline Penguin

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1280 on: January 30, 2010, 05:53:54 PM »
I wouldn't know.  But I would guess that the increase in the rate of temperature increase per year compared to a standard warming cycle would be somewhere between those two fractions you give above, depending on your latitude.

Considering that the amount of numbers is infinite, that's a wide chasm! :eek: 

So somewhere between .5 and .01, wow, that's big even if you stop at adding .0001!

 :lol All in good fun, keep the thread strong guys!

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Offline CAP1

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1281 on: January 30, 2010, 09:26:30 PM »
http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/heavy-snow-freezing-rain-hits-southeastern-us/19338420?icid=main|main|dl1|link2|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aolnews.com%2Fnation%2Farticle%2Fheavy-snow-freezing-rain-hits-southeastern-us%2F19338420

this kind of stuff is pretty much normal every few years.....and as i suspected(bought a new snow blower in november), we're getting it.

 so..........why exactly is it again, that we all should be worried?
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Offline Angus

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1282 on: January 31, 2010, 04:06:05 AM »
The difference between snow and rain is only a degree. And when it is not snowing and the sky is clear, it would be colder. So snow is not a very good measure on temperature. Neither are some smaller pockets of the world.
Anyway, I'll tell you where it is warm now, and of all places in the close vicinity of a massive glacier (Greenland) which basically "holds" the temp low, like your room was filled with Icecubes.
In Narsassuaq there is 13+ and the forecast is warm as long as can be seen.
Same goes with Nuuk, and in Kangerlussuaq which normally has -20 at this time of year it is now +5
Ponder on that....
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline MORAY37

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1283 on: January 31, 2010, 09:31:44 AM »
http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/heavy-snow-freezing-rain-hits-southeastern-us/19338420?icid=main|main|dl1|link2|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aolnews.com%2Fnation%2Farticle%2Fheavy-snow-freezing-rain-hits-southeastern-us%2F19338420

this kind of stuff is pretty much normal every few years.....and as i suspected(bought a new snow blower in november), we're getting it.

 so..........why exactly is it again, that we all should be worried?

The fact you're basing your entire opinion solely off the weather in your neighborhood....  That's why I'm worried, to be honest.  The general public does not think much further than that, unfortunately, and also doesn't realize that weather isn't climate.  I'm not trying to insult you CAP, it is just that your view is very myopic in this example.  You consistently post about the weather in your area....again, not climate.

In a cruel twist of fate, the UK and the US both had deep cold snaps this winter.  Meanwhile, most of the rest of the world is much warmer. The Arctic is warmer still than it was.  Alaska had a very unseasonably warm winter.   The entire southern hemisphere has baked through summer.

But, considering global policy originates in the UK and US, there will be a serious push by the general uneducated masses to reject AGW, all due to a cold winter.  In short, most of the voter's decision is based on weather they experienced and not upon the climate of the biomes.  Whether or not AGW proves true or proves false, basing one's decision on this winter is completely illogical.  And, from what I've seen from the general public where I live, that is exactly what has happened.

But, again, I stand by my own opinion.  Unless someone discovers a feedback inhibitor in the climate system, or a negative feedback loop,  we're already along for the ride.  Even if we stopped our ways in a drastic manner, we're locked in for massive issues.  Our population needs to be culled anyway, in my estimation.  That's the cold, impartial scientist in me, though.  I fully don't expect our species to change until it is almost too late in any case...we use our large brains to explain off the warning signs, instead of analyze them.  In any case, I will live out my life in temperatures only marginally higher than optimum, and will not see the collapse of the ecosystems from top-down and bottom-up pressures, along with wildly erratic climatology.  My great grand children will live and die in that sorrowful time.

The belief that there isn't a problem if every year isn't warmer than the last is dead wrong.  This is where the term "Global Warming" went wrong.. it gives a certain expectation by definition, and the term is subsequently negated by a cold year amongst warm ones. 

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Offline MORAY37

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1284 on: January 31, 2010, 09:44:41 AM »


The media feed on such crap like flies on shee(i)t. Dis-informing the public is an art form now. I remember about two years ago a big headline about research revealing that proximity to certain factories DOUBLES(!) the chances to develop some kind of tumor. Sounds scary indeed. But when you check the absolute numbers (not quoted in the media report of course), it increased it from 1/80,000 to 1/40,000. Better not leave the house then, it is not safe anymore.


I don't understand that if you understand sigma plots, that you wouldn't think that a statistical two-fold increase is significant.  What the media does may be inflammatory and excessive(which is why I don't watch American media), but isn't the underlying data secure and significant, at least in this case.?


Your position is curious and flawed, and surprisingly affected by "simple numbers in the thousands".  Whether 1/40,000 is an acceptable risk or not doesn't change the statistical significance of a doubling of tumor incidence proximal to certain chemicals.  One is based on opinion..."1/40,000 is acceptable to me, even if the norm is 1/80,000" and one is based on statistical fact "there is a doubling of incidence of X tumor development proximal to Y factory".

For someone who says they are involved in science in some way (at least I think you have, in past threads, though I could be wrong), your data analysis is troubling and biased.  

If you are a scientist....please send me some of your papers.  It would be a thrill to read them. 
« Last Edit: January 31, 2010, 09:55:02 AM by MORAY37 »
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Offline MORAY37

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1285 on: January 31, 2010, 10:19:07 AM »
Well Bud, lets look at a chart from the same document you quoted, Okay?

(Image removed from quote.)

I think it is self-explanatory.

But hey, lets stop quibbling over silly things. These kind of arguments serve no useful purpose. No one really cares one way or the other anyway. I think we can both find more useful things to discuss. Agree?

Let's talks Marine Biology, a topic of which I am largely ignorant. Ignorant, but not disinterested.

Do you recognize this gentleman?

(Image removed from quote.)

(Image removed from quote.)

His name is Steve Resler. Steve has held various positions related to marine biology. He holds several degrees in Marine science and environmental science. His positions have included Senior Marine Resources Technician, Environmental Analyst, Bay Constable, Harbormaster. Later, he moved up to Deputy Bureau Chief, NY Dept of State - Coastal Management Program. After 35 years, he recently retired and started his own marine field research consulting business, "InnerSpace Scientific Diving". Steve is nationally known and highly respected. He's a guy you may want to know.

Here's his resume on LinkedIn:
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/steven-resler/17/b5/918

Steve and I went to high school together. We've managed to stay in touch over the intervening 40 years. Great guy, great marine researcher. Should you have any interest in connecting with Steve, shoot me a PM and I'll give him a heads-up.


My regards

Widewing



Yes, Wide, I've heard of him.  Unless I am off, I think he had a lot to do with NOAA's sci-diver program, from inception. I could be wrong though, without doing a bit of digging.

I appreciate the heads up. I will keep it in mind.  I would have replied sooner, but had multiple days in the field and pulled two all nighters in the lab this week...., so I've been MIA from the bbs and game, understandably.

 :salute
« Last Edit: January 31, 2010, 10:21:33 AM by MORAY37 »
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Offline CAP1

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1286 on: January 31, 2010, 10:20:54 AM »
The fact you're basing your entire opinion solely off the weather in your neighborhood....  That's why I'm worried, to be honest.  The general public does not think much further than that, unfortunately, and also doesn't realize that weather isn't climate.  I'm not trying to insult you CAP, it is just that your view is very myopic in this example.  You consistently post about the weather in your area....again, not climate.

In a cruel twist of fate, the UK and the US both had deep cold snaps this winter.  Meanwhile, most of the rest of the world is much warmer. The Arctic is warmer still than it was.  Alaska had a very unseasonably warm winter.   The entire southern hemisphere has baked through summer.

But, considering global policy originates in the UK and US, there will be a serious push by the general uneducated masses to reject AGW, all due to a cold winter.  In short, most of the voter's decision is based on weather they experienced and not upon the climate of the biomes.  Whether or not AGW proves true or proves false, basing one's decision on this winter is completely illogical.  And, from what I've seen from the general public where I live, that is exactly what has happened.

But, again, I stand by my own opinion.  Unless someone discovers a feedback inhibitor in the climate system, or a negative feedback loop,  we're already along for the ride.  Even if we stopped our ways in a drastic manner, we're locked in for massive issues.  Our population needs to be culled anyway, in my estimation.  That's the cold, impartial scientist in me, though.  I fully don't expect our species to change until it is almost too late in any case...we use our large brains to explain off the warning signs, instead of analyze them.  In any case, I will live out my life in temperatures only marginally higher than optimum, and will not see the collapse of the ecosystems from top-down and bottom-up pressures, along with wildly erratic climatology.  My great grand children will live and die in that sorrowful time.

The belief that there isn't a problem if every year isn't warmer than the last is dead wrong.  This is where the term "Global Warming" went wrong.. it gives a certain expectation by definition, and the term is subsequently negated by a cold year amongst warm ones. 



my point was/is, though, that this is not abnormal. not just in my area of the us.....but even the patterns the weather comes from.

 i also do believe the weather is indeed the climate. the thousands(or however many there are) of smaller weather systems come together to form the climate.
 i don't know about the uk, as i haven't lived there, or followed its weather too closley......but i've been told there used to be snow there a lot too.

 i do agree that other areas are warmer, while the currently cold areas are cold...but that is yet another point. as some areas cool off, others warm up. eventually those areas will cool off, while the currently cool areas warm up.

 it's all cyclic.
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Offline MORAY37

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1287 on: January 31, 2010, 10:27:59 AM »


 it's all cyclic.

The problem with this ideology is that it is easy to explain any and all effects, without implied reason.

Yes there are cycles, and what has been repeatedly bashing you over the head, is that the observed trends aren't within those understood "cycles".  So, either there is a new "cycle" that hasn't been uncovered over the last million years of understood climate shifts.....or....the system changed.

 Being half-right on principle doesn't make you correct overall.
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Offline MORAY37

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1288 on: January 31, 2010, 10:32:25 AM »
my point was/is, though, that this is not abnormal. not just in my area of the us.....but even the patterns the weather comes from.

 i also do believe the weather is indeed the climate.

Quote
Climate is the average weather pattern in a place over many years

Quote
Weather is the mix of events that happen each day in our atmosphere including temperature, rainfall and humidity.

http://eo.ucar.edu/basics/

NOT THE SAME.
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Whistle blowing on Global Warming
« Reply #1289 on: January 31, 2010, 12:33:43 PM »
The problem with this ideology is that it is easy to explain any and all effects, without implied reason.

Yes there are cycles, and what has been repeatedly bashing you over the head, is that the observed trends aren't within those understood "cycles".  So, either there is a new "cycle" that hasn't been uncovered over the last million years of understood climate shifts.....or....the system changed.

 Being half-right on principle doesn't make you correct overall.


Well, it seems that the people who "understand" these cycles and the simulation software they use to predict them failed to predict the flattening of the warming trend over the last decade.  Nor can they now conclusively explain it as noted in the leaked emails from the CRU conspirators. 

Could we agree that these cycles are not completely understood yet, much less their fundamental cause?  Could we agree that there certainly is not overwhelming concensus of the entire scientific community that Man is the primary cause of any recent warming ?  Could we agree that the issue is not completely settled and it would be false to say "the debate is over"?



Regards,
Wab













Toxic, psychotic, self-aggrandizing drama queens simply aren't worth me spending my time on.