Author Topic: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown  (Read 1282 times)

Offline GScholz

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2012, 09:30:06 AM »
If you consider all the people who have died in mining accidents and from coal-related illness then he's probably right. Oil production related deaths and health effects aren't much better.
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Offline VonMessa

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2012, 09:43:59 AM »
There isn't anything in it I didn't know, since the Japanese press hasn't exactly ignored that entire event...  :lol Being 90 miles from the plant make me an above-average interested observer.

Only a few comments:
I think most people would say that Ex-PM Kan was forced to resign because the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) twisted as much as possible to try to regain power, since Kan broke their 60 year stranglehold on the government prior to the quake. Politicians will lie, steal, scheme and stoop lower that normal humans to maintain or gain power.

When people criticize him, saying he downplayed the danger, I wonder what I (or you) would do if we were in the job? It's a tough call. Evacuating the entire Kanto Plain would be like trying to evacuate the entire population of California, Oregon and Washington state. That's a lot of people. Would you want to incite panic? Would you make that call?

This is ongoing. It is not something that's over just because it isn't on the news anymore. Workers still have to be rotated through the plant for the cleanup and it will continue for decades. That is some extraordinary conviction and perseverance. Disposal and/or decontamination of continuously leaking, radioactive cooling water is a continuing problem. Storage of the massive amounts of water being used is a significant logistics problem. Almost no one realizes how big the scale is of the continuing operation there. There are new challenges and problems that have to be solved every day.

The continuing economic nightmare from the tsunami is another topic.

A big lesson that should have been learned from this, in my opinion, is this:
Non engineers should not be leaders of utilities (like TEPCO), or businesses that are based on technology. The TEPCO president at the time came to power as a pedantic cost-cutter with no technical background to appreciate the true risks of his actions. Ironically, he had been the leader of the risk management committee. Maybe it's more like a dark comedy...

I edited this to add one more comment: I'm really tired of it all. I can't imagine how hard it must be on the people working at the plant every day.

"I asked them to do a simulation.  The worst case was an evacuation for 120 to 190 miles around the plant"

I bet you were, Rolex...


Edit:  Sounds like Jeep is the same in English and Japanese  :)
« Last Edit: November 21, 2012, 09:46:55 AM by VonMessa »
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Offline ghi

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2012, 10:24:16 AM »
 I was listening this radio show with physicist/ professor Michio Kaku, Monday evening on Coast to Coast AM; :noid . This guy was on CNN, Fox many times over past years, warning about the vulnerability of the power grid vs solar flare; they asked  the government again for funding to reinforce the power grid ,satelites and most important the nuclear power stations against solar flare and were rejected.
 This is 2 hours show, just found it posted from Tube;  from video time 00.10.50 for about 10 min, are discussing about this subject;   
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73CbSfgcKUE



Offline Motherland

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2012, 10:42:34 AM »
If you consider all the people who have died in mining accidents and from coal-related illness then he's probably right. Oil production related deaths and health effects aren't much better.
Even freak accidents with 'green' energy sources have killed more people weighted to the energy gotten in return.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/

The point is that no form of getting energy is completely safe, and, despite all of the attention everything nuclear gets, nuclear power is the safest.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2012, 11:00:19 AM by Motherland »

Offline pembquist

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2012, 02:30:45 PM »
"nuclear power is the safest" I am not sure that I come to the same conclusion. I remember reading in Forbes about a promising new technology whereby you could reintegrate the exhaust from carbon based power plants thereby eliminating their carbon emissions. Since I don't believe in perpetual motion I'm am now predisposed to being highly skeptical of anything in that magazine that purports to be science based. That said I take the point that there are quite a few externals to any power generation technology and that a superficial examination can be misleading.

Less deaths per kilowatt is too much of a bumper sticker for me. What bothers me is that a competent technological culture like Japan's was unable to prevent a meltdown and only very luckily did not have a fuel fire which would have resulted in a much bigger exclusion zone than now exists. As much as this seems like a technological problem that is fixable with engineering I think it is in reality a political and economic problem and that is what makes it so dangerous.

From a pure engineering perspective nuclear energy might well be "clean, safe, to cheap to meter" but I don't think it has been in reality and I don't think it can be.  My opinion doesn't really matter, China is building the equivalent of 2 500 megawatt coal plants a week, and is planning on 40 gigawatts of nuclear by 2015. I hope your right that new designs are inherently safe, but ask yourself; what else would somebody whose career or investment depended on building one say?


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Offline warhed

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2012, 04:06:15 PM »
"nuclear power is the safest" I am not sure that I come to the same conclusion. I remember reading in Forbes about a promising new technology whereby you could reintegrate the exhaust from carbon based power plants thereby eliminating their carbon emissions. Since I don't believe in perpetual motion I'm am now predisposed to being highly skeptical of anything in that magazine that purports to be science based. That said I take the point that there are quite a few externals to any power generation technology and that a superficial examination can be misleading.

Less deaths per kilowatt is too much of a bumper sticker for me. What bothers me is that a competent technological culture like Japan's was unable to prevent a meltdown and only very luckily did not have a fuel fire which would have resulted in a much bigger exclusion zone than now exists. As much as this seems like a technological problem that is fixable with engineering I think it is in reality a political and economic problem and that is what makes it so dangerous.

From a pure engineering perspective nuclear energy might well be "clean, safe, to cheap to meter" but I don't think it has been in reality and I don't think it can be.  My opinion doesn't really matter, China is building the equivalent of 2 500 megawatt coal plants a week, and is planning on 40 gigawatts of nuclear by 2015. I hope your right that new designs are inherently safe, but ask yourself; what else would somebody whose career or investment depended on building one say?




But it is the safest, regardless of how that makes you feel.  Also, considering the two big boys on the block are nuclear and coal, compare the two together, and nuclear becomes even a better option.  I like the idea of, "I remember reading in Forbes about a promising new technology whereby you could reintegrate the exhaust from carbon based power plants thereby eliminating their carbon emissions."  I am sure there are perfectly clean and perfectly safe power production methods.  I'm also 100% sure none of them exist yet.  What does exist now?  An ever increasing demand for power.  In the U.S., we are approaching a time when our demand is going to be greater than our supply.  Which will leave you the option of more nukes, or more coal plants.  I've worked in a nuclear plant, I've been in a coal plant.  I can tell you first hand which one is cleaner and safer.  I can also tell you which one I would rather have a house near, and that would be nuclear, which I do live within 5 miles of.  Wind and solar are great, but they will never replace nuclear or coal, they will only supplement it.  So between nuclear and coal, I'll choose the proven safer one.

Energy Source              Death Rate (deaths per TWh)

Coal (elect, heat,cook –world avg) 100 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)
Coal electricity – world avg        60 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity)
Coal (elect,heat,cook)– China      170
Coal electricity-  China            90
Coal – USA                          15
Oil                                 36  (36% of world energy)
Natural Gas                          4  (21% of world energy)
Biofuel/Biomass                     12
Peat                                12
Solar (rooftop)                      0.44 (0.2% of world energy for all solar)
Wind                                 0.15 (1.6% of world energy)
Hydro                                0.10 (europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy)
Hydro - world including Banqiao)     1.4 (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead)
Nuclear                              0.04 (5.9% of world energy)
warhed
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Offline pembquist

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2012, 06:24:22 PM »
Is it correct that you think my lack of enthusiasm for nuclear is based on a "feeling" and that the statistics that you cite prove that Nuclear is the safest energy source?  I would ask why are the solar statistics only for "rooftop" I would also ask how long has nuclear been generating power compared to wind or solar and doesn't that dilute those numbers? I would ask what is up with the biomass/peat burning statistics.  Are they based on first world highly regulated biofuel electric plants or are they based on heating huts and firing brick kilns the world over? My point is not that the statistics cited are untrue its that they are contextless and seem to be picked to reinforce a predetermined conclusion that nuclear is best. 

I am not arguing coal vs nuclear.  I'm not really arguing that you are not right in terms of deaths per kilowatt or that nuclear is the best option.  What I am arguing is that the consequences of a catastrophe in nuclear are much worse then the benefits and it comes down to a question of risk.  I am assuming that nuclear power plants are designed to a standard that makes the risk of a fukushima or chernobyl vanishingly small.  The problem is that we have had both.  Throw chernobyl out because it was in the Ukraine and a communist country and you still have Fukushima.  Doesn't that mean that there is a design failure? And doesn't that mean that despite whatever track record nuclear power has the industry has failed to manage risk to the extent that makes it as safe as advertised? Like I said, best worst option? I can respect that. I think based upon past results that you will get a melt down every few decades, maybe thats the price we pay, maybe its the cheapest price all things considered, but lets make it clear that that is the price.  I am assuming that Japan, Germany, Italy have decided its not worth it.  I personally don't know.









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Offline warhed

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2012, 07:36:24 PM »
So ignore the thousands that die every year from coal mining, and the millions affected by poisoning from coal power?   Just because a potential for a disaster that is over hyped?  Look at the facts in Japan.  A worst case scenario, and look at the loss of life, practically nil.  You simply cannot say that nuclear has even a larger potential for loss of life than coal.  You are greatly ignoring all the health problems and environmental problems caused by coal.  

A ticking atom bomb a nuclear plant is not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingston_Fossil_Plant_coal_fly_ash_slurry_spill
Compare that disaster to the one in Japan.  Which would you of rather lived near?
« Last Edit: November 21, 2012, 07:49:37 PM by warhed »
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Offline pembquist

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2012, 09:25:26 PM »
I give up. I'm not ignoring anything. I said explicitly that I am not arguing that coal is better than nuclear. I'm sorry I am unable to get my point across.

I don't see the point in comparing a coal slurry spill to Fukushima but since you ask:  Your link says the slurry spill covered 300 acres with slurry. The exclusion zone around Fukushima is 289 THOUSAND acres and Japan plans to clean up a fall out area of 8000 square MILES (Chernobyl's exclusion zone is 642,000 acres and that event was 26 years ago), (good luck with that Japan.) So when you ask which would you rather live "near" it depends upon how far away "near" is.

I hate this kind of bbs arguing, it makes me feel like a pissant and nobody ever convinces anybody of anything.  I'm in complete agreement with you about the downside of coal.  For example 2011 showed significant improvement in the Chinese coal miner accidental death rate: down to 2000. More than five souls a day is supposed to be good news.  Anyway like I said before your absolutely right that you need to look beyond the superficial thinking about these things and I take your positive view of nuclear power relative to other sources of power seriously.
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Offline VonMessa

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Re: Japan's Nuclear Meltdown
« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2012, 11:50:45 AM »
yawn...
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Offline Gryffin

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