That means that if Intel could use GaAs right now with the P4 design 10Ghz would probably be attainable today.
Sorry bloom... that's just not true. You are focussing too much on one aspect and not really figuring in the rest. Each processor is basically two sections.. the top end (metal lines and interconnects) and the transistors. In one area, we'd see a definate improvement... enough to totally melt the other area.
The 3.6GHz is going to be achieved on bare Si. I do know that GaAs and SOI are being looked at, but the cost per unit involved with each goes up dramatically... especially on 12" wafers. I'm not sure if much GaAs processing is going on above 6" right now. Triquent is one of the main movers in this area and they are still on 4" wafers.
At this point I think Gordon Moore's statement will probably hold true for another 18 months, after that we'll just have to wait and see what happens. Once we do find out how to use GaAs (or SiC) we can expect clock speeds to take off once again.
LOL! People have been saying that about Moore's law for 15 years now
Its our job to keep proving Dr. Moore right... and we do it well
And I don't necesserily know that your two options for improving speed are really the only path. I do believe that after 10GHz, we'll have to go in a completely different direction... but I'm pretty sure nobody has any idea what that is right now. We have several things we're looking at, but the above are only two of them... there are many more other options to explore.
DejaVu, I was wondering how many Angstroms thick and the K' values for the dielectrics you were working with are? If it's not a trade secret that is... I'm just curious to do some spice simulation runs to see what's possible.
The current process of record (data is published) runs the ILD <inter layer dielectric> anywhere from 1.2um to 3um with an effective K value somewhere around 3.6. I can't really say what K value we're working on for future processes... but it considerably less than the above mentioned.
Besides.. in addition to the k and thickness, you'd have to know the line pitch and via height. Remember, with copper we use a dual damazine process where we etch the vias, then we etch trenches and fill the whole thing in with copper. That means the ILD thickness is the height of one whole via/metal layer as opposed to being the distance between two metal layers.
AKDejaVu