Author Topic: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island  (Read 4506 times)

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #60 on: February 04, 2015, 12:18:14 AM »
Agree.  Well stated.  I read somewhere that if Greece walked away from the EU/debt it could very well end up on top while the rest of the west went down the tubes.  I'll have to go find source and re-read it and think about it.


An enormous debt burden is a huge problem, and greatly reducing it is (if there weren't large negative consequences) a large advantage.

However, a country running up too much debt has happened a multitude of times in history, and all of the ways of dealing with it (default, renegotiation, inflation, growing out of it) have all been done a multitude of times in history.  So, we can see how each of those approaches to the problem works out.  We just look at the last 10 examples and see what happened.

Getting the financial house in order and growing out of it is best, of course, but rare when a country gets itself in so far over its head.  The US managed to grow out of enormous debt just after WWII, but I doubt that Greece can grow its way out of the current problem.  Default, renegotiation, and inflation all result in the lender getting a hair cut.  Renegotiation probably works the best, and that's probably what will happen in Greece, because default usually results in disaster for the lender and borrower both.  Inflation isn't wholely available because Greece can't print Euros, but the EU itself can print Euros (which it is doing) which can help some but not solve the problem unless they manage to create significant inflation (which I doubt the EU would be able to do even if it wanted).  If they are highly inept, they will default and experience things taught many times already in history.

What is the root cause of this mess?  It's not a mystery.  Case 1:  You borrow so much money that you can't make the interest payments, and you blow that borrowed money on paying your cousin Vinny to lean on a shovel.  When you run out of money, you can't pay the interest, you can't pay Vinny, Vinny can't get another job, and Vinny can't buy stuff or feed his family.  Case 2:  You borrow money (but not so much that you can't make the interest payments) and you invest it in your cousin Vinny's productive, growing business so that it can grow faster and hire more people.  Not only can you make the interest payments, but your income is growing so that debt/GDP is shrinking.  Greece didn't do Case 2.

Neither did the US, China, or Japan, though.

Offline oldskool65

  • Copper Member
  • **
  • Posts: 130
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #61 on: February 04, 2015, 10:06:40 AM »
I got a great idea (Skuzzy THIS IS A JOKE DO NOT TAKE SERIOUSLY) why don't the Greeks  start a war that's what the Germans did it worked look at Germany now
Of course I'm right I'm British

Offline PR3D4TOR

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2884
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #62 on: February 04, 2015, 11:14:33 AM »
With what?
No gods or kings. Only Predator.

Offline SysError

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1009
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #63 on: February 04, 2015, 01:22:30 PM »
...
This Time is Different, by Reinhart and Rogoff
Basic Economics, by Sowell
The Return of Depression Economics, by Krugman
The Big Short, by Lewis
Endgame, by Mauldin and Tepper
Code Red, by Mauldin and Tepper
The Death of Money, by Rickards

I've been following this post.  I've been thinking of contributing.  But before I do, I have questions.  I noticed that your list here had Sowell and Krugman.  Well that is interesting I thought.  Interesting mix.

later I saw:

... it's the economics of Hayek, von Mises, Bastiat, Sowell, Hazlitt, etc.

Von Mises and Sowell, but no Krugman here.  I used google on the others, well one I knew of from many years ago and had forgotten about and, I got a very brief sense/perceptive on the others.  I am fully wiling to admit that few moments on google is not going come anywhere close to understanding what I assume are the considered arguments and theories of these individuals.  But if I was to assume that their intellectual home base was the Austrian school I do not think that I'd be far off the mark.  I wonder if you would, in general, agree with my assumption?

My other question is what is that you found so interesting about Krugman to list him?


 
=======================
SysError

Dante's Crew

Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #64 on: February 04, 2015, 05:53:02 PM »
Von Mises and Sowell, but no Krugman here.  . . . But if I was to assume that their intellectual home base was the Austrian school . . .

My other question is what is that you found so interesting about Krugman to list him?

Yes, I find the Austrian school more persuasive than the Keynsian school.  Krugman is a Keynsian luminary.  I like Krugman's "Return of Depression Economics" for three reasons.

First, it is interesting to me that Krugman and the Austrians agree on a large chunk of economics (market-determined wages vs. the idea of it being exploitation; how Singapore, South Korea, etc. worked their way up to 1st world status; the value of free markets; etc.).  Where they have a major disagreement is on whether Keynsian policies *in time of trouble* are good or bad.

Second is that Krugman goes through a lot of economic history, especially of Latin America.  Although it is filtered through a Keynsian lense, it is still very interesting to me.

Third is that I figured Krugman would have the strongest, most-persuasive arguments for Keynsianism, so if I were wrong in my assessment of it, I figured he'd be the best guy to show me that.  What I saw, though, was a large number of cases that went as follows.  A country did some foolish things economically or even got unlucky and then had a chance to smooth it over with appropriate Keynsian policy.  Then either of two things happened:  (1) the country tried Keynsian policy but did it incorrectly and had a disaster, or (2) they tried Keynsian policy, got it right for a while, but didn't stop the money fire hose once things had improved and had a disaster.  I don't recall from the book's multitude of examples cases where a country did it right and then stopped printing money when it should and was thus fine thereafter.

That -- precisely -- is why I think Keynsianism is bad.  It has to operate in the real world of humans, not in the realm of a person or group with unassailable authority and perfect (or even good-enough) judgement.  The common imperfections include:

1. Wasting the money on things that actually subtract from benefit, like giving the stimulus to nonproductive uses that crowd out productive ones, using it to increase burdensome bureaucracy that harms growth thereafter, giving it to cronies and thus feeding corruption and cronyism, and spending it to make systems or things that are not useful but start soaking up lots of future money to be maintained; and

2.  Doing a great job but then not being able to turn off the money fire hose for political and popular reasons (because, hey, if pressing the gas pedal to the floor in bad times made things better, keeping it pressed to floor always is the way to go).  That's what politicians and the average public opinion often ends up being.  There's too much resistance to taking one's foot off the gas, and so things stay floored too long, building up a bubble that has to be dangerously obvious before things chance, then it is too late, like in the lead up to 2000, to 2008, and to current times (after 7 years of zero interest rate).

What Krugman's book showed me is that Keynsianism doesn't work in practice because of the reality of human imperfection.

That's why free markets work.  They don't require human perfection, or the correct pick of some special person or group with ultimate authority, or perfect judgement.

Offline SysError

  • Silver Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1009
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #65 on: February 04, 2015, 08:56:23 PM »
thank you for the reply.

I think that I would like to go find an old reference, read, and refresh my memory.  And perhaps think a little.

I'll try to post sooner rather than later.

 :cool:

=======================
SysError

Dante's Crew

Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #66 on: February 09, 2015, 04:54:33 PM »
It looks like there will be major decisions this month with respect to Greek debt.  We might find out soon whether debt is renegotiated or defaulted on.

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #67 on: June 29, 2015, 03:15:36 AM »
Looks like the day has come, with Greek banks shutting down on Monday and capital controls going up out of desperation.

I am sorry for the people and nation of Greece.

I also think, though, that Greece is a preview of what most nations (the rest of Europe and the US included) are going to get their own full taste of.

Offline Perrine

  • Nickel Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 654
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #68 on: June 29, 2015, 03:36:35 AM »
Lehman Brothers shock 2-squared  :uhoh
(or even 3-cubed!  :bhead)
... NOW UNDERWAY!

> 08:01:25 - SHARES IN BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUES DOWN 9.6 PERCENT

> 08:02:13 - SHARES IN BANCA POPOLARE DI SONDRIO DOWN 9.7 PERCENT

> 08:02:38 - FRANCE’S BNP PARIBAS SHARES DOWN 7 PCT, SOCGEN DOWN 5.8 PCT, AFTER GREECE SHUTS BANKS, IMPOSES CAPITAL CONTROLS

> 08:02:53 - SHARES IN BANK OF IRELAND DOWN 8 PERCENT

> 08:04:00 - UK HSBC SHARES DOWN 2.2 PCT, BARCLAYS DOWN 4 PCT, FRANCE’S CREDIT AGRICOLE DOWN 8 PCT, NATIXIS DOWN 9 PCT AFTER GREECE IMPOSES CAPITAL CONTROLS

> 08:04:08 - SHARES IN ERSTE GROUP BANK DOWN 6.1 PERCENT

> 08:04:47 - SHARES IN RAIFFEISEN DOWN 14.4 PERCENT

> 08:06:20 - SHARES IN COMMERZBANK DOWN 7.1 PERCENT

> 08:06:29 - SPAIN’S BBVA SHARES DOWN 8.4 PCT, DEUTSCHE BANK DOWN 6.3 PCT, ING GROUP DOWN 5 PCT AFTER GREECE SHUTS BANKS

> 08:07:17 - SHARES IN BANKIA DOWN 8.4 PERCENT

> 08:09:07 - SPAIN’S SANTANDER SHARES DOWN 8.5 PCT AFTER GREECE IMPOSES CAPITAL CONTROLS
« Last Edit: June 29, 2015, 03:47:08 AM by Perrine »

Offline Perrine

  • Nickel Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 654
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #69 on: June 29, 2015, 03:51:12 AM »
I also think, though, that Greece is a preview of what most nations (the rest of Europe and the US included) are going to get their own full taste of.

USA and Japan (with much more severe debt to GDP ratio) will be an exception.

Offline Scherf

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3409
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #70 on: June 29, 2015, 05:29:52 AM »
I really don't understand the Greeks right now. Some of the things I hear coming out of there are just, well, bizarre. For example:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33179593?post_id=10153307633818796_10153307633808796

I mean, what?

Seems as though the Greeks want to go back to the good old days of good times and easy money, except that the easy money was always borrowed, from people who no longer want to throw good money after bad.

I rather think that, despite the exposure of the rest of the European banking system (which no doubt will turn out to be more extensive than initially, ah, reported, Minister...) Greece needs the lenders more than the lenders need Greece.
... missions were to be met by the commitment of alerted swarms of fighters, composed of Me 109's and Fw 190's, that were strategically based to protect industrial installations. The inferior capabilities of these fighters against the Mosquitoes made this a hopeless and uneconomical effort. 1.JD KTB

Offline DREDIOCK

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 17773
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #71 on: June 29, 2015, 08:00:21 AM »
This thread is worthless without pics of those dark-haired, smoky-eyed beauties.

Here ya go!





Death is no easy answer
For those who wish to know
Ask those who have been before you
What fate the future holds
It ain't pretty

Offline Lusche

  • Radioactive Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 23888
      • Last.FM Profile
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #72 on: June 29, 2015, 08:41:45 AM »
 :x
Steam: DrKalv
E:D Snailman

Offline MrRiplEy[H]

  • Persona Non Grata
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 11633
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #73 on: June 29, 2015, 10:55:26 AM »
If Greece will drop out of euro they will become very poor with the new currency. That's great news for a country that lives from tourism and has recently discovered oil and gas along with awesome agricultural products, wine etc. Tourists will flock in, money flows and greeks will prosper again.
Definiteness of purpose is the starting point of all achievement. –W. Clement Stone

Offline Brooke

  • Aces High CM Staff
  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 15545
      • http://www.electraforge.com/brooke/
Re: I've always wanted to own my own Greek island
« Reply #74 on: June 29, 2015, 04:39:13 PM »
USA and Japan (with much more severe debt to GDP ratio) will be an exception.

Which of these things do you think will happen, then?
1.  The US and Japan will grow out of their debt (i.e., grow GDP significantly faster than debt for the next several decades).
2.  The US and Japan will run budget surpluses for the next several decades and pay off the debt.
3.  The debt of US and Japan is irrelevant and can stay the same or keep growing with no economic consequence.

If you believe 1 will happen, will it be through inflation or real growth?  If you believe that 2 will happen, will it be through large increases in tax revenue or large reductions in government spending?  If you believe that 3 will happen, then at what level does debt matter?