Korea Conflict 3/31

[Plazus]

N and S Koreas exchanging shots again... It is only a matter of time until something escalates and more lives are taken.

http://news.msn.com/world/koreas-trade-fire-island-residents-in-shelters

[BreakingBad]

You know I bet only a quarter of the North Korean army vehicles actually work, the other 3/4 being used for spare parts to the keep the first quarter going.

South Korea is one of the largest economies in the world, well fed too.  I bet they would walk over NK if it came to that....Provided China didn't get involved. 

My guess is the Chinese view NK as not a problem until it becomes a problem.  In other words they won't invest military resources into NK unless it is purely in their own self interests to do so...my guess.

[mthrockmor]

Couple of ways to look at this. North Korea has a habit of 'rattling the saber' when they see weakness or fracture on the international scene. They do this and primariy China and the US will line up with foreign aide to settle them down.

The other is the slow paradigm shift that is taking place on the international scene. America is in decline economically and militarily. Couple that with an expanding China even Japan is reaching out to China in ways they have never. The 'order' is shifting. The final piece of this shifting order is the final dance of empires of debt. Wars are fought over resources, debt being a key element. The world has over $100 Trillion of fake debt running around. Everyone owes everyone and everyone is spending like they finally got paid what they had been owed. America's debt is well know yet China is suffering high interest rates with large banking and real estate failures. They are on the verge of a pretty big recession. Throw in energy issues.

Hopefully there is another way out of the woods though historically the easiest way is war. We'll see....more saber rattling or bigger dance.

[wpeters]

Couple of ways to look at this. North Korea has a habit of 'rattling the saber' when they see weakness or fracture on the international scene. They do this and primariy China and the US will line up with foreign aide to settle them down.

The other is the slow paradigm shift that is taking place on the international scene. America is in decline economically and militarily. Couple that with an expanding China even Japan is reaching out to China in ways they have never. The 'order' is shifting. The final piece of this shifting order is the final dance of empires of debt. Wars are fought over resources, debt being a key element. The world has over $100 Trillion of fake debt running around. Everyone owes everyone and everyone is spending like they finally got paid what they had been owed. America's debt is well know yet China is suffering high interest rates with large banking and real estate failures. They are on the verge of a pretty big recession. Throw in energy issues.

Hopefully there is another way out of the woods though historically the easiest way is war. We'll see....more saber rattling or bigger dance.

needless to say it is one of the best ways to controll a population

[ghi]

This video is part of the original "Killshot", uploaded on Tube  6 years ago, long before Fukushima event; I can't find the full size original; I used to listen Ed Dames live on Coast to Coast  years ago, I don't know what to believe about remote viewing but  he could be right again; around time 04;00  is talking about the use of nukes in Korean Peninsula;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1hc84x-nF0

[Nath[BDP]]

Couple of ways to look at this. North Korea has a habit of 'rattling the saber' when they see weakness or fracture on the international scene. They do this and primariy China and the US will line up with foreign aide to settle them down.

The other is the slow paradigm shift that is taking place on the international scene. America is in decline economically and militarily. Couple that with an expanding China even Japan is reaching out to China in ways they have never. The 'order' is shifting. The final piece of this shifting order is the final dance of empires of debt. Wars are fought over resources, debt being a key element. The world has over $100 Trillion of fake debt running around. Everyone owes everyone and everyone is spending like they finally got paid what they had been owed. America's debt is well know yet China is suffering high interest rates with large banking and real estate failures. They are on the verge of a pretty big recession. Throw in energy issues.

Hopefully there is another way out of the woods though historically the easiest way is war. We'll see....more saber rattling or bigger dance.

Don't believe Ameroca is stagnating.  Just attended a panel talk a few weeks ago with David Petreaus and the general idea was that the BRIC countries aren't progressing as well as everyone planned, meanwhile the US is discovering new sources of fuel, has a returning manufacturing sector, and is situated in a very lucrative North American partnership with Mexico and Canada.

[FLOOB]

Did you hear that DPRK says they're going to bomb south korea.. every day since 1951.

[Ack-Ack]

N and S Koreas exchanging shots again... It is only a matter of time until something escalates and more lives are taken.

http://news.msn.com/world/koreas-trade-fire-island-residents-in-shelters

This was one of the more cordial exchanges.  The DPRK actually faxed the ROK about their intentions prior to the 'test fire' and both kept the exchange to open waters.

ack-ack

[Plazus]

You know I bet only a quarter of the North Korean army vehicles actually work, the other 3/4 being used for spare parts to the keep the first quarter going.

South Korea is one of the largest economies in the world, well fed too.  I bet they would walk over NK if it came to that....Provided China didn't get involved. 

My guess is the Chinese view NK as not a problem until it becomes a problem.  In other words they won't invest military resources into NK unless it is purely in their own self interests to do so...my guess.

You might be right, but I wouldn't want to underestimate them... afterall, knowing is half the battle.

[Shane]

This... is what it always comes down to. The principles and specifics could be anyone, anywhen - as it has.

Couple of ways to look at this. North Korea has a habit of 'rattling the saber' when they see weakness or fracture on the international scene. They do this and primarily China and the US will line up with foreign aide to settle them down.

The other is the slow paradigm shift that is taking place on the international scene. America is in decline economically and militarily. Couple that with an expanding China even Japan is reaching out to China in ways they have never. The 'order' is shifting. The final piece of this shifting order is the final dance of empires of debt. Wars are fought over resources, debt being a key element. The world has over $100 Trillion of fake debt running around. Everyone owes everyone and everyone is spending like they finally got paid what they had been owed. America's debt is well know yet China is suffering high interest rates with large banking and real estate failures. They are on the verge of a pretty big recession. Throw in energy issues.

Hopefully there is another way out of the woods though historically the easiest way is war. We'll see....more saber rattling or bigger dance.

[SmokinLoon]

There are maps galore showing what an actual all out war would do to Korea.  Keep in mind that Seoul is within arty range of the norks, and there are thousands of pieces just itching to launch rounds in to the skyscrapers.

If the norks were stupid enough to do anything major it would be suicide.  At a minimum, the DMZ would be made larger so that the norks would have to stay back.  More likely they would be made an example of while the "diplomats" tried to make piece.  All interested parties would be sitting at a table tossing papers and measuring their noodlees while the US and South Korea wiped the clean the DMZ and the nork's military infrastructure all the while minimizing civilian casualties in hopes of winning hearts and minds so to speak.

The trump card would be just how involved China would be.  They equate a unified Korea even worse than the US viewed a communist Cuba during the hottest part of the Cold War.  So.... if they grow tired of the chubby premier of North Korea they may just go for it and sit back and let someone else clean up the block.  Somehow I doubt it though.     

[Changeup]

After 3 weeks of fighting, the DPRK would quit in starvation.

The DMZ has 44 miles of tunnels going under the border.  Those are the ones they know about.  5 divisions (armored) can fit in them

44% of all Koreans have a plan for gathering N and S family members in the South once it starts

49% of DPRK's officer corp already have a plan for a hostilities-start defection

1 out of every 34 DPRK artillery shells won't detonate

China will abstain due to socio-economic impact from international manufacturing withdrawal



Sejong Institute/Naval War College Asian Studies Koreas Assessment

[BreakingBad]

49% of DPRK's officer corp already have a plan for a hostilities-start defection

Sejong Institute/Naval War College Asian Studies Koreas Assessment

I wonder how they can really know that

[Curval]

If you haven't seen this yet I highly recommend it for some insights into NK.

(Done before Un came to power)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtuFaEy4jzE

[Changeup]

I wonder how they can really know that

Think Tanks use surveys and algorithms to come up with estimates.  None of it real, real but they probably are good for certain assumptions