Author Topic: One second after  (Read 4404 times)

Offline Bodhi

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Re: One second after
« Reply #30 on: December 04, 2015, 05:57:52 PM »
WaffenVW,
Perhaps I misinterpreted where you suggested that the vast majority of the population would not die.  In the situation described in the book, or similar, it is unlikely that more that 80% of the population would survive.  Survival rate would be higher in the heartlands, almost non-existent in the urban and desert environments.  My bet is that disease would kill greater than 50% of those that die, probably closer to 60%.  Chaos and lawlessness, 10%.  Starvation, the remainder.
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Offline WaffenVW

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Re: One second after
« Reply #31 on: December 04, 2015, 06:50:03 PM »
80% seems like as good a number as any for pure speculation. People would likely be on their own for a week, but a major disaster relief effort would begin almost immediately. Most of the major population concentrations are accessible from the sea, so ships would be the primary means of delivering aid. Airports would be cleared of disabled aircraft within a day. One fixed farmer's tractor could do the job and with enough hands they could push the jets out of the way if necessary. And lets not forget the U.S. Navy. Each one of those super carriers is a nuclear power plant capable of powering a city.  It would be an enormous international undertaking to save America, but I'm not as pessimistic as some doomsayers.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2015, 06:56:32 PM by WaffenVW »

Offline WaffenVW

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Re: One second after
« Reply #32 on: December 04, 2015, 06:55:55 PM »
Just reading about the international response to hurricane Katrina is enough to make me a cautious optimist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_response_to_Hurricane_Katrina

Offline WaffenVW

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Re: One second after
« Reply #33 on: December 04, 2015, 07:19:52 PM »
But in the event the world descends into chaos and nuclear war, and the survivors are forced to fight over the scraps of civilization. This will be my ride.


Offline Bodhi

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Re: One second after
« Reply #34 on: December 04, 2015, 11:00:06 PM »
WaffenVW,
Again, I don't mean to be rude, but I think you are vastly misunderstanding the logistics of trying to bring food, let alone medicines, sanitary products, and water to close to 400 million.  While many live close to the coast, that still does not mean a week response.  I am not 100% sure, but loading a ship can take days.  Crossing the Atlantic (East Coast Only) takes more days.  How do they unload when they get there?  There's no power, no ability to move ships already tied up.  How then, do you unload the ship?  Ship borne crane?  Ok, how do you transport the supplies.

Debating the semantics of percentages is kind of moot, but the reality is that an attack in this scenario would kill the vast majority of Americans in the ensuing months.
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Offline mthrockmor

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Re: One second after
« Reply #35 on: December 04, 2015, 11:35:23 PM »
WaffenVW,
Again, I don't mean to be rude, but I think you are vastly misunderstanding the logistics of trying to bring food, let alone medicines, sanitary products, and water to close to 400 million.  While many live close to the coast, that still does not mean a week response.  I am not 100% sure, but loading a ship can take days.  Crossing the Atlantic (East Coast Only) takes more days.  How do they unload when they get there?  There's no power, no ability to move ships already tied up.  How then, do you unload the ship?  Ship borne crane?  Ok, how do you transport the supplies.

Debating the semantics of percentages is kind of moot, but the reality is that an attack in this scenario would kill the vast majority of Americans in the ensuing months.

Within 3 days massive riots breakout in large cities. Within 2 weeks suburban America sees social breakdown, chaos follows. Militias form, battles fought, die offs begin. It gets ugly. What benefit would the Russians or Chinese have in doing such a thing? Jihadists, such as ISIS/L, God forbid they should ever get any weapons!!

boo
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Offline WaffenVW

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Re: One second after
« Reply #36 on: December 04, 2015, 11:46:03 PM »
In a port city people can carry the food and supplies. It's not like they have anything better to do. And the U.N. World Food Program is supplying food to 80 million people in 75 countries, so it'd not like there aren't people and organizations out there with experience in this sort of thing. A full years worth of food (survival rations) for 400 million people equals roughly 100 million tons. Bulk carriers can carry up to about half a million tons, so we're talking about a few hundred, perhaps a thousand ship loads over a years time. Say three per day, should not pose much of a logistical problem for the world's shipping companies.

Now that's the case if the rest of the world has to provide for the whole population, but the U.S. have her own emergency stores of grain and other supplies. Again people will have to distribute it with whatever means of transportation is available. Ox and cart if need be, but I think a lot of older/simpler vehicles (like pre-1980s) can be fixed pretty quick and put into service.

The biggest issue is whether the nation can pull together and maintain a civilized society until these issues are worked out. The National Guard will have plenty of work cut out for them.


Offline Brooke

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Re: One second after
« Reply #37 on: December 05, 2015, 12:06:33 AM »
Katrina caused displacement of 1 million people.  Wiping out all US electricity and vehicles would be like the displacement of 300 million people.


Offline WaffenVW

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Re: One second after
« Reply #38 on: December 05, 2015, 06:04:39 AM »
Not quite...

Offline Mongoose

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Re: One second after
« Reply #39 on: December 05, 2015, 09:26:20 AM »
 So here's my question. What would it take to harden electronics against EMP?
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Offline pipz

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Re: One second after
« Reply #40 on: December 05, 2015, 09:45:24 AM »
But in the event the world descends into chaos and nuclear war, and the survivors are forced to fight over the scraps of civilization. This will be my ride.

(Image removed from quote.)

Outstanding choice!  :aok
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Offline ghi

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Re: One second after
« Reply #41 on: December 05, 2015, 10:39:46 AM »
WaffenVW,
  If (I don't believe it will happen) a coordinated EMP attack on the US were to occur, the every aspect of modern life that we know of is shut down. 

 From what I see in news over past weeks,  could happen anytime; they are pushing vs Russia;
 You got sick evil monsters running your country over past 10-15 years, sinking your own economy in debt, slaughtering  and displacing millions of poor people across the middle east, with wars and proxy wars, flooding Europe; what for? 
 You live in the  richest land on Earth, got everything can grow food from Maine to Washington state; What's this bloody crusade about?

 Why are  American people accepting what your government is doing?  :furious :bhead










« Last Edit: December 05, 2015, 10:48:29 AM by ghi »

Offline Brooke

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Re: One second after
« Reply #42 on: December 05, 2015, 12:49:22 PM »
Not quite...

Here's why I think so.

A person needs water, food, and -- depending on the environment -- shelter.  For the 1 million people displaced by Katrina, it was the lack of some or all of those that lead to displacement to a location that had all three.  But if you lack any one of these, you are just as surely in a condition of displacement since, if you don't get to a place that has all three, you will die.

If all electricity and vehicles are disabled in the US, within a short time, most people will lack water and food, and cities would have dangerous sanitation problems.  If it is the middle of winter, people would freeze to death in some regions.

So, I think it would be 300 times worse than Katrina (or more than that, if you consider deaths, since about 1800 people died from Katrina in the US, and I suspect a lot more than 540,000 would die if the whole US received a thorough EMP attack).

Even if it weren't, though, even if it were only like a few Katrinas, that is still very bad and very much worth taking inexpensive precautions (inexpensive compared to national-scale boondoggles that the US wastes its money on).

(Also, I'm not considering the effect on nuclear power plants, as brought up above.  Maybe they would be OK, maybe not -- I don't know.)
« Last Edit: December 05, 2015, 12:54:18 PM by Brooke »

Offline Bodhi

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Re: One second after
« Reply #43 on: December 05, 2015, 06:47:21 PM »
Ghi,
I am sorry, but take your politics and stick them in your arse.
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Offline Bodhi

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Re: One second after
« Reply #44 on: December 05, 2015, 06:59:32 PM »
WaffenVW,
Again, I don't think you grasp the concept of total shut down of infrastructure.  It means that nothing, zilch, nadda, is working.  Add to it the clogged roads, railroads, and waterways, and you can't move anything. 

You suggested using an ox cart...  Where do you get the cart?  What about the "ox"?  How about trying to keep that "ox" alive while the people around are starving?  What about the people that want the stuff on the cart for themselves and to further their abitions?

You also suggested a 100 millions tons of emergency rations being needed to support the population for a year....  Interesting figure, where'd you get it?  If it is the case, where does the food come from?  Who makes it?  What's the lead time to get it?  How do you transport it? 

Again, I'm not trying to be rude, but you seem to think that feeding the population will be easy.  You should read the reports from the EMP Commission.  They are very eye opening.
I regret doing business with TD Computer Systems.