Author Topic: Ebola coming to a town near you.  (Read 13178 times)

Offline guncrasher

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #210 on: October 08, 2014, 10:44:32 PM »
Yaknow what gets me? There are only 150 visitors a day coming to America from the three affected countries and all were doing is sticking a thermometer in them when they arrive to see if they have a fever.

What if they are infected yet not symptomatic ? What about the others on the planes they may have infected ? And what happens when those travelers go about their lives after being exposed?

Why are the rights of 150 a day, most of them not even citizens I bet, more important then the lives of 270,000,000 Americans ?

This country is ran by idiots.

more people die of the flu than of ebola in this country.  you want to ban them too?  there's a hundred more diseases that come from over seas that kills people every year.  but you get the first ebola case and you want to seal the borders.  heck i bet drunk tourists kill more americans than some diseases, how about banning all tourists.


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Offline Brooke

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #211 on: October 09, 2014, 02:57:46 AM »
more people die of the flu than of ebola in this country.  you want to ban them too?  there's a hundred more diseases that come from over seas that kills people every year.  but you get the first ebola case and you want to seal the borders.  heck i bet drunk tourists kill more americans than some diseases, how about banning all tourists.

semp

This is a fallacious argument.  Consider letting a toddler play with a revolver with a couple of rounds loaded and, when someone says "that's unwise," retorting with, "More people die in traffic accidents than die of partially loaded revolver accidents in this country.  You want to ban cars, too?"

Everything in life is a matter of cost/benefit analysis.  If you get more benefit than it costs you, it's good to do, otherwise not.

What do we get if we ban travel into the US from Ebola-ravaged countries?  We reduce probability of Ebola-infected people making it in among our population, mingling with family members, school kids, etc. (like what just happened).  We reduce probability of having to provide extremely expensive treatment to Ebola-infected visitors (like what just happened).  What is the cost to us if we ban travel?  Since amount of travel into the US from the Ebola countries is small, cost is small, perhaps mostly made up of the inconvenience of foreigners having to wait to travel until the Ebola epidemic is over.

Looking at it from the opposite point of view, what do we get if we let Liberians travel into the US?  A small number of Liberians are happier, since their travel isn't inconvenienced.  The people they visit are happier (unless their visitor turns up with Ebola).  Some US airlines might make a small amount of revenue (very small compared to other routes of travel, since those are much, much more frequent).  What is the cost?  If there is no Ebolo getting into the US, the cost is zero.  If there is no US transmission, but we have to treat a Liberian infected with Ebola, the cost is probably on order $1M per case (my estimates knowing what some of the costs are like).  If there is US transmission, the cost is *enormous*.  So, estimated cost is 0 + (probability of US transmission) * (enormous) + (number of imported Ebola cases) * $1M.  My feeling is that estimated cost is substantial because, although those probabilities are small, the cost multiplier is enormous.

Analyzing from both sides (two previous paragraphs) to me means it's much wiser to ban travel.  5-10 other nations seem to agree, as do 5-10 airlines, including British Airways, Korean Air, and Emirates Air Lines (all of which ban travel from Ebola countries).

Offline guncrasher

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #212 on: October 09, 2014, 04:41:44 AM »
This is a fallacious argument.  Consider letting a toddler play with a revolver with a couple of rounds loaded and, when someone says "that's unwise," retorting with, "More people die in traffic accidents than die of partially loaded revolver accidents in this country.  You want to ban cars, too?"

Everything in life is a matter of cost/benefit analysis.  If you get more benefit than it costs you, it's good to do, otherwise not.

What do we get if we ban travel into the US from Ebola-ravaged countries?  We reduce probability of Ebola-infected people making it in among our population, mingling with family members, school kids, etc. (like what just happened).  We reduce probability of having to provide extremely expensive treatment to Ebola-infected visitors (like what just happened).  What is the cost to us if we ban travel?  Since amount of travel into the US from the Ebola countries is small, cost is small, perhaps mostly made up of the inconvenience of foreigners having to wait to travel until the Ebola epidemic is over.

Looking at it from the opposite point of view, what do we get if we let Liberians travel into the US?  A small number of Liberians are happier, since their travel isn't inconvenienced.  The people they visit are happier (unless their visitor turns up with Ebola).  Some US airlines might make a small amount of revenue (very small compared to other routes of travel, since those are much, much more frequent).  What is the cost?  If there is no Ebolo getting into the US, the cost is zero.  If there is no US transmission, but we have to treat a Liberian infected with Ebola, the cost is probably on order $1M per case (my estimates knowing what some of the costs are like).  If there is US transmission, the cost is *enormous*.  So, estimated cost is 0 + (probability of US transmission) * (enormous) + (number of imported Ebola cases) * $1M.  My feeling is that estimated cost is substantial because, although those probabilities are small, the cost multiplier is enormous.

Analyzing from both sides (two previous paragraphs) to me means it's much wiser to ban travel.  5-10 other nations seem to agree, as do 5-10 airlines, including British Airways, Korean Air, and Emirates Air Lines (all of which ban travel from Ebola countries).

dude we have lost billions of dollars because of parasites/fish/flowers... that came from other countries.  you really want to isolate the usa from all travel.  what about a us citizen catching ebola from going to france and have a couple of drinks at a bar where somebody from Liberia just happened to be there also having a drink and is infected.  or are you so naive to think that Liberians only travel to the usa.

what about the 4 doctors/missionaries  that were brought back to the usa even though they were infected.  should we have left them back there?  after all they knew the risks of going to treat patients there.

here's an interesting fact:

"In addition, CDC notes that an outbreak in Nigeria started by a Liberian-American man who traveled after he got sick has now been stopped. “During the outbreak, there were 19 laboratory-confirmed and one probable Ebola cases in two Nigerian states. Nearly 900 patient contacts were identified and followed; all but three have completed 21 days of follow-up period without Ebola symptoms,” CDC says."

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/what-we-know-about-texas-ebola-patient-n215451


semp


 
you dont want me to ho, dont point your plane at me.

Offline Randy1

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #213 on: October 09, 2014, 06:51:17 AM »
(Image removed from quote.)



Do just a bit of research on infection rates and epidemic modeling.  You will see that the fight must be won at the very first outbreak before the numbers go up exponentially.   

Offline Delirium

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #214 on: October 09, 2014, 07:03:35 AM »
The other issue is the fact that as Ebola is RNA virus and is very prone to mutations. This makes it much more dangerous and could potentially change the transmission of the disease overnight. The larger the number of cases of Ebola, the greater the risk a mutation could occur that could make the outbreak catastrophic.

(DNA viruses tend to mutate less as they have more mechanisms to minimize mutation during the different stages of replication)
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Offline Rich46yo

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #215 on: October 09, 2014, 08:53:00 AM »
more people die of the flu than of ebola in this country.  you want to ban them too?  there's a hundred more diseases that come from over seas that kills people every year.  but you get the first ebola case and you want to seal the borders.  heck i bet drunk tourists kill more americans than some diseases, how about banning all tourists.
semp

I only want to seal the borders from the three countries in Africa affected. Thats a total of 150 a day into America, "next time read my post". The only way to beat this thing is to beat it over there, oh and BTW the flu doesnt have a 90% death rate from infection.

One other thing for you to consider. Each and every time a new infection occurs the virus itself slightly mutates. Eventually its going to mutate into a easily transmittable virus like flu and if that happens were all dead. So the longer they play around with this the worse its going to get, perhaps eventually, like small pox did, killing 30% of mankind. Or probably worse since theres no treatment or cure and the thing is so lethal.
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Offline FLOOB

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #216 on: October 09, 2014, 09:03:45 AM »
As it is ebola virus is very nearly as transmissible as influenza, hence the positive pressure suits. As far as mutations, google reston virus.
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Offline mthrockmor

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #217 on: October 09, 2014, 11:10:17 AM »
Has anyone read emergency plans adopted by every State in the Union in regards to these epidemics?

I remember when H1-bird flu was the big threat I and others demanded that the State of Utah review and update their pandemic plans, which had been crafted around the time of the 2002 SLC Winter Olympics. When people began to read what was in place they realized some overzealous Nazis had written them. What was created was essentially a dictatorial, police state with virtual all democratic institutions neutered. They quietly began to change things so we were not akin to 1930's Germany. Every State has some version of this junk.

The threat is not H1-flu, Ebola, or even terrorists. These all pose real threats. The biggest fear is the overreaction.

Calm decisions will always make for better outcomes.

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Offline Randy1

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #218 on: October 09, 2014, 11:25:16 AM »
The biggest fear is the overreaction.

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I way say under reaction is far more dangerous than overreaction.

If that Texas man would have under reacted to his illness, it would have been bad.  As it was they underacted at the hospital the first time.

Offline MrRiplEy[H]

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #219 on: October 09, 2014, 11:50:56 AM »
I way say under reaction is far more dangerous than overreaction.

If that Texas man would have under reacted to his illness, it would have been bad.  As it was they underacted at the hospital the first time.

I wonder if Ebola can have an animal host... The vomit was flushed to the sewer system which contains almost 100% sure rats.
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Offline darkzking

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #220 on: October 09, 2014, 12:21:05 PM »
i believe only monkeys and humans can get ebola
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Offline Arlo

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #221 on: October 09, 2014, 12:35:14 PM »
i believe only monkeys and humans can get ebola

I wouldn't bet my life on that. The Spanish nurse's dog was put down as a precaution.

Online zack1234

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #222 on: October 09, 2014, 12:51:05 PM »
We are related to monkeys an this is the proof
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Offline kilo2

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #223 on: October 09, 2014, 02:19:24 PM »
i believe only monkeys and humans can get ebola

Swine can also get it.
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Offline Randy1

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Re: Ebola coming to a town near you.
« Reply #224 on: October 09, 2014, 02:50:26 PM »
I worry about countries outside of Africa that are less capable of dealing with an epidemic.  Places that may launch new sources for all other countries.