The only way a "New Players Arena" could possibly help new players would be if it made the training arena redundant.
The newbie arena would be different because there real action and competition in it, the training arena doesn't.
[Disclamer] My suggestion adresses only my thoughts on New player retention. Not all retention of all players. It is not related or in conflict, or a counterpoint to split arenas.
This game is very very difficult to play. Having some measure of success at playing it is a big motivating factor, and at some point required for the person to stay on. The key question is whether they will get frustrated before they get good. I'm suggesting that throwing them in with the experts may increase the rate at which they learn [good thing], but it may increase the rate at which they get frustrated much faster[bad thing].
In the training arena there's no plane damage, no score and no combat unless you arrange it with someone. It's great for Training, but that's not the same a plying so it's less fun. The
success is missing.
In the Da you're back in with experts wiping the floor with you. Agian no
success.
In a nubie arena is real combat like the MA but with new pilots, so when I guy gets on your six...guess what he might miss and you might live long enough to figure out how to turn the tables....where of course you will miss, at least for a while.
As for it being only Nubie...not so. There are plenty or great folks in the AH community that teach as well as they fly. As a first cut I'd set it up like this....
Three air fields [Knit, Bish, Rook] in a small triangle like WWI
Admission would be based on the following criteria
1) flight time in hours
2) K/D
3) hit percentage
4) total kills
5) sorties landed
6) crashes that are not due to plane damage
7) damage points.
These criteria would be added up to a total score. There would be two score criteria, one based on MA scores that you would be required to be below to get in to the newbie arena, and One based on Newbie arena scores that would get you locked out. [limits to be determined by analysis of current and future new player data.]
Once you qualify out of the Newbie arena, there's no going back.
If you haven't qualified out, and your score is low enough in the MA you can get access until you qualify out.
Anyone can fly in the MA anytime they want.
Veteran players intersted in flying in the Newbie arena for the purpose of mentoring and adding experience to the mix could sign up for access. Their access would be granted and monitored based on behavior. There's hundreds of folks I reccommend. Sorry, Kazaa you and your Tempy of death are not allowed. Nor would I [swear to much, especially when the newbs started killing me in big numbers] But the folks that run the scenarios, Delirium, Dedalos, Betty, and many many others that always fly with no drama, and are quick to lend advice and helping hand would be the model.
Access to Newbie arena controlled by score criteria, and special access as described above.
If I recall Snailmans data properly, a 1.0 K/d is top 25%. That indicates a very right shifted success distribution. The bottom 25% was marked by a K/D of [aprox] 0.1 or something very low. An analysis of the kills/sortie, points/sortie, etc versus retention and subscription length would reveal if folks were quitting because they were getting hammered. In other words Time-to-frustration < Time-to-success. I don't have access to that data so I can't know if this a problem.
From my experience, I think it might be. If so I think an arena where you have a chance at success while learning would help in "new" player retention.