Her name's irene and she means business

[icepac]

Been prepping all weekend and today but it looks like florida might dodge this bullet because it is projected to be of category 4 strength as it passes by.

Sadly, it looks like the carolinas are in for a strong category 3 making landfall.

[Killer91]

Been watching this one since it was Invest 97. Florida may be off the hook this time but I certainly wouldn't let my guard down. The latest model runs are not looking good for the Carolinas or the Bahamas. Cat 4 storm with winds near 135mph as it passes over the Bahamas and a cat 3 storm at landfall in either south or north Carolina. Not a good situation for the SE states right now.

[Tac]

FL is not off the hook until it passes FL. We've had hurricanes that were off the coast when they suddenly stopped, did a 90 degree turn and went right through FL.

Last one like that only gave us 4 hours warning to board up before it hit us.

[Beefcake]

We've had almost no rain for the last month in our area of Virginia that we'd almost welcome a hurricane, that is if we could get rid of the wind.

[rpm]

Weatherunderground tracking

[Maverick]

Tracking projections are only guesses. Like it was said above, until it has totally passed you and dissipated don't think the threat is over. I'm in Louisiana and I'm watching it in case it takes a hard left turn and heads for our RV. 

[eagl]

Hmmm I'm supposed to be flying in to Baltimore from Germany on the 27th, and then out to TX on the 28th...  I hope the hurricane is still south or I'll be late getting home from my deployment. 

[grizz441]

Tracking projections are only guesses.

They're much more than guesses. 

[Bodhi]

They're much more than guesses. 

They are guesses.  Educated guesses, but they are still guesses.

[streek]

they are guesses

[grizz441]

They are guesses.  Educated guesses, but they are still guesses.

I give them much more credit than that.  Like when they say it's 80% change of rain.  Is that a "guess" since there is a chance it will not rain?

The amount of differential math and the number of weather related parameters in these weather models is mind boggling.  Predictions are based upon data and "most likely scenarios".  That is not even in the same ballpark as a "guess".  Of course, when the hurricane is many days out, minor differences in reality and the models will change its target hit spot more drastically, but they still always have a good model as to how the system is going to behave and where it will want to move towards, and as it gets close, really zero in its exact path.

[Selino631]

Hmmm I'm supposed to be flying in to Baltimore from Germany on the 27th, and then out to TX on the 28th...  I hope the hurricane is still south or I'll be late getting home from my deployment.  

lol going home on R&R too? im about 5 days behind u


beefcake what part u from? im from Winchester

[ozrocker]

Looks like the current path skirts Mid-Atlantic, NE as well.


                                                                                                                                    Oz

[crazyivan]

http://youtu.be/cBSv8Y-Gm-8 Goodnight Irene

Saturday evening into Sunday is the projected time around  DC/Baltimore area.

Strong winds, flooding,and no power wooooooooooooo woooooooooo.

[allaire]

Here's a picture from the weather channel of a track model for Irene.  Notice all of the possible tracks?  Meteorology like most all other science is down with educated guesses.  The more data they have the better the guesses.

Sitehttp://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/spec_floater10_large.html