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Author Topic: Sandy part duex?  (Read 1946 times)

Offline Chris79

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Sandy part duex?
« on: September 29, 2015, 03:49:16 PM »
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Chuikov

Offline mbailey

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2015, 04:22:30 PM »
Nah.......were keeping an eye on it at work.....heavy rains at worst
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Mbailey
80th FS "Headhunters"
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Character is like a tree and reputation like its shadow. The shadow is what we think of it; the tree is the real thing.

When the game is over, the Kings and Pawns all go into the same box.

Offline NatCigg

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2015, 06:10:52 PM »
gfs model would paint 8+ inches if rain over pennsylvania. The euro has more rain around the chesapeake bay.  the forcast confidence is very low right now, some of the lowest all year.

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/746010265001/flooding-rains-east-this-week?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin
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Offline ghi

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2015, 11:10:14 PM »
"Joaquin Expected to Become a Hurricane Later Tonight or Wednesday"
 http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane-central/AL112015

  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

crazy how many weather forecast models they have; according with some of this could affect NY/Boston area, Sunday oct 4th;;
https://twitter.com/albo1912/status/648326287799398400






« Last Edit: September 29, 2015, 11:18:58 PM by ghi »
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Offline mbailey

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2015, 05:10:43 AM »
Saw that GHI   They're saying poss cat 2 by tonight/tommorow but should be a cat 1 / TS by the time it makes landfall. I'm guessing between DelMarVa and Ny. Thank goodness nothing like Sandy.....fall 2012/2013 is a blur....never been so busy in my life.

I live in SE PA (near Allentown) and we could use the rain....now 8" not so much lol. Although it will put me at ease worrying about my well.
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Mbailey
80th FS "Headhunters"
Ichi Go Ichi E
Character is like a tree and reputation like its shadow. The shadow is what we think of it; the tree is the real thing.

When the game is over, the Kings and Pawns all go into the same box.

Offline NatCigg

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2015, 06:04:00 AM »
Quote from: mbailey on September 30, 2015, 05:10:43 AM
Saw that GHI   They're saying poss cat 2 by tonight/tommorow but should be a cat 1 / TS by the time it makes landfall. I'm guessing between DelMarVa and Ny. Thank goodness nothing like Sandy.....fall 2012/2013 is a blur....never been so busy in my life.

I live in SE PA (near Allentown) and we could use the rain....now 8" not so much lol. Although it will put me at ease worrying about my well.
I'm not from around there but 8 inches in the mountains, after a dry year, eek.  Sounds life threatening and a little like sandy.
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Offline NatCigg

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2015, 03:13:38 PM »
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Offline mbailey

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2015, 05:14:34 PM »
Quote from: NatCigg on September 30, 2015, 06:04:00 AM
I'm not from around there but 8 inches in the mountains, after a dry year, eek.  Sounds life threatening and a little like sandy.

Nah.....Sandy was a certified monster storm. They were actually rain bands affecting Chicago when he came ashore in Jersey/New York. The scary part of the rain with this storm is the fact that between yesterday, today and for for tommorow,we've already got/predicted to get about 4 inches so the ground is saturated add another 8 inches on top of that and it's going to be a bit messy. Time will tell should know a bit more by Friday Saturday. I do know that my work is already looking for volunteers to go to storm hit areas. But in all honesty I would take this storm over Sandy every day of the week.
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Mbailey
80th FS "Headhunters"
Ichi Go Ichi E
Character is like a tree and reputation like its shadow. The shadow is what we think of it; the tree is the real thing.

When the game is over, the Kings and Pawns all go into the same box.

Offline SIM

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2015, 06:38:39 PM »
My company is already putting together travel teams for this storm. So far we've been told to pack for seven days........


Pole dancing gets interesting some times......
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Offline Chris79

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2015, 06:45:59 PM »
In terms of shear intensity, this storm will be stronger then Sandy. What made Sandy such a "monster" was that she transitioned from a tropical cyclone into a mid latitude cyclone. During that transition even though Sandy's pressure increased and wind speed decreased, the overall size of the storm expanded. It seems as though the forecast models will keep Joaquin a strictly tropical entity at landfall and possibly a Cat 3.
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Chuikov

Offline Ripsnort

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2015, 06:56:40 PM »
Wait for Ghi "Worlds coming to an end except where I live" to show up. He'll tell you.


Edit: LOL, he already has. ;)
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Offline mbailey

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2015, 05:12:58 AM »
Quote from: Chris79 on September 30, 2015, 06:45:59 PM
In terms of shear intensity, this storm will be stronger then Sandy. What made Sandy such a "monster" was that she transitioned from a tropical cyclone into a mid latitude cyclone. During that transition even though Sandy's pressure increased and wind speed decreased, the overall size of the storm expanded. It seems as though the forecast models will keep Joaquin a strictly tropical entity at landfall and possibly a Cat 3.

The models show nicking NC as a cat 1 and heading N up the DelMarVa as a TS. That swipe of NC would kill it fairly quickly, bring it to a (intensity/ damage forcast) similar to Hurr Irene 2011 or TS Lee in the same year. Sandy was much worse than this one (at the moment that is....that could all go to hash real quick tho. Wait and see I suppose. (Don't get me wrong, both of those storms sucked and I'm sure this one won't be a picnic...but nothing  like Sandy)

Good news is it looks like she may track west ....fingers crossed. Then again she may track directly at the bridge of my nose.....I hate this time in tracking these storms it's either Armageddon or nothing to worry about...I'm thinking 8pm tommorow we will have a better handle on it. Personally I'd rather she hit inland than skirt the coast....we would be on the NW side of the storm....
« Last Edit: October 01, 2015, 05:26:13 AM by mbailey »
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Mbailey
80th FS "Headhunters"
Ichi Go Ichi E
Character is like a tree and reputation like its shadow. The shadow is what we think of it; the tree is the real thing.

When the game is over, the Kings and Pawns all go into the same box.

Offline NatCigg

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2015, 12:11:45 PM »
12z gfs has staying off shore.  This similar to what the euro said all along.  :rolleyes:
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Offline mbailey

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2015, 02:49:12 PM »
Yep fingers crossed.... Cat4 now tho, bit breezy  :D
« Last Edit: October 01, 2015, 02:52:13 PM by mbailey »
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Mbailey
80th FS "Headhunters"
Ichi Go Ichi E
Character is like a tree and reputation like its shadow. The shadow is what we think of it; the tree is the real thing.

When the game is over, the Kings and Pawns all go into the same box.

Offline NatCigg

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Re: Sandy part duex?
« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2015, 07:49:20 PM »
Quote from: mbailey on October 01, 2015, 02:49:12 PM
Yep fingers crossed.... Cat4 now tho, bit breezy  :D

Yeah cat 3 east of Georgia was not forecast yesterday. Tho they say the costal front will shear the storm. Hope it does not get sucked up the soon to be inverted trough.  That would be similar sandy.
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