So now the chat buffer is the reason.
You say that as though it is something new. It isn't new. It is the reason HTC has given the whole time. I was being more specific in example that HTC ever is though.
HTC has said that new player retention basically ceases once arena population reaches a certain point. They have said that arena populations of 500, 600 or even 800 are toxic. Why would you think those things are?
I will admit that I could be wrong, but I can't imagine anything else that would be stopping growth. New players log in and see a bunch of love muffines screaming at each other about politics or collisions or what needs to be done to win the war or having killed the only good fight and the chat buff moving too fast to get help, or even effectively put help given to use and it turns them off the game, makes it more frustrating that it already is. Lets face it, brand new players have an uphill struggle as it is with them basically being cannon fodder, confronting them with a hostile environment, not just gamewise, but socially as well can't do anything good for encouraging people to subscribe.